The last of the conservative librarians. Sabra Heart and Jewish Guardian of Zion who escaped from the heart of Blue America to FL. Proud homeschooling parent.
🚨Preamble/🚨
A lot of people have asked me how I think this whole Israel-Lebanon framework agreement could play out, so I’ve put together a detailed prediction scenario plan that models all the moving pieces and creates a potential outcome stage by stage over the course of the next 5 years based on a lot of available data points, intel, and viable explicit assumptions.
You’ll find the detailed prediction thread 🧵 below 👇🏼
My prediction:
Hamas will become the new proxy arm of Turkey. What Turkey offers is more political weight, direct alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood, stronger links to Syria, they’re not Shia, and Turkey is a member of NATO which adds more weight.
Erdogan sees the opportunity while his main competitors have all been hit. This is his golden opportunity to take the throne and build the caliphate in his own image. And like all of them, Israel and Jerusalem are key.
🚨 President Trump awarded the Medal of Honor today to retired Marine Major James Capers Jr. for his extraordinary heroism in Vietnam, where, despite being severely wounded, he refused evacuation and led his team to safety under heavy fire in 1967.
VP JD Vance just brought the US to its knees with a humiliating deal weeks before our 250th birthday and he has the audacity to blame … Israel! … for the terrible situation we’re in. We're watching the Tucker Carlsonifcation of our Vice President in real time.
I've been waiting to comment or offer analysis on an MOU between the U.S. and Iran that I haven't seen, but we've heard a lot about Lebanon so let's address it.
If “Lebanon” now being included in the deal with Iran means *Iran* is forced to withdraw Iranian Hezbollah from Lebanon, from which they attack Israel and harbor terrorists, then great. But that’s not what’s being said or proposed at the moment.
The only reason Israel is responding in Lebanon is because Iranian Hezbollah keeps killing their soldiers with drones and sending bombs into northern Israel civilian communities. If Iran pulled Iranian Hezbollah out of Lebanon the fighting would stop. Further, if the UN had enforced UN Security Council Resolution 1701, held the line and kept Iranian Hezbollah north of the Litani River, Israel wouldn't be operating in southern Lebanon to push them back. If the Iranian regime hadn't colonized Lebanon with its terror proxy Hezbollah in the first place, there would be no issue at all.
A reminder: Prior to 9/11 Iranian Hezbollah was responsible for more American murders than any other terrorist organization on the planet. They currently operate in South America - our hemisphere - and partner with drug cartels. SOUTHCOM calls it "Jihad in the Jungle."
Just over the weekend in southern Lebanon, Israel took out Ali Musa Daqduq - an Iranian Hezbollah terrorist who killed U.S. troops execution style. The strike was extremely targeted, as the majority of them are. He's one of many Iranian Hezbollah terrorists. to whom the IDF has delivered justice - including Iranian Hezbollah leaders behind the Beirut bombings of the U.S. Embassy and Marine Corps barracks, killing hundreds.
Lebanon wasn't in the initial ceasefire deal - for good reason. It makes no sense that it is now, other than to give Iran what they want - which is another life line for their strongest and most organized terror proxy. This is an Iranian demand and objective. Counter to the "forever wars" narrative, this actually ensures there will be more war in the future. As the White House has repeatedly said about the goals of Epic Fury, "We’re ensuring that the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund, and direct terrorist armies outside of their borders.” Lebanon is far outside Iran's borders and Hezbollah is operating there.
As the President of Lebanon said last week about Iran and Hezbollah, "It's not your country, it's our country...they are using Lebanon as a bargaining chip in their negotiation with the United States. It's unacceptable."
As for who the U.S. is negotiating with in Iran and claims of more moderate leaders than the previous regime being at the table (which I don't believe), you can thank the Israelis for taking out the top three levels of regime leadership so we have "normal" people to negotiate with.
Let the Israelis do what they need to do. Iran is still and always has been the hinderance to peace. That hasn't changed and giving Iranian Hezbollah immunity in Lebanon is appeasement that will prolong the conflict.
The key thing to remember about JD Vance is that he doesn’t have any core beliefs beyond striving for power/place. He’s a classic chameleon kid, saying whatever he needs to fit in. It’s why he was able to shift so seamlessly from “Trump is America’s Hitler” to being his VP.
Statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the press conference last night:
"Dear citizens of Israel,
For decades, I have been fighting against Iran’s efforts to arm itself with nuclear weapons. I can define it as my life’s mission. I have met this challenge to this day, and I will continue to meet it in the future. With an agreement, without an agreement – Iran will not have nuclear weapons. Not today, and not tomorrow. As long as I am Prime Minister of Israel – this will not happen.
I hear people asking: What have we achieved? And my response to them is: "What have we achieved"?! We have fended off an immediate threat of annihilation. Together with our American friends, we launched the largest offensive air operation in Israel’s history. We neutralized nuclear scientists, decapitated the leaders of the terror regime, pulverized nuclear facilities, destroyed missiles and the vast majority of the factories that produce them, struck countless military industries and infrastructures, destroyed their navy, their air force, neutralized Basij commanders who massacred the Iranian people, and caused enormous damage. We estimate it in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and some even estimate it to be closer to a trillion dollars – enormous damage to the economy of Iran that took them decades to build.
But here is the most important thing: we saved the State of Israel from the threat of nuclear annihilation. Because, it is crucial to understand, Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon just before Operation Rising Lion; it was racing toward a nuclear weapon and racing to bury its missile and nuclear industry deep underground.
If we had not acted at the time we did, and with the overwhelming force with which we did – both in Operation Rising Lion and later in Operation Roaring Lion, in historic cooperation with President Trump and the American military – if we had not acted in this way, Iran would already have atomic bombs. And what does that mean? It means that millions of Israeli citizens, you who are listening to me now, you would all have been in terrible danger of mass death. All of us would have been in that danger. And this danger, of the elimination of Israel’s population, we have fended off for years to come. That is what we have achieved – we saved the State of Israel from annihilation.
But I tell you, citizens of Israel, the struggle is not over and done. We will need to maintain our vigilance, remain strong and determined to defend ourselves as required. This is true not only vis-à-vis Iran. This is also true vis-à-vis Iran’s terror proxies, which we have hit in an unprecedented manner. We did it in Gaza, we did it in Lebanon, in Syria, in Yemen, we did it in the refugee camps in Judea and Samaria – we did it everywhere.
We eliminated Deif, Haniyeh, and Sinwar, along with many of Hamas's leaders. Actually, almost everyone who was there during the horrific massacre; I think there is one more left, he too will be eliminated. We destroyed thousands of terrorists and countless terror infrastructures. We returned all our hostages from Gaza, down to the very last one. No one believed we would do that. I did.
I was told: Prime Minister, we must give up, don't enter Rafah, end the war – we will bring the hostages and we will frame our exit from Gaza as a victory. I did not accept this nonsense. We entered Rafah, we entered Gaza City, contrary to the opinions of many – and we returned all the hostages, to the last one. And not only that, we exploded the pagers, we eliminated the arch-enemy Nasrallah, we prevented the invasion of the Radwan Force into the Galilee, we destroyed the vast majority of the 150,000 rockets and missiles that Nasrallah built in order to devastate the cities of Israel.
You remember what we were told: If we go to battle with Hezbollah, we will have tens of thousands of casualties, the towers will come down in Tel Aviv, in Haifa, in Jerusalem, in Be'er- Sheva; Israeli cities will be reduced to ruins. You remember that. I did not accept that, we fought them, and we fought them hard; we also captured their key positions like the Beaufort, which Hezbollah had used for years to threaten the northern communities, and in fact the entire country.
Simultaneously, we did another thing: we established deep security zones around the State of Israel. We did it in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria – where, by the way, we destroyed all the weaponry of the Assad army, which was a central link in the Axis of Evil. And I wish to clarify: we will remain in the security zones for as long as it is required to defend our country. Because after October 7th, I established a simple principle: Israel will not allow terror organizations to encamp on our borders; to tunnel into our territory; to prepare for a massacre close to our citizens. Today, the heroic IDF fighters stand as barrier between the terrorists and our citizens.
What we did, in fact, was change our entire security doctrine; change ourselves as well. We broke the barrier of fear. We take initiative, we attack, we surprise, and we strike at those who threaten our lives.
Israel is stronger than ever, and Iran’s Axis of Evil is weaker than ever. If someone had told you at the beginning of the war that we would achieve everything I have detailed, and I haven't detailed everything – you would have said they were hallucinating. Just talk, just promises – no, we did all that. And today, after we have achieved all this, there are those who want to minimize it, to dismiss our tremendous achievements. And I tell you: we are going to achieve many more great things.
We will continue to neutralize threats in the region, we will build new alliances with countries in the region and beyond. We will ensure our own domestic armament independence, this is another principle I established, and I am investing 350 billion NIS in that, as a supplement to the defense budget. We will develop technologies that break the boundaries of imagination, and we will turn Israel into an even stronger power. Because our strength is the key to our future, it is the key to our security, it is the key to our economy, it is the key to our alliances. Because alliances are made with the strong, and Israel today is a very strong country. It is strong thanks to you, citizens of Israel.
I wish to thank you, citizens of Israel, for your steadfastness, for the support you give to the government and for the support you give me as the Prime Minister. And above all, I wish to thank our heroic fighters, men and women in active duty and in the reserves, at sea, on land, and in the air, in the IDF and in all the security branches. There is no one like you, heroes of Israel. Together we will continue to stand, and together we will continue to win.
"Fear not, O Jacob My servant, and be not dismayed, O Israel!"
Together, with God's help, we will ensure the eternity of Israel."
In 23 years of working on Iran, I’ve never been more confident that we will see the end of the Islamic Republic.
Ignore the spin. Drown out the noise.
Make maximum support for the Iranian people a central pillar of America’s Iran policy.
Wow. The messaging we saw after October 7th was a well-planned anti-Israel propaganda campaign. We knew this, but more and more we see how everything was in position ready to launch on that day.
Morocco was once home to the largest Jewish community in the Arab world.
From thriving mellahs and rich traditions to secret escape routes and Mossad rescue missions, the story of Moroccan Jews is one of resilience, identity, and exile.
🗣️ Why did nearly 250,000 Jews leave a country many once called home? And how did Morocco’s Jews help shape modern Israel while preserving a culture that still lives on today?
Credit: @unpackedmedia
🤍💙 The Real Reason Morocco’s Jews Left 💙🤍 https://t.co/u4628XLIZu via @YouTube
An amazing interview with Victoria Coates. Clear and concise to debunk the lie that the JCPOA was working. It was not. The 2018 raid in Tehran (see my podcast with former Mossad Chief) literally showed the world Iran's nuclear weapons plans and program.