John Wix

Flows before price, price before news.
Trading journal, not financial advice

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

@LobsterFinance If you really believe that you can get 2-1 odds right now. And house majority is likely gone but senate is still 50/50 and enough motivation to wrap things up

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

game theory pointed to a deal eventually since Trump has to make a deal by midterms and blockade was going to force Iran’s hand eventually… not that crazy

[Lobster | High Timeframe Investing @LobsterFinance]

The chances Trump has no interest in a deal given Iran is willing to offer are basically 100%.

The people who are good at games really stand out from the ones who aren’t right now.

Making the other players think you don’t want what you want is commonplace. Happens all the time.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN'S TASNIM CITES SOURCE AS SAYING THAT STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL REOPEN ON FRIDAY AFTER SIGNING OF MOU

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$TE a lot of noise on this one but
1. Leopold owns it
2. It's down 40% from highs
3. A lot of short reports saying it's a front for Trina. Seems like US is getting a technology transfer out of this? and hiring 80 roles is a lot of effort for a front

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$ASTS looks like some retail sold this to buy the "real thing" in $SPCX. But SpaceX IPO was bullish for ASTS. $2.1T valuation implies ~$700B for Starlink of which $250B is Starlink DTC. ASTS as #2 DTC player at $32B feels cheap

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

don’t know if “including foreign national Anthropic employees” is what you want to push back on if you’re anthropic… Klaus Fuchs gave nuclear secrets to the soviets

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.

The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.

Access to all other Claude models is not affected.

We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.

Read our full statement: https://t.co/bwn0sximKZ

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$NVO momentum factor works both ways

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

@Larryjamieson_ Growth story of international ADRs has some holes given $IBKR adds a new country every few months

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

If you were forced to own one of these names at 13x earnings for 5 years…

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$CRDO is closed green every day this week… believe that’s called relative strength?

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

Amazing $SMH sells off for a single day and you get a Nvidia-SK Hynix partnership and the public version of Mythos… show goes on

[Alex Heath @alexeheath]

Sources: Anthropic is planning to release a public version of Mythos tomorrow
- Will have substantial guardrails and not be as cyber permissive as what Project Glasswing partners can access
- Will be dramatically better at long-horizon, multi-turn tasks https://t.co/cqq3Y5CVb0

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$SMCI still had 15% short interest as of 5/15

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

Weekly trading portfolio update: 6/8
By cost basis & size:
$CRDO 172.45/15%
$KEEL 3.99/13%
$GFS 57.41/12%
$ARW 185.33/11%
$SEDG 55.65/10%
$DINO 69.85/10%
$FROG 80.00/10%
$SMCI (new) 44.32/10%
$HALO (new) 71.80/9%

Cash: 0%
Sold: $DIOD +22%
Stopped: $APP -8%, $ORCL Jul230 -30%

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$SMCI massive breakout from the downtrend, now testing support. Top billing alongside $DELL for Vera Rubin. Jensen could’ve said “EY resigned, brand risk, phase them out” and he did for a few quarters. But back to growing 50% and heading to 80%

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$FCEL do you have the guts to buy the first pullback to the 100 EMA?

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

Seems to be some confusion why would $GOOGL issue debt/ pay 2x cost for a 2028 data center, when they can wait for backlogs to clear in 2031. Imagine if the next GW was what you needed for skynet and you missed it bc u were waiting on a backlog

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

Our internal data shows Claude is accelerating AI development—a possible path to recursive self-improvement, or AI autonomously building a more capable successor.

It’s happening faster than we thought, and the implications deserve greater attention. https://t.co/OVVPJO7VQx

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

Today felt a lot like a leverage clear out… cuts got priced out when CPI was 3.8%. That was May 12th and the market decided to worry now? $QQQ $SMH

[Anthropic @AnthropicAI]

Our internal data shows Claude is accelerating AI development—a possible path to recursive self-improvement, or AI autonomously building a more capable successor.

It’s happening faster than we thought, and the implications deserve greater attention. https://t.co/OVVPJO7VQx

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

For software: your job as a momentum trader is not to catch the exact low but to get in the trend early when buyers show their hand. See $MSFT in 2022. Low was 213, no confirmation until 285. Was that too late? Went up another 31% in 19 weeks

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$GFS was already well positioned for power, optics now gets a customer with fintwit fave $SIVE, and has the $375M govt funding for the quantum foundry. That’s 3 narratives in its favor?

[John Wix @JimmyButlerCap]

$GFS is the type of sentiment that gets you a re-rating later. What if their investor day wasn't cope? How high does it go?