James Gray

Commodities ⚡️🛢️🚢📱
Personal account and all my views 🏌️‍♂️

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@ekwufinance Source for ~280 mbbls?
* PAJ ~ 60mbbls
* LSEG (from PAJ) ~ 54.9mbbls
* Platts ~ 60mbbls

https://t.co/TjkRKBILMT

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@FirstSquawk lol

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@AdiSurreyEnergy + in 2026 the UK is down x2 refineries since this ‘23 data

-Prax Lindsey = ~100kbd closed Q2’25
-Grangemouth = ~140kbd closed Q1’25

@ Jet yield ~ 15%
= - 36kbd
= 137kt/m
= 1.65million tons annually lost
= just shy of irelands ‘23 imports

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@JuliOnTwtr seems corrective on crude from last week vastly unexpected build

disti certainly drawing hard

[Julianne Geiger @JuliOnTwtr]

API Inventory Moves 04/14

Crude +6.10 million (exp. -1.3 million)
Gasoline +626,000
Distillates -3.4 million
Cushing -1.7 million

SPR actual -4.1 million

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@pelositracker Price discovery?
No, I know where the knife lands.
Genius $PYPL

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@staunovo PADD III Distillate stocks drawing down from highs @ 39.4m bbls
while Sing Middle Dist @ 6.89m bbls = lowest lvls since '22
('22 red line bottom right, from Enterprise data)

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@CRUDEOIL231 What’s source for the ref outages ?

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@johnarnold Implications & precedents China consider for Taiwan imposition
-sanctions temp & trade routes can adjust
CCP integrity/defence/chips > sanctions
-sovereignty conditional & Taiwan becomes ‘internal matter’ = geopolitical confrontation avoidance
Timelines reduced + diplomacy min’d

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@TheJessePeralta $CVX repriced aggressively
-volume 34.8M < Jul18'[email protected] (Hess deal closed)
-had flutter when below 160 and excited before close
#Brent firmer as geopolitical risk premia brings back to pre xmas lvls=called front wrong
-bull steepener '26-27 with LCOM6-Z7 +~70c DoD

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@TheJessePeralta Agree seeing wedge & price action has reacted to headline in past; are you positioned for?
-$CVX likely see bump as everyone piles in + short interest massively reduced since Oct25
-#Brent/#WTI should take hit as more oil on market (although dont believe be for some time either)

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@Trader_Saan Agree on $PYPL
-Consolidation ~60 for awhile
-Downside @ 55.88 & 50.25
-Looking for price action before buy much more
-Utah bank application should be good
-PE discounted to peers @ 12.2 vs $V (34), $MA (36.4), $XYZ (32.2)
PS: Short interest high @ 43.2m
https://t.co/kPXzmP5XM3

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@Jake__Wujastyk $PYPL not set yet as:
-Watching for support to hold above lvls pre-earning lows of Nov’23 + Jul’24
-Concern is earnings season amplify market churn
-Events highlighted + volume spikes

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@graddhybpc Great call!
Nice move higher+can see from $Silver H26 volume = bandwagon trade
-MACD upper limit = expect pullback
-RSI overbot since end Nov
-Momentum generally high as evident on everyones feed
=clear breakout but could see retest soon before I add more
https://t.co/skH420j19L

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@graddhybpc Watching momentum here does seem to be fading away Will wait for pull back & hopefully get $Silver breakaway every TA on here is now calling for

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@EpicCharting $SPOT short rn appears overextended
-Ascending wedge breakdown mid-Oct
-Death Cross 2Dec25 as all seen
-MACD shows stabilization possible
-RSI deeply oversold; @ lvls post earnings Q122 -> shaky Q222 outlook (-8mRu MAUs+FX Opex concerns)
-Agree downside to Jan/Apr lows; entry tbd

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@BlacklionCTA CME server meltdown to EIA Polar Vortex deep freeze,
the irony

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@FluxEnergyNews Catalyst yday for $Bitcoin action can be attributed to ‘Vanguard effect’ as per:

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

The "Vanguard" effect! 🤣

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@jackprandelli @joshyoung Technically yes;
typs Venz heavy,sour good for Mid Dist cuts in a USGC Nelson 10+ ref so could sub for Maya/CBs

-Good upgrading cap. to get bottoms (cokers,DHDT,FCC,HC)
-Decent margin as usually -ve vs TI/Br

-Operational unreliable
-Payment messy; US company need swap of sorts

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@staunovo Worth noting Diesel tax change around Apr25 to bring in line with gas
which is driver but not factor,

new registration show Gasoline leading substantially (Agencia Tributaria):

2024
Gas 590k units (70% new registrations)
Diesel 175k (21%)

2025
Gas 710k (70%)
Diesel 168k (21%)

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@staunovo Agree, Spanish demand robust YTD'25 as per CORES data:

YTD consumption vs Jan-Oct'24

Gasoline @ 5.89KT // 163k bpd = +7.8% YoY

Diesel @ 18.46KT // 458k bpd = +1.2% YoY

https://t.co/pZaUuxzlOJ

[CORES @i_cores]

Consumption of #road #fuels in Spain rose by 6.0% in October compared to the same month last year, according to our preliminary information just released. More information (🇪🇸): https://t.co/yzmgSFbEGf

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@graddhybpc Watching momentum here does seem to be fading away Will wait for pull back & hopefully get $Silver breakaway every TA on here is now calling for

[James Gray @J_Gray101]

@staunovo Only for Methanol handling at Mongstad port
=likely products berths on east side shut
-crude loading continue from NW berths;
2 vsls in last 24hours+1@berth (LSEG WS)
-Equinor finished partial turnaround Nov 10 so fact this was initially announced the week after could be linked..