NBA Finals Game 4 Parlay 3.74x๐ฅ
๐Spurs @ Knicksโฆ
๐Julian Champagnie Over 9.5 Points
๐Karl-Anthony Towns Over 0.5 Steals
๐Victor Wembanyama Over 1.5 3-Pointers
๐Data Down Below๐๐ป
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#PorVida
Collab w/ @QuicksProps ๐ค
โข Backing Castle here in the biggest game of the playoffs so far
โข Castle gets a great matchup versus the Knicks in Game 4. Heโs cleared this line in 2/3 games so far this series and it hasnโt been by mistake. Averaging 17.4 points this series and 5.6 rebounds per game set up perfectly for this line
โข This matchup fits perfectly to his scoring profile. The Knicks rank 14th in points allowed to spot up, where Castle scores 22% of his points. They also rank 21st in points allowed to the P&R ball handler, where Castle scores 16.6 % of his points
โข Castle has been averaging heavy minutes this series and there is no reason to think itโs going to change. Castle is over this line in 74% of games this season when he plays 30+ minutes and we should expect the same tonight
โข A lot of minutes for Castle allows him to capitalize on his 10 rebound chances per game heโs seen in this series. Heโs over this line in 5 of his last 5 games on the road and gets another big opportunity facing a potential 3-1 deficit
Lean OVER.๐
๐ NBA Finals Best Bets 6/10
Mikal Bridges Over 5.5 Reb+Ast
Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 Rebounds
Julian Champagnie Over 9.5 Points
Stephon Castle Under 11.5 Reb+Ast
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NBA Best Over Play โข๏ธ
Stephon Castle O 20.5 Pts + Rebs๐
(-130) #PorVidaย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย ย
40 โค๏ธโ๐ฅ for the Play of the Day
In Game 3, Castle was a massive bright spot for San Antonio despite the tough environment to help them get the win.
He relentlessly attacked down hill and knocked down a couple of key 3s to get to 23 points.
In the playoffs, heโs been over this line in his last 5/6 games averaging 24 PR and over this line in 2/3 games vs the Knicks.
In a recent interview with Malika Andrews, he says โI expect to win the next 3โ. He also notes that their confidence didn't actually come from winning Game 3; they've had it since the end of Game 2.
The team genuinely feels like they let the first two games slip away, meaning they view themselves as the better team when focused, so expect Castle to come out with a bunch of energy just like Wembanyama did.
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Stephon Castle O 6.5 ast (+115 @ BOV)
collab w/ @a1fantasy23
After a rough game 2, Castle was much better at playing under control and making the right reads in game 3. With the Knicks tagging Wemby when he is used as a roller this opens up passes to the corner by ballhandlers like Castle.
This led to Castle making 70 passes including 14 potentials, 9 of those potentials coming in the 2nd half when the Spurs made their comeback. Over in 13/16 games this season with 60-70 passes.
Mike Brown was quoted saying "We allowed them to live in our paint. Castle got to the paint at will, almost every pick and roll he played." Expecting the Knicks to make more of an effort to cut him off at the rim here which should lead to even more kick out assists.
NBA Late Night Play๐
Stephon Castle Over 21.5 Pts+Rebs
55% Hit Rate This Season๐ฏ
50โค๏ธ For My NBA Play Of The Day
Castle has emerged as one of the best two way guards in the league and has been outstanding away from home this season. Heโs cleared this line in 49 of 89 games this season and has been especially effective on the road, going over this number in 6 straight away games.
On The Season Castle Is Averaging.
-17.12 Points Per Game
-12.3 FG Attempts Per Game
-5.8 FG Made Per Game
-34% 3-PT Made
-5.28 Rebounds Per Game
-30.8 Minutes Per Game
Castle and the San Antonio Spurs head to New York tonight to face the Knicks. The Knicks are allowing the 16th most points and 18th most rebounds per game to opposing guards this season.
Last 5 Guards Vs The Knicks.
-De'Aaron Fox 23 Pts+Rebs
-Dylan Harper 24 Pts+Rebs
-Donovan Mitchell 35 Pts+Rebs
-Donovan Mitchell 24 Pts+Rebs
-Donovan Mitchell 30 Pts+Rebs
Castle has faced New York twice already this series, posting 25 and 18 Pts+Rebs across both matchups. The 25-piece in Game 1 showed exactly what he's capable of against this defense and game 2 he missed a solid 6ish minutes due to foul trouble.
On the road this season Castle has hit this line in all 6 games at a 100% clip while averaging 28.83 Pts+Rebs per game. He's logging 37.1 minutes per game on the road on 15 FG attempts shooting 53% from the field.
Over his last 5 games Castle has hit this line in 4 of 5 while averaging 23.2 Pts+Rebs per game. He's logging 32.6 minutes per game over that stretch on 13.2 FG attempts shooting 47% from the field, posting 29, 22, 22, 25, and 18 across those matchups.
Castle has been one of San Antonioโs most reliable weapons all season and has been virtually unstoppable on the road. His combination of scoring aggression, rebounding ability, and consistent minutes has made him a dependable contributor night after night, especially away from home. With his road form continuing to impress and his role firmly established in the Spursโ offense, heโs well positioned to deliver again tonight. Setting him up to log at least 22 points and rebounds tonight.
BACK OG IN GAME 3 โผ๏ธ
๐ PK Dish #2 (6/8)
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LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
โข Anunoby has cleared this line in 11 of 14 playoff games while averaging 19.3 PPG. Heโs already shown he can get to this number in this matchup, putting up 17 points in both Game 1 and Game 2 against the Spurs.
โข During this playoff run, OG has been highly efficient, shooting 48.4% from the field and 48.3% from three. The scoring form has been there, and his role has stayed consistent.
โข We like this spot for OG because San Antonio is going to be keyed in on slowing down Brunson again as they try to steal one in MSG. That should open up plenty of clean looks for Anunoby, whether itโs catch-and-shoot opportunities, straight-line drives, or attacking off the dribble when the defense rotates.
โข What we like most is that OG doesnโt have to rely only on half-court scoring to get there. With the way he defends, he can create extra offense through steals, blocks, runouts, and transition chances. Those easy buckets matter when we only need 15.
โข With his playoff form, consistent role, and the Spursโ defensive attention likely leaning toward Brunson, we like OG to stay aggressive and clear this number again.
Best Odds: -125 FanDuel
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๐ NBA Finals Best Bets 6/3
Mikal Bridges Over 20.5 PRA
Karl Anthony Towns Under 34.5 PRA
Devin Vassell Over 6.5 Reb+Ast
De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists
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๐ PK Dish #1 (6/3)
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LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
โข Bridges has been extremely consistent this postseason, clearing this line in 9 of his last 10 playoff games while averaging 24.1 PRA. Heโs locked into a dependable role for New York, averaging 14.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.5 assists while continuing to play heavy minutes.
โข The minutes are a big part of the play here. Bridges is one of those guys Mike Brown can trust on both ends, and in a Finals setting, we should expect him to push into that 35+ minute range again. That type of floor time gives him multiple paths to get there through scoring, boards, and secondary playmaking.
โข He has also been excellent in this matchup historically. Bridges has cleared this line in 7 straight head-to-head meetings against San Antonio, averaging 28.0 PRA over that stretch. In three meetings this season, he finished with 21, 21, and 32 PRA, including a 32 PRA game in just 33 minutes.
โข The matchup fits his scoring profile too. San Antonioโs defense is built around Wembanyama protecting the paint, which naturally pushes opponents into more mid-range looks and pull-up jumpers. The Spurs are giving up the second-highest volume of mid-range shots this postseason, and that plays right into Bridgesโ hands with how comfortable he is from the wings, elbows, and top of the key.
โข The Spurs are also going to be keyed in on slowing down Brunson, which should leave Bridges with plenty of catch-and-shoot looks, mid-range chances, and secondary creation opportunities. Heโs been playing with more confidence lately too, shooting 58.6% from the field and giving New York exactly what they need next to Brunson.
โข With the Knicks coming in fresh off over a week of rest, the legs should be there early. Bridges has the minutes, matchup history, current form, and scoring profile to clear this number again.
Playable at 21.5 as well!
Best Odds: -140 ProphetX
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NBA Finals June 3rd:
Julian Champagnie Over 9.5 Points
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 11.5 Rebounds
Keldon Johnson Over 0.5 Threes Made
Josh Hart Over 4.5 Assists
Stephon Castle Under 1.5 Threes Made
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June 3rd NBA Player Props๐ฅ
Stephon Castle Over 6.5 Assists
Jalen Brunson Over 24.5 Points
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds
Karl Anthony-Towns Over 3.5 Assists
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ALL RISE FOR CAMERON
6/2 MLB #2:
Noah Cameron OVER 15.5 Outs
#FountainsUp vs #ATOBTTR
LIKE IF TAILING! โค๏ธ
โข Cameron gets a decent matchup here against the Reds but that shouldn't change anything as he has gone over this line in 6/L10 games this season averaging 15.8 outs but stay with me, this is a very similar Reds team to the one he faced before and he went 19 outs against them.
โข Despite posting a 4.89 ERA on the season, Cameron is in a matchup where the Reds have very high K potential when going against lefties as 6/9 batters post a 20%+ K% when going against lefties this season.
โข Now when going against teams who rank bottom 5 in K%, he has cleared this line in 4/4 games averaging 17.3 outs/game but I am also seeing that we may get an extended leash in this one as the Royals bullpen is taxed for the most minus 1-2 pitchers so if Cameron goes into the 6th inning, they preserve bullpen for the next game of the series.
Best Odds: -115 MGM
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MLB DISH OF THE DAY ๐งโ๐ณ
โพ๏ธ PK Dish #1 (6/2)
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LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
โข Nice spot to fade Flaherty here, who is over this line in 6 of 7 starts and 4 of 5 road starts.
โข He gets another road game against a very good Rays offense. Tampa Bay currently owns the 2nd highest batting average in baseball.
โข Flaherty has struggled this season. He ranks in the 29th percentile in xERA and 48th percentile in xBA while also giving up a ton of hard contact, ranking in just the 8th percentile in Hard-Hit%.
โข The Rays are a swing-happy lineup, and that is reflected by them ranking bottom 10 in P/PA this season. That means more quick ABs, more balls in play, and more chances for hits. The top of the Rays lineup can do damage too, with their top 4 bats all holding a .275+ average vs RHP this season.
โข Tampa Bay has been doing damage against RHP lately as well:
Madden - 3 HA
Kochanowicz - 5 HA
Urena - 5 HA
Gibson - 6 HA
Baz - 7 HA / 2 HA
Bradish - 5 HA / 4 HA
Perez - 5 HA
Alcantara - 7 HA
Junk - 10 HA
Gausman - 10 HA / 6 HA
Taillon - 7 HA
โข The spots where Tampa Bay hasnโt cleared this line have mostly come against elite RHP:
Cole - 2 HA
Cease - 3 HA
Skenes - 3 HA
โข Flaherty is far from elite this season, and the Rays should have a good chance to continue their success here. Walks are a slight concern with Flaherty, but he has been better at limiting them lately.
โข Flaherty has a 15.5 outs line, so we are basically asking for 1 hit per inning here. That feels very doable for a Rays offense that has been consistent all season.
Best Odds: -138 Novig / -135 Bet365
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