Was talking to a sellside analyst at the cybercab event.
He was all: “ Robotaxi, meh, but I really think the humanoid robot story is what’s promising here.”
And I’m: “can you even math?!?”
On a first order estimate I think Tesla will need to throw $100 to $200 billion into AI compute in order to solve humanoid robot commercialization.
And it will be great money spent!
And Robotaxi should kick off plenty of cashflow to fund it!
And it will be so tempting to institutions to just take that cashflow and pocket it.
There’s a reason ISS et al don’t want to cede additional control to @elonmusk
They’re worried he might actually spend the money to make Optimus work.
They’d be fine with an ongoing semi-inexpensive science project—a story dancing on the horizon of reality—while they can collect rent on the Robotaxi platform. Wall Street loves the version of Apple that doesn’t take big swings.
But it will take extreme grit, dedication and capital to make Optimus really work. Not for the faint of heart.
Without @elonmusk Tesla would almost inevitably become faint of heart.
There is a pretty small execution window here, and Tesla shareholders (and the world) need Elon to maximally push.
You either want sustainable abundance (and all of the fruits that ripen in that future) or you sit back, sated to sup from a dominant Robotaxi strategic platform’s teat.
I can say with some certainty that institutional shareholders would happily opt for the latter. The cashflow in hand is too big to forego, ROIC be damned.
Our future really does depend on the will of the individual holder.
If you want the future that we all deserve then you double down on Elon driving Tesla forward
https://t.co/Ix8sTrGbjc
Believe it or not, a long time ago, elevators had human operators. Someone would stand there, pull a lever, and physically guide you to your floor.
When the first button operated elevators came out, people were freaking out.
“No one’s driving it?!”, “No way am I getting in that without a human!” they thought.
But over time, the fear faded.
Now, you press a button without a second thought, trusting the system completely.
That’s exactly what will happen with Tesla Robotaxis in my honest opinion.
At first, people will hesitate, unsure about a ride with no driver. But soon, it’ll feel just as normal as calling an elevator. You’ll enter a destination on your phone, a Tesla will arrive, and then you press a button on your phone, and it’ll take you safely to your destination.
No human.
No small talk.
No steering wheel.
No pedals.
Just seamless, safe, stress-free travel.
Remember, at times, the future feels scary, until one day it becomes second nature.
Then you wonder how anyone ever lived without it and for how long people have been gambling with their lives driving a vehicle manually.
And this time Tesla Robotaxis will be no different, except with this technology, you’ll be able to get driven autonomously anywhere, not just within a building.
There are very obvious core value unlocks from being able to make a car operate itself via existing road network without human operator. The concept alone is insane. The concept of being able to do it at scale with a car that costs the same as human operated cars is beyond fucked insane.
You can distill it down to the very basic unit economics of removing human operator from automobile and work backwards to understand why no amount of noise matters/will stop it.
All Tesla needs to do is take safety operators out, show data, get reg approval, enter tsunami
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