Money does grow on Cs | The Flow Show, BofA
_/ Semis Semis look ‘bubbly’ & ‘overbought’, reaching levels not seen since June 2000.
_/ $SOX is up 48% YTD (35% just in the past month), crossing the 10,000 mark on Thursday.
👇 Semiconductors most overbought vs. 200dma since Jun'00
In 2007, I was sitting on a large amount of undrawn commitments to invest in bombed out MBS securities.
Didn’t invest at all until 2008, didn’t get fully invested until March 2009.
It’s 2007 for Private Credit.
Come home to DoubleLine.
Nobody is talking about the 12 month rate of change on oil right now. They should be.
WTI crude's ROC(12) just spiked to over 91%. Let me show you what happened every other time it did this.
- 1987 Crash.
- 1990 Crash.
- Dot Com Bust.
- 2008 Financial Crisis.
- 2022 Bear Market.
Every single spike of this magnitude on the 12 month rate of change has led to something breaking. Every. Single. Time.
Do you really think this time we just walk away unscathed?
This is your warning shot.
As the early 1970s was plagued by war (Vietnam), stubborn inflation eroding bonds, and an oil crisis..
TODAY those similarities are uncannily similar.
We have the Iran war that's causing an oil crisis with no end in sight for now. That's spiked oil up significantly (recent moves have seen WTI surge over 70% and it looks set to head higher.
We have inflation issues, growth issues, and a stock market that has mirrored the trend a measured move ...just as was seen in the 70s.
If we wrap it all up in absolute terms, today's crisis is much worse due to valuations (which weren't an issue back in the 70s) and unprecedented debt that's expanding exponentially to dire levels.
To conclude...This setup screams caution.
The parallels to the 1970s stagflation era are too close for comfort, but amplified by sky-high valuations and a mountain of debt that leaves far less room for error.
Rising yields (like the concerning moves we've seen in the Euro 10yr bond AND across the globe ), spiking energy costs, and narrative-driven volatility can maul equities fast especially if the war escalates or oil supply disruptions drag on.
Yours truly,
The Great Martis.✨
For one's private perusal ..enjoy.