Ionian Macro

Global Macro Trading&Tweeting OR an artsy excuse for why I got chopped on the latest headline

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@imetatronink It is real funnily enough

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@ed_fin @GlobalMacroZen That's big kavouri not little kavouri no? Given it's got cement jetty

Took me a few moments to get my bearings before I saw that awful eye of Sauron going up on the right of the photo

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@cap_zay I'll take the over on that, 15% disc rate it's 128bn today back of envelope

Let's call it 120bn and make it a deal habibi

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@tleilax___ You seen this?

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@bookdepth you a real one for that thread, you have gone up in my estimation

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@Jack_McClendon @realKunalAShah Other than east-west pipeline that hasn't been attributed to anyone clearly

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@Jack_McClendon @realKunalAShah It literally happened before the ceasefire...

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@cirnosad Ghalibaf is from the opposition party to Zarif, he runs under the same party as Jalili

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@sdav1986 12 dollars a gallon and change and we ain't seen nothing yet

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@milken_cookies Lmao got'em good so far

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@blondesnmoney Do you still believe such analysis on day 31 of the war? How are their capabilities magically going to be wiped out in 48hrs this time around?

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@MarketElf @IyerC @jeuasommenulle @GreekAnalyst Your job is to be a cheerleader for the ND government, not objective analysis, so what you think doesn't particularly matter.

I can read Greek newspapers.

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@IyerC @jeuasommenulle @MarketElf @GreekAnalyst Probs bad, they go from a decent chunk of EM index to a rounding error in developed.

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@ShitFund Who would have thought that when one's only formal higher education is poker and World of Warcraft one would struggle with critical thinking.

[Lou Pai, CEO, Enron Energy Services (parody) @EnergyPeddler]

Alright, I’m going to settle this as someone who has sold and hedged many barrels of crude oil, and been a market maker for others who have done the same.

Physical crude sales are linked to a benchmark. Could be NYMEX WTI, ICE Brent, Dated Brent, MEH, Dubai, Oman, whatever. You pay or get paid that index price, plus adders of some kind (shipping, marketing fee, quality diff, etc). But at least like 95% of what you pay/ get paid is going to be the index price.

You don’t do correlation analysis nonsense in choosing which index to hedge. You use the index to which your phys sales are tied to hedge.

So if you’re an Asia refiner, you don’t just decide to start hedging Brent even though you have a supply agreement with a seller to whom you have to pay Dubai. As John put it, you hedge the exposure you have.

Now if you want to adjust your purchase contracts to Brent, you can probably do that, but you’re going to pay out the ass for transportation, which will be included as a cost in your marketing agreement. The huge spread in Dubai/Brent was likely mostly a function of cost of transportation and that it takes time to move barrels from the North Sea to the Gulf/Asia.

Now that a few weeks have gone by, supplies from the North Sea have arrived in Asia, and low and behold, spot prices in the Gulf have come in to reflect less acute local scarcity, while Brent prices have moved up to reflect the demand supplies are getting from Asia.

It’s not some wonky derivative trading nonsense. It is purely basic physical supply and demand at work.

[Ionian Macro @IoniMac]

@yarbatman And so far they have proven they can, Iran for the moment retains escalation dominance, although it does not excercise it nearly as much as it should does not mean it does not retain it

[Ed Finley–Richardson @ed_fin]

From a shipping guy who lives in Glyfada (not a joke)