i am starting my btc buy program here in the 60s, not waiting for a 55 print that may never come. id rather be wrong by 5 percent on my entry than miss the whole bottom holding out for a number. action over precision.
Good evening.
I’m getting a lot of questions about whether my conviction has been impaired or my thesis has changed about Bitcoin with its recent price weakness. The answer is an emphatic no. Why? Because I like to keep it simple and focus on first principles. While other assets are enjoying the warmth of the hot ball of money, Bitcoin will simply continue to reflect the debasement of all government sponsored currencies over the long run. Nothing more. Nothing less. Hope this helps.
Have a great night.
My net worth is somewhere around $5 million, and I can't always tell if it's made me free or just well-funded and quietly adrift. No W2 salary coming in. Three kids under four by July. I earned some of this, but the biggest pieces I didn't.
When I was 21, a junior in college, I inherited about $400,000 my grandfather built. I didn't earn a dollar of it. Later I did earn real money, a startup I worked for got acquired, and I had a genuine windfall from the exit, plus years of salary I actually saved. So I'm not going to play the trust-fund kid or the bootstrapper. The truth is messier than either.
I'm a finance major. I love this stuff, genuinely. So I did what finance majors do, I spent a decade certain I could beat the market, selling boring index funds to pick individual stocks instead. For years my account went sideways. For one long stretch it went down, below where I started. I was outsmarting myself in slow motion and calling it conviction.
Then one of the bets worked. Nvidia. I'd bought a tiny position early, back when it was just a barely more than GPUs for gaming computers. I held it through two separate stretches where it dropped enough to erase several hundred thousand on paper. The holding took some nerve. The pick was mostly luck, even if I try to rationalize the narrative i bought into (future in AI, self-driving cars, etc).
That one position is the reason a few hundred grand became a few million. And here's the line I haven't been able to say out loud until now: strip Nvidia out, and my stock-picking would have left me poorer than if I'd done nothing at all. I didn't beat the market. One lottery ticket paid for a decade of being wrong.
So most of what I have came from three things, an inheritance, an exit I was lucky to be part of, and a single stock. Almost none of it from the thing I'm proudest of: the small business I quit my career to build, which is only now hitting its stride. Funny how that works.
So that's where I'm starting from: comfortable, lucky, a little scared, and about to be responsible for three small kids on income from a business that finally works but doesn't yet cover the life around it. Brave or stupid, I genuinely don't know yet.
The $ASST announcement today was incredible.
They are moving to a 24 month cash reserve structure, approximately 18 months in USD and 6 months in $STRC.
The numbers:
• $SATA dividend obligation = ~$98 million annually.
• USD position increased from ~$93 million to ~$137 million.
• $STRC position holds steady at ~$49.5 million.
• 2500 Bitcoin purchased for ~$185 million.
They raised $175 million from $SATA alone. That is approximately 13% of their entire market cap raised in a single week.
Bitcoin on the balance sheet increased from 16,500 to 19,000. A 15.15% increase.
The Strive machine is working incredibly well.
Bitcoin Is About To DEVOUR $300 Trillion - @Strive CEO @ColeMacro
0:00 The $3T Digital Credit Market
3:24 Why 11.5% Yield Beats Selling Bitcoin
5:17 How STRC & SATA Survived Bitcoin’s Crash
6:12 Why Institutions Want More Volatility
8:37 How To Pick Between STRC & SATA
10:13 Why Preferred Equity Wins For Bitcoin Bulls
14:21 "Products, Not Securities"
16:00 Bitcoin Crashed, Their Reserve Grew
19:44 The Bitcoin Treasury Consolidation Wave
24:05 Why Most Treasury Companies Will Fail
27:50 How Managing $70B Made Him BTC Maximalist
28:44 Calling Out The Fed To Their Face
My conversation with @RobinSeyr on my Bitcoin journey & conviction, the growth of Digital Credit, what to expect with $SATA daily dividends, and why Bitcoiners should have more kids earlier in life.
[TIMESTAMPS]
00:00 - Why Strive Is Attacking the $300T Fiat Market
03:30 - The $70B Fed Insider Behind Strive
14:00 - From Rejection to All-In: Cole's Bitcoin Journey
20:00 - SATA Explained: The 13% Daily Yield
33:00 - Why Daily Beats Monthly Dividends
44:00 - Strive and Strategy: Friendly Competition
55:00 - International Markets and Multi-Currency Yield
01:05:00 - Why Bitcoiners Should Have Kids
When the facts change, I change.
My largest Bitcoin Treasury position is now $ASST. And I own a shit ton of it.
I still love Metaplanet and hold a ton of shares, but the opportunity cost is real.
Strive has a spinning flywheel, whereas Metaplanet is still waiting for all the parts to come together.
My plan is to ride up $ASST, and then rotate back to Metaplanet, once they assembled their digital credit vehicle.
But for now, the Strive team has raised the bar for everyone:
- rapid execution
- fast innovation
- great communication
- their own media arm (podcast channels)
... are the new standard.
As always, I only answer to myself, and will always do whatever is best for me and my goals.
Never follow a random Viking on the internet. Think for yourself, come to your own conclusions, and take responsibility for your own life.
And now, let's spin this beautiful $ASST flywheel to Valhalla. 🔥
The smart money knows this.
- Liquidity is the enemy of convexity.
- Scarcity is the friend of convexity.
STRIVE ($ASST) vs STRATEGY ($MSTR)
People are massively underestimating how structurally different these two setups now are.
ASST:
• ~$1.24B market cap
• ~15.4k BTC
• 1.37x mNAV premium
• ZERO debt
• Perpetual preferred capital (no maturity wall)
• Functioning preferred ATM
• Daily dividend preferred structure incoming
• ~73M share float (SCARCITY)
ASST options complex is completely insane:
• ~$2.53B CALL open interest
• ~$145M PUT open interest
• Put/Call ratio: 0.057
• Total options exposure >2x entire equity market cap
MSTR:
• ~$21.6B CALL open interest
• ~$19.7B PUT open interest
• Put/Call ratio: 0.91
• Options exposure only ~41% of market cap
Translation:
$MSTR is the institutional Bitcoin sovereign.
$ASST is becoming a small-float reflexive convexity machine.
And the market structure matters:
• Smaller float
• Higher short interest
• Massive call skew
• Cleaner balance sheet
• Positive mNAV premium
• Active capital formation
• No refinancing risk
That means marginal inflows hit a MUCH smaller bucket with ASST.
People keep staring at nominal stock price instead of structure.
The real question is:
What happens when a zero-debt Bitcoin treasury company with perpetual capital, extreme call positioning, and a tight float starts attracting reflexive inflows? BULLISH!
@mikealfred@dgt10011@hillery_dan@Strive@nithusezni@TNorth@AdamBLiv
Strategy has acquired 24,869 BTC for ~$2.01 billion at ~$80,985 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 12.6% YTD 2026. As of 5/17/2026, we hodl 843,738 $BTC acquired for ~$63.87 billion at ~$75,700 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/y1zvePEuym
There is a limited universe of listed preferred shares in Japan today. Upon listing, our preferred would be only the seventh in the market, and the first perpetual preferred. We view this as a meaningful contribution to the development of Japan's capital markets, but it is also why the path to listing is necessarily deliberate.
In the Japanese market, dividends on preferred shares are expected to be supported by sustainable cash flows generated from underlying operations. The listing review accordingly assesses dividend-paying capacity based on projected financial performance over a multi-year period, including scenarios across different market environments. Metaplanet already has a six-quarter track record in its Bitcoin Income Generation Business, and we believe it is important to continue demonstrating that the business can generate stable, recurring cash flows across both strong and weak Bitcoin market conditions. We are also continuing to articulate the scalability and long-term viability of our related operating businesses that support this cash flow profile.
A second consideration is dividend operations. Listed companies in Japan have historically paid dividends once or twice per year. The structure we are designing contemplates more frequent distributions, including monthly dividends. Implementing this requires careful work on record-date procedures, shareholder identification, dividend calculation, and recurring shareholder notice operations. We are working closely with our partners to build and modernize this infrastructure in a manner consistent with Japanese regulatory and market practice.
The process has taken longer than we initially anticipated, and we appreciate that this has created uncertainty. We are deliberate about this work because Japan today is one of the most yield-starved major capital markets in the world, and we believe a preferred equity product supported by credible operating cash flows, robust operational infrastructure, and a long-term growth strategy can meaningfully address that need. We are deeply committed to bringing this product to market, and to doing so in a form that earns the long-term trust of investors and market participants.
my general take on this question around fomo is pretty simple
“should I buy $MU at $800?”
well, if you buy it here and are not ECSTATIC to buy it 20-30% lower on a dip, then you should not give into the fomo
being on the sidelines of a trade is so much healthier than thinking you have to chase it
buying at ATHs means you are acknowledging that you want to be part of the story but the risk outweighs the reward so you HAVE to accept being ready to DCA
fomo happens when you buy something just to buy and then if it dips, you have no idea what you bought so you buy high sell low
any fomo buy should be rooted in accepting it is a chase and then being ready to average down in case it collapses
or, just don’t chase a name that you missed and be okay with missing it
it doesn’t have to be so mentally draining, there many opportunities in the market beyond the names that capture most attention and not being part of them AND not taking the risk of being part of them is okay
JUST IN: Michael Saylor explains the two reasons why Strategy is going to sell a small amount of Bitcoin
1. Capture tax credit benefits
2. Rip the faces off of shorts
Credit: @scottmelker
A few simple theses for the next 5 years:
1. Fiat supply expands to accommodate gargantuan debt loads
2. Token consumption grows exponentially as AI agents work around the clock
3. AI proliferates into the real world via robotics, smart sensors, etc.
Basic stuff. Hard to argue against those.
There is simply no limit to the demand for intelligence or physical labor.
Decoupling intelligence and labor from humans leads to an unprecedented economic revolution.
Your job is simple: Identify the assets that benefit from the changes...
And most importantly: Make sure you can hold them with conviction through the inevitable volatility.
Bitcoin in March 2020 was one of the easiest buys of my life.
It was so obviously undervalued and under-appreciated given the era we were entering.
"Money printing" and "fiat" were still niche ideas at the time.
The Jay Powell money printer meme still hadn't entered public consciousness.
Similarly, people are still sleeping on the actual coming impact of physical and digital AI.
We know it's going to big... but few understand just HOW big.
Which means there are assets right now that are the Bitcoin 2020 equivalent.
They aren't yet priced for the exponentials we're going to witness.
Some assets aligned with this future with good risk-reward in my estimation:
1. Fiat expansion: BTC, gold
2. Token consumption explosion: $NBIS $IREN
3. Physical AI: $MP $OUST (and also $NBIS)
These aren't necessarily the safest plays.
There's execution risk, geopolitical uncertainty, etc.
But if the three simple theses above play out, all of these are likely to benefit from the tailwinds.
And they're the right size right now where they actually have a chance at multiplying capital.
Five years goes by insanely quickly.
I took this picture hiking in the Jura 5 years ago.
It feels like yesterday.
BTC multiplied my capital ~8x since then
I expect these names to help me continue to compound over the next 5 years.
For everyone who has been holding Bitcoin for the last 5 years — the most hated rally of all time is coming.
Do not lose your focus.
Do not lose your conviction.
Do not get distracted.
This is when generational wealth is made.
Turkey just announced one of the most aggressive investor relocation packages in the world.
Zero tax on foreign income for 20 years. Capital gains on your overseas portfolio? Covered. Inheritance tax? Slashed to almost nothing. Corporate tax for exporters? Dramatically reduced.
This isn't a tweak. It's a full repositioning. Turkey is now competing head-to-head with the world's top tax-optimized jurisdictions for capital and talent.
The bottom line?
Capital doesn't have a passport. It moves where it's welcomed.
Governments are finally waking up to a truth that wealthy investors figured out long ago:
Money flows to where it's treated best.
The race to the top has started. Or maybe the race to the bottom... depending on which side of the tax bill you're on.
The most desirable product on planet Earth is early retirement.
A universal & highly desirable outcome that everyone wants, regardless of where they live or what language they speak.
$STRC has the world’s largest TAM, imo.
I rode MSTR from $15 in 2023 to ~$400 and am a huge fan.
My thesis is simple: Metaplanet and Strive are Mini-MSTRs in the making.
If MSTR (and Bitcoin) is successful, the others will outperform MSTR by 2-3x.
So I'm betting on the faster horse, from a pure mathematical perspective.
MSTR is fantastic, but there's no way around the law of large numbers.
Keep in mind that my goals do not have to be your goals.