JamesSmithNIESR

Chief Economist at NIESR. Previous lives at the Resolution Foundation, Bank of England and in the civil service. Focussed on all things economic-policy related.

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

In this week's blog @AikeyD and I look at what can be gleaned from the @bankofengland's scenario analysis about the MPC's attitude to the risk of higher for longer inflation. If anything, this suggests an extra reason for being proactive in raising rates: https://t.co/bFZpWcjckD

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

Here at @NIESRorg we’re talking about how to measure AI. Great to have James Benford, DG @ONS to hold our collective hands through it… https://t.co/uKI0g9zzvH

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Please do get in touch if you have views on @NIESRorg or thoughts on what we should be doing to improve its contribution to the debate.

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

📣Some news: after 8 years @resfoundation (& with thanks to @TorstenBell, @MikeBrewerEcon, @GavinJKelly1 and Ruth Curtice among many), I’ve now taken up a new Chief Economist role at @NIESRorg where the future is exciting as we make it a ‘go to’ voice on all things policy related

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@MehreenKhn @NewStatesman @TomMcTague @tanjil_rashid_ @piptbailey Huge congrats Mehreen - really looking forward to reading the new stuff.

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

Beautiful day in the Sierra Nevada. Hope all those working away on the Budget (particularly my lovely former @resfoundation colleagues) are not having too horrible a time…

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@bankofengland Finally, it’s all things AI related here at the @NIESRorg #LMPF2026. Great panel including @KanishkaNarayan, @DianeCoyle1859 and chaired by @haskelecon. Mostly focused on growth potential rather than the end of humanity. Mostly…

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At the @NIESRorg London Macro Policy Forum we’re talking about the monetary policy outlook. Great panel with @swatdhingraLSE, Jan Vlieghe and others. Clear theme: how @bankofengland deals with the gathering energy price shock. Difficult times ahead…

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Next up is the simple topic of QT and the public finances(!) here with my previous @bankofengland colleague Paul Fisher in full flow. Key issue here is the role QT is playing in making it harder to hit 2% inflation AND bring borrowing down.

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

@JADHazell Huge congrats Joe - very well deserved from where I sit. 👏👏👏

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

We are talking about how to reform housing taxes @resfoundation this morning. Taxes in this area are a mess - so it’s time we got some proper reform (take note @andyburnham). Do read our report on how to put this right: https://t.co/7k18tVrOvW

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Finally, this still looks like a difficult Budget. And it's not clear that today's fall in yields will even count towards headroom estimates (@OBR_UK keep its market window secret). So repairing the public finances must be a priority here- for more see:
https://t.co/knG3pJHeSs

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

BoE did not follow the Fed and ECB today, leaving rates on hold at 3.75%. But the big news was on how it unwinds QE, allowing the @UK_DMO to manage the process. Both of these are good news on the cost of borrowing but there was also bad news on the cost of living...

[JamesSmithNIESR @JamesSmithNIESR]

So theres good news for the Chancellor today in the form of falling yields off the back of the sensible DMO announcement on unwinding QE. BUT the need for support for families struggling with energy bills looks urgent. Support must be targeted. Here's how: https://t.co/jzTYBvL00l