Janatan Sayeh

Research Analyst @FDD focusing on Iran, Israel and China | Published @WashInstitute and @criticalthreats | @IRIglobal alum

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

I told @GBNEWS that Iran today is not comparable to Iraq or Afghanistan in earlier eras. Iranian society is overwhelmingly anti-Islamist with a strong national identity, highly educated, and already familiar with political processes like election campaigns and party formation.

[nejat.bahrami نجات بهرامی @nejatbahrami]

با وجود تفاوت دیدگاهها و این مخفی‌کاری‌های رژیم، آیا توافق می‌شود؟ جایگاه و شرایط اسراییل چگونه خواهدشد و چه می‌تواند بکند؟

گفتگوی بنده با جاناتان سایه، پژوهشگر در بنیاد دفاع از دموکراسی‌ها @JanatanSayeh

https://t.co/hVYRlfzqyW via @YouTube

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

IRGC says the main sticking point is article 14 of Tehran’s version of the proposal which says
“The final negotiations will not begin until half of Iran’s frozen funds are released, oil sanctions suspended, and blockade is lifted.

The final agreement will focus exclusively on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium and enrichment program, sanctions relief, and a plan for rebuilding Iran’s economy.

Discussion of Iran’s missile program and its support for resistance groups has been definitively removed from the agenda.”

[خبرگزاری تسنیم @Tasnimnews_Fa]

متن تفاهم تا این لحظه در مراجع ذی‌صلاح ایران به تایید نهایی نرسیده است

پیگیری‌های تسنیم: آخرین تحول رخ داده این است که فشار نظامی و دیپلماتیک آمریکا برای تغییر در متن ۱۴ ماده‌ای پاسخ نداده و آمریکا از طریق واسطه قطری اعلام کرده است که نیازی به اصلاحیه‌های اخیر آمریکا نیست

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

“Fragmented Iranian opposition” was debunked in January when millions mobilized under one flag & leader. All movements include various camps but “reformists” aren’t opposition and separatists pursue a different agenda. Masses are united on a transition plan against a shared enemy

[Department of State @StateDept]

https://t.co/wPahlwTUiR

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

IRAN HOLDS STANCE, TRUMP MAD AT BIBI, ISRAEL CONFUSED – w/ Janatan Sayeh https://t.co/VO9i1f5dP4

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Iran’s conventional army has failed every opportunity to demonstrate how “moderate” it is. It also lacks the institutional power to “reform” Tehran’s decision making. Regardless, defections require the rank and file to believe the end is near, and this strategy does the opposite.

[Fox News @FoxNews]

"We’ve actually left their military alone — people would be surprised to hear that."

President Trump says Iran's military hasn't been hit as aggressively because it's "somewhat moderate" compared to other elements of the regime.

He argues that wiping out "everybody" could cause a country to be unable to rebuild for generations.

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Arming Iranians isn’t a gamble as it risks very little. Threat is missiles/drones, not AKs. Even in wrong hands, extra rifles can’t harm US personnel because no ground troops like Iraq/Afg. IRGC already has plenty. By contrast, armed dissidents in cities would change everything.

[Lindsey Graham @LindseyGrahamSC]

There is no need for boots on the ground in Iran.

Instead, a Second Amendment Solution stands a real chance of giving the Iranian people a genuine path back to freedom.

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Unlike predecessors, Trump seeks to resolve the Iran problem instead of appeasing it. But he must know regime will not abandon the tools (nuke/missile) that sustain it; behavior change cannot happen. Victory means a systemic transfer of power in Tehran:
https://t.co/ptfrus5cf8

[FDD @FDD]

Blockade Pressure Mounts as Washington Rejects Tehran’s Proposal

New Policy Brief from @JanatanSayeh:
https://t.co/ZgN2eGSsNO

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

The clearest read on the mood inside Iran is the regime’s narrative turned inside out. Iranians were most hopeful when strikes were eliminating their oppressors. Post ceasefire, executions & arrests have surged and checkpoints & patrols by non-Iranian terror proxies everywhere.

[Iran in India @Iran_in_India]

Tehran, today
Beautiful, calm, powerful
As always.

[Josh Breslow @JoshBreslowTV]

President Trump CANCELLED trip of his US envoys to Pakistan after Iran's foreign minister left Islamabad ahead of their anticipated arrival. @JanatanSayeh at @FDD/@FDD_Iran joined me to discuss. @livenowfox

[Max Meizlish @maxmeizlish]

What’s missing from this post is that the Touska is believed to have been stopped for carrying dual-use goods subject to the U.S. blockade.

Container ships can carry many things at once. If Iran chooses to use a sanctioned ship owned by its sanctioned national shipping line to bring humanitarian goods into the country, it should make sure those goods are not loaded onto the same vessel as dual-use cargo that could support its military and trigger interdiction or seizure.

Unless, of course, the point is not to actually deliver aid , but to create propaganda claiming the United States is blocking humanitarian relief.

[GB News @GBNEWS]

'It feels like we're in a bit of a waiting game...'

'Tehran and Washington are waiting for the other adversary to make a mistake.'

Middle East policy expert Janatan Sayeh reacts as Donald Trump issues an order to stop Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Tehran has used the ceasefire to tighten its grip at home: escalated executions, extrajudicial killings, arrests, deployed proxies to terrorize Iranians. Leaving the people of Iran out of the equation risks alienating the regime’s true existential threat.
https://t.co/tLfNlFk1Lf

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Why would Ankara allow this? Since the Muslim Brotherhood won in Syria, there is little contention with Tehran. Turkey is content letting US-Israel absorb pressure while it hedges. A weakened Islamic Republic is optimal for Ankara, not regime collapse and not a stronger Iran.

[Iran International English @IranIntl_En]

Supporters of the Islamic Republic marched in Tabriz carrying Turkish and Hezbollah flags and chanting slogans in support of Khamenei, according to video footage circulated online, as Iranian state media described the group as a “cultural caravan of the people of Turkey.”

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Tehran better understands its leverage over Washington than the reverse. The regime knows the value of Hormuz and exploits Europe’s weak response. The US sees bombing as its main leverage, but the regime’s real existential threat is the Iranian people.
https://t.co/j0R7TZq1Xo

[GB News @GBNEWS]

‘The numbers do not lie.’

Janatan Sayeh questions why Europe isn’t reacting to the Iranian regime in the same way as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Islamic Republic was designed to outlive any one individual. Two pillars sustain it during crisis: armed forces, imposing costs on US & Israel, and repression apparatus, that kills Iranians. Regime survival now hinges on heads of parliament, IRGC, SNSC, judiciary, & police.

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

The 5 Men Now Running Iran

New policy brief @FDD ⁦@JanatanSayeh⁩ and Samuel Ben-Ur https://t.co/ob7qzD4sHB

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

Israel said 2,000 repression forces were killed so far, with some estimates nearing 5,000. The regime is begging for new recruits. Deploying Iraqis fits since most are killed or deserting. Ending this too soon risks losing air support for protesters against these terrorists.

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

IRGC is now recruiting "enthusiastic" child soldiers aged 12+ for the war. Reminds me of the Hosein Fahmide story, a 13-year old who died in the Iran-Iraq war and was portrayed as "‘yearning for sacrifice". Exploiting kids in war isn’t new for the regime.
https://t.co/hdnc7IEAz8

[Iran International English @IranIntl_En]

Iran’s ballistic missile threat is no longer abstract — it’s real and expanding. Janatan Sayeh and Farzin Nadimi warn these capabilities now extend as far as the UK. Sayeh says this shouldn’t come as a surprise: Iran has already projected missile power into Europe via Russia. But now, the threat can originate directly from Iranian territory. Watch full interview on Eye for Iran: https://t.co/NEKjTZ9h1l

[Janatan Sayeh @JanatanSayeh]

With their bases gone regime forces are embedding in civilian areas to raise the cost for Iranians & force a rally-around-the-flag effect, to no avail. They use hospitals, schools, stadiums as bases, launch missiles from residential zones @realDailyWire
https://t.co/RCJcEUigH1