J Williamson

writer/researcher at AP Research, writer of One Basis Point

[J Williamson @JayDGW]

@a_omahony_ap gm

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

One-sentence summary of today’s post: Neglect has a habit of creating value.

Using a quiet week to speculate on some UK M&A activity. Two targets we see as good value plays with takeover/merger catalysts.

https://t.co/Fs4MnRaOuv

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Bull steepening in the 2s10s curve following the jobs report. Fed hike pushed back to December.

[J Williamson @JayDGW]

@conksresearch gm

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

No. 10 has its seventh occupant in ten years, but Burnham faces many of the same challenges.

If Truss left us with anything, it’s that you have to have credibility with the bond market to survive.

Co-written alongside @MrMBrown

https://t.co/2CVrCqo4I2

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

We touched on this point in our week ahead. A hawkish Fed really dents the debasement trade.

“The debasement narrative is structural, and has not disappeared altogether. But structural stories still have to survive cyclical pressure, and right now the cyclical pressure is running in the wrong direction for gold.”

[@aahan_prometheus @AahanPrometheus]

I’ve been hearing about private credit concerns for years now

Finally someone tells what to do about it

🔥🔥🔥

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Spend a few rounds in the ring and you’ll come out with some bruises.

The AI trade picked up a few bruises last week, but it’s far from over. Also, a look into gold, the debasement trade, and dollar havens in an increasingly hawkish macro backdrop.

https://t.co/NffRT2YiMM

[PiQ @PiQMarkets]

https://t.co/sFRa4gDZNv

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

We’re seeing a new trade emerge around private credit risks, outside of the SaaS-pocalypse and Loan-mageddon.

If private credit becomes the problem, who ultimately owns the loans?

https://t.co/0LToD6wfgd

[J Williamson @JayDGW]

icl, having WC games start at 11pm fits my schedule so well

finish up after US markets, have a beer, watch the game

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Just finished a pt. II to the software / private credit trade. It includes several new additions to the short book as the trade continues to develop.

Scheduled for tomorrow morning (London).

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Taking profit on the call spread with the pair near 162. The risk/reward of remaining long at current levels doesn’t stack up for us, especially with this morning’s news that Bessent and Katayama are aligned on FX policy.

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Any chance of a Fed Put vanished last week, and the macro backdrop becomes more complicated here on out.

A few thoughts for the week ahead:

- AI funders and winners
- The hawkish hold
- Oil sentiment and physical barrels

https://t.co/T2TFW1s7W0

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Beautiful day for it.

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Hyperscalers are funding the AI buildout through capex and funding the AI winners through portfolio reallocation.

[gamma_exposure🇩🇪🇬🇧 @Tim10337907]

One step closer becoming a binary options broker.

[AP Research @AlphaPicks]

Exploring some allocations away from AI and toward sectors that benefit from the current macro backdrop.

If rates stay higher for longer, banks may be one of the few areas where earnings, valuations, and policy are all pointing in the same direction.

https://t.co/2CZtxpOUlg

[J Williamson @JayDGW]

@AlphaPicks gm