John Hamilton

Managing director of African Energy

[Jalel Harchaoui جلال حرشاوي @JMJalel_H]

“The spy chief, David Barnea, told White House envoy Steve Witkoff that Israel has been speaking in particular with Ethiopia, Indonesia and #Libya.”

This proves that NBC’s May 16 article (“Trump administration working on plan to move 1 million Palestinians to Libya”) was never fake news, but always true.

[Mohammed Elgrj @moelgrj]

🔴 Over $294 Million Lost: Libya’s Oil Sector Engulfed in Corruption – Attorney General (Jan–Jun 2025)

According to Libya’s Attorney General, the oil sector has seen over $294 million in confirmed financial violations during the first half of 2025, across 7 major corruption cases:

— 🟥 Waha Oil Company awarded a supply contract worth LYD 769.9M ($154M) to “Amwaj Al-Sidra” in violation of procurement law.
— 🟥 An additional $140M USD was illegally disbursed via Letters of Credit without legal clearance.
— 🟨 Defective drilling tools delivered in March — procurement collusion suspected.
— 🟨 Fake accommodation invoices for field workers cost an estimated LYD 5M ($1M).
— 🟨 A security contract worth LYD 8.2M (~$1.64M) revealed inflated pricing by over 70%.
— 🟨 A pipeline oil spill at Al-Bahi field in June caused environmental damage; negligence under review.
— 🟨 Theft of oil transport pipelines reported near Zueitina, with contractor involvement.

🧾 Total financial damage:
→ LYD 783.1M ≈ $156.62M
→ + $140M USD
→ = Over $296.6 million USD

🛑 As of June 2025, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) has issued no public response or contract suspensions.

#Libya #OilCorruption #WahaOil #NOC #AttorneyGeneral #Libya2025 #PublicFunds #Accountability

[African Energy @AfricanEnergy]

The Baynes #hydroelectric #power plant is advancing after years of planning but much work remains to be done. It is seen as a key project for #Angola, #Namibia and the Southern African Power Pool (Sapp) grid
https://t.co/8hynkAdHRF
#Africa #renewableenergy #powertransmission

[John Hamilton @JHamiltonCbI]

@KrisSpencerWord Hi Kris, happy to be in touch again

[African Energy @AfricanEnergy]

Zambia's regulator has approved construction of the 190km, 330kV Kalumbila-Kolwezi Interconnection Project linking #Zambia and #DRC. It is part of a wave of #powertransmission projects linking the countries, amid surging demand from #Copperbelt #miners.

https://t.co/tJWpM7FypG

[Bloomberg @business]

Libya has piled up about $1 billion of arrears to its fuel suppliers after the country ended a controversial oil barter program about three months ago https://t.co/IYg4uw8N8O

[Gulf States Newsletter (GSN) @GulfStatesNews]

Free to Read: A free trade agreement (FTA) between #Iran and the five-member Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) came into effect on 15 May, pointing to the potential for #Tehran to improve its economic prospects by looking north and east. https://t.co/IdQhhiP46i

[African Energy @AfricanEnergy]

The World Bank Group has pledged a substantial grant towards #Malawi's Mpatamanga #hydroelectric power plant.

The plant will increase nominal #installedcapacity by about two-thirds and will be the country’s largest-ever foreign direct #investment
https://t.co/qlvjMmKIW1
#Africa

[Sada Economic Newspaper @sada_newspaper]

Africa Confidential Reveals Ordeal of #LARMO Chief Al-Mensli Amid Pressure to Surrender Documents on #Frozen_Libyan_Funds

Read more: https://t.co/mLzis6mTxc
#libya #sada

[Jalel Harchaoui جلال حرشاوي @JMJalel_H]

There’s plenty of online chatter suggesting that Brigade 444 has become much weaker and more fragmented since its disastrous clash with former parent group, Radaa, on Tuesday night.

Many of those comments are on point, though many others are exaggerated.

But in all cases, if the Haftar family sends its armed units into the heart of Tripoli (a distinct possibility), the sheer presence of the LNA or LNA-backed elements in the Libyan capital will suffice to re-galvanize pro-GNU formations like the 444.

The situation as a whole is volatile and non-monotonous. Although Dabaiba’s camp is on its heels, it could still bounce back.

… Or—of course—it could unravel real quick, too.

What is unfolding in Tripoli is a nationwide crisis, not a provincial crisis.

[شبكة الرائد الإعلامية @arraedlgplus]

“نوڤا”: اجتماعات طارئة لـ #الدبيبة وسط احتمال انسحابه من المشهد السياسي.. 👇
https://t.co/svaQZrinGX

[John Hamilton @JHamiltonCbI]

@LibyaAlAhrarAR Large anti- Dabaiba demo in Martyrs Square but I suppose the impetus and decision about what follows must come from elsewhere. But from where?

[John Hamilton @JHamiltonCbI]

@abaadnews_ly More and more groups are declaring against Dabaiba saying he is personally responsible for the chaos unleashed in Tripoli.

[أبعاد @abaadnews_ly]

#عاجل| عضو مجلس حكماء وأعيان طرابلس عدنان القروي لـ أبعاد: رئيس الحكومة في طرابلس عبدالحميد الدبيبة يتحمل تبعيات ماحدث في طرابلس خلال الساعات الماضية عبر قراراته العبثية التي أعلنها يوم أمس

القروي لـ أبعاد: حكومة الدبيبة لا تملك التحكم في المشهد الأمني وبتصرفاته غير المدروسة أدخل المدينة في حالة فوضى

القروي لـ أبعاد: من يملك الحل الٱن هو عبدالحميد الدبيبة عبر سحب القوات الموالية له وإنهاء حالة الحرب الحالية

القروي لـ أبعاد: عبدالحميد الدبيبة هو من أعلن الحرب فالعمليات العسكرية تنطلق بأوامره شخصيا وهو يرفض التواصل مع عديد الأطراف حاليا

#أبعاد #ليبيا

[John Hamilton @JHamiltonCbI]

This is a tragedy on a tragedy - the Godfather in ghastly reality. Dabaiba invited Kikli - a rival capo - to a meeting. And had him whacked. Now he can’t control the violence as the other families react. Libyans have already suffered terrible mafia rule and will now suffer more.

[Jalel Harchaoui جلال حرشاوي @JMJalel_H]

𝑻𝒓𝒊𝒑𝒐𝒍𝒊 𝑺𝒍𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒔 𝑩𝒂𝒄𝒌 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒐 𝑪𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒍 𝑾𝒂𝒓

One cannot overstate the difference between the situation in Tripoli as of Monday evening and as of Tuesday evening.

On Monday, Prime Minister Dabaiba and his allies looked like geniuses. They had just executed challenger Abdelghani al-Kikli, and, although there were clashes, the violence fell short of all-out war. Their operation, precise and compelling, was sellable as a harsh but useful step vis-à-vis many foreign states and the Libyan populace. Had Dabaiba’s side stopped there, calm might have followed in a sustainable fashion.

By Tuesday evening, however, the same Dabaiba coalition had launched a direct attack against Radaa’s interests—despite the fact that Radaa was better organized and more popular in the large suburb of Suq al-Jumaa. The assault did not achieve the swift victory Dabaiba needed. In response, hundreds of military vehicles from Zawiyah have mobilized to back Radaa, as have forces under General Usama al-Juwaili from Zintan. More Misrata brigades may continue to join on Dabaiba’s side. In all cases, more factions are seeking to insinuate themselves into downtown Tripoli itself. This situation is thus more dangerous than those in 2011, 2014, or 2019.

In 2014, fighting was confined mainly to southern Tripoli near the International Airport. In 2011, Qadhafi fled early; he did not wage war in the city center. In 2019, Haftar’s armed coalition never penetrated downtown Tripoli. Today, however, many civilians are rightfully outraged as central Tripoli comes under direct threat.

Haftar’s coalition will inevitably try and get near Tripoli and support its existing partners, such as Juwaili of Zintan and the Buzeriba family in Zawiyah—ties that will now be activated logistically and financially.

Dabaiba’s move against Radaa, and his failure to secure a quick victory, may well prove a #fatal mistake. Perhaps he can still prevail, but doing so now would almost certainly require a protracted war among multiple factions converging on the capital. Also possible is the prospect of Dabaiba losing everything.

In any event, the old arrangement—where militias that distrusted each other maintained an uneasy cohabitation—is likely over. The events of the past two days, especially Tuesday’s nonconclusive offensive against Radaa, have shattered that longstanding modus vivendi. It does not mean Dabaiba’s camp has already lost, but the only chance to avoid a drawn-out conflict was a quick victory last night. With that window gone, all signs point to a more prolonged, destructive, and existential battle with a nationwide dimension.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the attitude of some key foreign states like Turkey were to change somewhat.

[Gulf States Newsletter (GSN) @GulfStatesNews]

In the lead-up to a visit to the #Gulf by US President Donald Trump, the region’s governments and many state-linked businesses have been announcing deals involving real estate and cryptocurrencies which could lead to large pay-days for the #Trump family. https://t.co/FJrWeA2eDL

[John Hamilton @JHamiltonCbI]

@JMJalel_H @fishman_b at the @WashInstitute says Libya a kleptocracy, Haftar unsplittable from Putin, and a Trump ‘sanctions grenade’ needed. How does all this fit with @MiddleEastEye news on US and Libya plan to ‘share’ frozen’ funds? https://t.co/jFOyf678ev

[Washington Institute @WashInstitute]

New from @fishman_b in Al Majalla: "Put simply, there is an urgency to addressing Libya’s chaos and dysfunction." https://t.co/IKakzLKNOC

[Jalel Harchaoui جلال حرشاوي @JMJalel_H]

Field Marshal Haftar has met with President Putin for the second time in as many days, underscoring Libya’s importance to the Kremlin. The lavish honors bestowed on Haftar suggest Russia anticipates no pushback from the Trump administration. Moscow no longer feels the need to hide or deny its support for the Haftar family.

[John Hamilton @JHamiltonCbI]

@Africa_Conf A huge amount more investigation is needed on this and other Libyan asset recovery schemes, and on corruption in Libya. With the deals being negotiated with Washington to unfreeze other Libyan assets - and the proposal to deport migrants there - it's hard to know where to start.