. @naval: I donโt think you need to have a PhD to be a scientist. If you are naturally curious and youโre rigorous and you discover new things, youโre a scientist.
One of my Twitter quips was, โThe only true test of intelligence is if you get what you want out of life,โ and that triggers a lot of people.
But how else do you know? How else do you know if youโre smart? If youโre not getting what you want out of life, how smart are you really?
You might have had bad luck once upon a time, but consistently, every time? I doubt it.
And thereโs two parts to that. One is actually testing yourself against the world to see if you get what you want.
And the other is wanting the right things in the first place. You know, I wish I was 20 years old and had wings. Umm, not gonna happen.
So you gotta wish for the right things too.
$200 milion US Treasury Buyback today.
+ $200 milion US Treasury Buyback in 5 days
+ $200 milion US Treasury Buyback in 12 days
Yellen to Powell: "CPI is not my problem" ๐
QE not QE, QT not QT, this is adding liquidity.
Mid April onwards, might be a good idea to reduce risk exposure.
Did you know Jason Derulo owns a 2 billion dollar car wash business?
Guy is mostly known for singing his own name, now owns 13 different businesses and is richer than you can imagine
Took a hundred small bets, a couple blew up
Lesson learned:
Take a bunch of bets
Experiment with 100 different things
Write posts, record video, live stream, do Spaces, release a course, write an ebook, create a Notion template (you can easily do these even with a 9-5)
I'm doing this right now with software I'm building, content, a community, Notion templates and affiliates
See what works then lean all the way in to the money makers
Be like ๐ถJaSoN DeRuLo๐ถ
"MONEY" is the measurement of "SUCCESS"...
...however "SUCCESS" doesn't always mean "HAPPINESS".
๐จ Here's a good gage to tell... if you are living congruently:
๐ (SUCCESS x HAPPINESS) ๐
Were you "INSPIRED" or "MOTIVATED" today?
6. Government printed $4 trillion
7. Housing Market crash has just begun
8. Most hawkish Fed ever, $95 Billion a month for 2.5 years sucked out
Cycles repeat for a reason, because this time is never different
Is it dumb to be cautious now? ๐งต
1. Treasury yields like $SPX is at ATH
2. 40 year high inflation
3. Fedโs raising rates like thereโs no recession
4. Dot Com bubble saw 7 relief rallies of 20%+.
5. Euro dead, China imploding, stocks moving they don't care
Moves in the Commodity markets are pricing in a recession.
If markets go up, commodity moves up discounting a recession.
Prediction, in a few months inflation to deflation then stagflation
If you want to know more about my past and why I do YT, here is a thread. I don't hide my past and always transparent.
Why?
What's in it for me?
My past
oh wow! it's real! for every $1 Fed injected, Stocks went up $0.92. Some donkey said it was bullshit and "prove" it was BS. Be careful who you listen too. Credibility matters.
watch REAL facts on the latest episode on the all in pod
https://t.co/xDy3RRDfn5
Markets are oversold, futures up. Expect a bear market rally to rip off. We are at a phase of no bad news = good news.
Despite upcoming rally, I will not remove my short position.
German inflation gone to the moon, Japan balance sheet exploding etc something will break soon.
Let me lay out bluntly what's gonna happen and why I will not remove my hedge even if stocks go to the moon.
How do you solve inflation?
1. Solve for supply ( LOL๐๐ฉ)
2. Demand destruction
The FED has only 2 mandates. Employment and stable prices.
๐ง Make an educated guess
No matter how hard the truth is, i will say it as it is.
Unlike 99% of fintwit / YT, Iโm probably the only one doing this without a financial incentive.
Fund managers, Subscription services need your $, I donโt.
I do so purposefully so i will always have your interest
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I'm pretty certain recession / crash gonna come. Oil $117, breaking out of resistance.
If you don't understand oil / base effects / supply/demand / energy creates value, you are in for a rude awakening.
Again, my predictions are always too early but it will come. Just sharing