0.3% a day. 9% a month. one leaked repo, 50 forks overnight. here is the stack
quant funds pay junior hft devs $150k base before bonus. citadel securities clears $7B a year on market making alone. the entire edge is microstructure code that maybe a few thousand people on earth can actually write
6 repos. free. open source. this is the stack that builds a prediction market hft bot
1. Polymarket/py-clob-client-v2
https://t.co/QuG1mc6rwB
official python client for the polymarket clob v2. erc-1271 signing, deterministic deposit wallets, gtc/fok/fak order types, balance-allowance sync. this is the exact api your bot signs orders against. skip it and you are reverse engineering the exchange by hand
2. nautechsystems/nautilus_trader
https://t.co/q8LZ292tGn
23k stars. rust core, python edge. event-driven backtester with parity between backtest and live, same strategy code both sides. has a native polymarket execution client built in. vectorized backtests lie about queue position. this one does not
3. hudson-and-thames/mlfinlab
https://t.co/WNwWB1lLHf
the lopez de prado stack in one package. purged combinatorial cross-validation, deflated sharpe ratio, probability of backtest overfit. if your backtest sharpe is 2.0 and your dsr says 0.4 you just saved yourself a blown account. this is the difference between a strategy and a story
4. X-DataInitiative/tick
https://t.co/henCPqJDXz
5k stars. point process library from intel. hawkes process simulation and mle inference with exponential, sum-exp, power-law kernels. news on prediction markets arrives in clusters not at random. this is how you model the cluster and read the branching ratio before the cascade
5. fedecaccia/avellaneda-stoikov
https://t.co/BYOQMJqbAn
clean reference implementation of the avellaneda-stoikov optimal market making model. reservation price, inventory skew, the closed form half-spread. read this until the reservation price intuition clicks then port it to logit space yourself for binary contracts
6. hummingbot/hummingbot
https://t.co/sn4s4DZgPb
16.9k stars. production market making framework. 50+ exchange connectors, inventory management, live order placement, kill switches. you do not need to build the boring plumbing from scratch. read how a real engine handles reconnects and reconciliation then steal the patterns
ou do not need a finance degree to start. clone these, replay one hour of polymarket book data with no gaps, get a constant-spread maker to break even in paper trading, then add one signal at a time
the math is public. the parameters are not. that gap is the whole job
the repos are free. the edge needs a live venue. here is the one https://t.co/tDCSuW9Zxx