March 2020: I call supply side inflation.
June 2022: I identify how supply side inflation creates "greedflation" through the bargaining power of remaining supply.
March 2023: I call that the bank rescue mechanism won't be inflationary.
And this is just my hobby ;)
There's a threshold of model intelligence below which the compression is a liability and above which it flips to an asset. Or, how ruby went a bad LLM language to choose as late as Opus 4, to a great one, with Opus 4.5.
There were 3 of us on the call when I bore witness to @AlexanderTw33ts using his own agent orchestrator Insomnia, conceive, telegram a single instruction, and deployed https://t.co/KSqFy9sMHZ in the span of like 3 minutes.
@GEICO My zip code spans three cities and you won't let me change my billing address city because of my zip code. Fix your forms. You want my money or not?
@StephanieKelton UC Berkeley was so close that I just had to hear explained the sectoral balances for all of your work to slot right in. There was no deep theoretic economic contradiction. And it was still completely game changing.
It does seem that prices have risen particularly on low effort goods. Like fast food. Costco is still cheap, but you have to stop and plan it.
No wonder there's a psycho-stimulants shortage.
Something happened to people's mental stamina in the economy as a whole.
I never understood why eating out for breakfast is so expensive even compared to other restaurants, when the food is so cheap and easy to make.
But I do notice incredibly high prices on anything that lets you rest your pre-frontal cortex. There's a there there, we'll find it.
"2. Logical consistency: The endogenous money view that banks create money [...] may be more logically coherent and consistent with the actual practices of modern banking. As rational models, we may gravitate towards the more logically sound explanation." ย
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I test each new upgrade to large language models by asking what happens to the money supply when a bank issues a loan. They're all heterodox, and the new Claude said this when I asked why it contradicts mainstream loanable funds:
The idea that "mature economies grow more slowly" because they are on the frontier of tech and skills, contradicts economic logic as well as history. 40 years of bad political economic governance gave economists the motivation to back-fit nonsense. Growth "naturally" accelerates.
Accounting wise, all savings have to be another entity's debt, an entity's disemployment, or the ever elusive, all-photos-are-blurry Big Foot style spontaneous increase in the velocity of money.
@avianca I pay extra to be able to change my flight ("Fare L"). Avianca cancels the flight and me on a new flight. The website says I can't change my flight(!) says I have to call. Oh no... Call center hangs up on me while I am still menu diving...