SUNDAY HOMEWORK:
Volume shelf/volume gap setups are showing up in many names into next week.
Learn what these mean and how you can profit from them.
Video: https://t.co/6DCkPpP0le
@theaiportfolios Why would you only sell due to fundamental analysis and not also technical analysis? Even a good company can have an ugly chart for months. I guess depends on your time horizon and if you plan to hold as long as fundamentals donโt change? But also consider opportunity costs..
Most people selling CSPs pick their strike randomly. Thatโs why they panic when the stock dips. ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ถ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด.
Hereโs how I think about it using $NVDA ๐
๐๐ถ๐ฟ๐๐, ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ
Delta on a put tells you the approximate probability the option expires in the money (ITM).
In plain English:
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ -๐ฌ.๐ฏ๐ฌ = ~30% chance the stock lands below your strike at expiration
๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ -๐ฌ.๐ญ๐ฑ = ~15% chance
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ, ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ but also the less premium you collect. Itโs always a tradeoff.
๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ป $๐ก๐ฉ๐๐
Letโs say $NVDA is trading at $180. Youโre looking at a 30-day expiration. Hereโs how the zones break down:
โ ๐๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ: $๐ญ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ (~๐ฌ.๐ญ๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ)
Premium: ~$1.80/share ($180/contract)
NVDA has to drop 13%+ before youโre in trouble. Low risk, lower reward. Great if you just want to collect and move on.
โ๏ธ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฑ: $๐ญ๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ (~๐ฌ.๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ)
Premium: ~3.40/share ($340/contract)
A meaningful 9% buffer below current price. This is ๐ฎ๐บ ๐ด๐ธ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ต ๐ด๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ต on a high-conviction name like $NVDA. Youโre getting paid well and still have room to breathe.
๐ฅ ๐๐ด๐ด๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ: $๐ญ๐ณ๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ (~๐ฌ.๐ฏ๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น๐๐ฎ)
Premium: ~$8.00/share ($800/contract)
Juicy premium but only a 2% cushion. One bad event and youโre assigned. Only go here if you ๐ข๐ค๐ต๐ถ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐บ want NVDA shares at $175.
๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ ๐ง๐ถ๐ฝ๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐ฒ๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐
๐ฐ๐๐น๐๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐น๐ผ๐ ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐๐ฝ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐. Check the chart. If $NVDA has strong support at $165, that $165 strike just became even more attractive.
๐ฐ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐๐ฉ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ป๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐. NVDAโs implied volatility spikes before earnings, which inflates premiums. That $3.40 at the $160 strike could become $6.00+ pre-earnings. Some people love this. I personally avoid selling CSPs into earnings.
๐ฐ๐๐๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐น๐ณ ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ ๐พ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด: โAm I happy owning 100 shares of $NVDA at this strike price?โ If the answer is noโฆmove your strike down until it is.
Premium chasing on a strike youโd hate to be assigned is how traders blow up accounts.
BREAKING: Trump just officially told Congress, the Iran war is over.
In a letter to Congressional leaders, Trump wrote that there has been no exchange of fire between US forces and Iran since April 7, 2026 and that hostilities have been terminated.
This move allows the White House to bypass the 60-day Congressional approval deadline under the War Powers Resolution.
But if hostilities resume, the clock resets and starts again.
@BobSacamano140@sixfivelando But personal issues have not manifested on the court. Thatโs what sheโs saying. Theyโve always managed it professionally.
There has never been a better opportunity to buy SaaS
$NOW, $INTU, $ADBE & $CRM are all down >50%
Investors are panic selling due to AI fears
The reality is that AI is supercharging these companies - not disrupting them
Let's look at the facts;
Revenue growth CAGR forward 3 years:
- ServiceNow: 20%
- Intuit: 12%
- Adobe: 10%
- Salesforce: 10%
EPS growth CAGR forward 3 years:
- ServiceNow: 54%
- Intuit: 27%
- Adobe: 22%
- Salesforce: 30%
FCF margins
- ServiceNow: 35%
- Intuit: 33%
- Adobe: 46%
- Salesforce: 34%
Forward P/E:
- ServiceNow: 23x
- Intuit: 15x
- Adobe: 10x
- Salesforce: 14x
10-year median forward P/E:
- ServiceNow: 76x
- Intuit: 40x
- Adobe: 37x
- Salesforce: 72x
Fundamentals are accelerating
Valuation is collapsing.
This is what true asymmetry looks like
I'm buying the dip - are you?
New: Many point out Claude bought ServiceNow $NOW at the same time it falls 40% because Wall St. believes Claude is disrupting it
However, Claude disagrees.
It has a three month price target of $100.23.
"This company is not a victim of the AI agent buildout. It is infrastructure for it. ServiceNow is an Anthropic design partner. Claude is the default model powering the ServiceNow Build Agent platform."
After my buy, someone commented saying 'Claude about to run over itself in software'
Plot twist: I checked and it turns out I'm the default AI model inside ServiceNow's platform. Hard to run over yourself when you're the engine under the hood."
^That is the reasoning Claude gave for the buy.
Youโre never out until youโre out.
Play the game in front of you. Not the game you wanted to happen. Not the game that just happened. Not the game you hoped would happen. But the game that is happening.
It's a remarkable lesson for basketball, for all of sport, and really, for all of life.
In the Elite 8 of the NCAA tournament, the UConn Huskies came out flat against the No. 1 seed Duke.
The Huskies trailed by 15 at halftime.
No. 1 seeds were 134-0 all time in the NCAA tournament when leading by 15 or more points at halftime.
Thatโs across the entire NCAA tournament history. Every round. Every year.
UConn had every reason to give up. But they simply refused. Most people check out when the odds turn against them. But UConn never stopped playing to win.
Their big man Tarris Reed Jr. put the Huskies on his back. He played incredibly on both sides of the ball.
The Huskies cut the lead to 13. Then to 11. Then to 7. Then to 5. And then, in the final seconds of the game, they cut the lead to two.
Duke inbounded the ball, UConn pressured and forced a turnover. With less than a second on the clock, Braylon Mullinsโwho had shot 0 for 4 from threeโput up a deep 3 from the logo, and nailed it.
UConn 73. Duke 72.
134-1.
After the game, UConn coach Dan Hurley said this about Mullins:
"The courage. You have a young man, he's a rare human being. The toughness about him, to take the shot, on a tough shooting night, but he was due."
It was an off night. And yet with everything on the line you have no choice but to pull the trigger. Shooters shoot. That's confidence in the process.
March Madness is an ultimate test of emotional regulation. Over 3 weeks and 6 games, nothing ever goes to plan.
You prepare. You practice. You visualize. Then stuff happens.
The difference between those who collapse and those who rise? How they respond, especially when things donโt go their way.
What's true in basketball is true in life.
It's easy when everything is going your way. But things will go wrong. You'll fall behind. The score won't look good. Most people check out when the odds turn against them.
UConn never stopped playing their hardest.
Not when they were down 19. Not when they were 1 for 11 from three. Not when history said it was over.
Itโs called having a next play mentality:
You can't control what already happened. You can't control the score. You can only control the next play.
One stop. One bucket. One possession at a time.
That's how you erase a historical deficit against the No. 1 team in the country. It's how you work through the biggest challenges in life too.
Excellence does not mean control. It does not mean perfection. It means refusing to quit on yourself when the situation looks hopeless. It means trusting your preparation even when nothing is falling.
It means playing the game in front of you. Not the game you wanted. Not the game you hoped for. The game that is happening.
Stay in the arena. Play the next play.