Jean Boivin

Head of @blackrock Investment Institute. Formerly Canada's G7/G20 Finance Deputy & @bankofcanada Deputy Gov.

Disclosures:

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

It may not be a pretty word. But we think it conveys the idea.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

I don't think there's been a year in my career when I haven't heard someone say, "Uncertainty is unusually high." So I'm mindful that there's not much insight in simply repeating it.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

If there were only two such scenarios, we'd describe the environment as bifurcated. But there are more than two. That's why we call today's environment polyfurcated.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

Yes, we even coined a new word: polyfurcation. This might look like a boring word, but this investment environment is definitely not boring. I hope you'll give it a listen. https://t.co/S99da216WQ

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

The AI optimists foresee a world of abundance. But I find it ironic that the closer we get to that future, the more we discover scarcity.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

Abundance versus scarcity is the theme of BlackRock's 2026 Midyear Outlook, and the starting point for my latest conversation with Oscar Pulido on The Bid. We also discuss why today's market is better understood through multiple competing futures - not a single base case.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

This is why this is uncertainty of a radically different nature than anything we have faced in the modern investment era.

That's the starting point for this year's Midyear Outlook: https://t.co/qu21e6S48U

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

Why did we call this year's Midyear Outlook Scarcity vs. abundance?

Two reasons.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

This captures the unusual feature of today’s market environment: scarcity and abundance cannot be more drastically different and yet both are conceivable in the foreseeable future. But this is a big call. Nobody really knows.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

@lisaabramowicz1 This means being prepared with a total plan B that culminates in a completely different type of portfolio.

Whatever call you make, do it with conviction. Read more in our latest Global Weekly Commentary:

https://t.co/VONq6y4PQV

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

There’s no real place to hide with the #AI mega force driving returns and infiltrating all corners of the market. It was great to discuss the current market environment with @lisaabramowicz1

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

@lisaabramowicz1 It’s not about clinging to passive portfolio diversification. AI has created an environment where active calls are necessary - even if you’re betting against AI and the U.S., as highlighted by the FT’s Katie Martin 🔗 : https://t.co/4zrTNIEecZ

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

We’re in an era of transformation driven by a few powerful mega forces — and AI now stands out more than anything else. I joined The Bid podcast to discuss our 2026 Global Outlook, the scale of the AI buildout, and how it’s shaping the key themes that will define the year ahead.

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

@FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @bsurveillance Case in point: When Fed independence was in focus this summer, the dollar held its ground against peer G10 currencies – suggesting this is about global fiscal concerns that aren’t unique to the U.S. Read more in our latest Global Weekly Commentary ➡️ https://t.co/SwoqD4NRQz

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

US #dollar down 8% this year – is it a sign its reserve status is at risk? I don’t see evidence for that so far. It was great to discuss what’s really behind its decline with @ferrotv, @lisaabramowicz1 and @annmarie on @bsurveillance. I see two main drivers…

[Jean Boivin @Jean_Boivin]

@FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @bsurveillance ✂️ Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts
📈 Fiscal concerns steepening the yield curve
It’s easy for investors to jump to conclusions about the dollar’s haven status, but we don’t yet see the dollar breaking out of its historical relationships with its usual drivers.