TxRedNeck1

My tweets are my own

[Orion @0xOrionVega]

In 1980, the two richest brothers in Texas tried to corner the silver market. They lost $10 billion when it broke. A 26-year-old kid on the New York Cotton Exchange watched them lose their fortune. He made one rule from what he saw. That rule made him a billionaire. His name is Paul Tudor Jones.

The Hunt brothers were right about silver. They were right about the corner. They were right about the fundamentals. Silver went from $6 to $50 an ounce in a year. They controlled roughly a third of the world's supply. Then the exchanges changed the rules, silver crashed to $10, and their $10 billion position became a $10 billion problem. Being right about the direction did not save them. Sizing the bet did.

Tudor Jones was 26 and had been trading cotton on the floor of the exchange. He watched every session of the crash unfold. He wrote down the lesson in one sentence. Never take a trade where the downside is larger than five times the upside.

That is the rule. It is called the five-to-one rule. Jones has applied it to every trade he has taken since 1980. He only enters a position where he can make five dollars for every one dollar he risks. If the math does not work, he skips the trade. He does not care how good the setup looks. He does not care what his gut says. He does not take it.

The math is what makes the rule survivable. If Jones takes ten trades and wins only three at his target, he still makes money. Three winners at 5R equals 15R. Seven losers at 1R equals 7R. Net profit: 8R. He can be wrong 70 percent of the time and still compound.

Retail traders do the opposite. They take 2-to-1 setups because those look "safer." They need to win 60 percent of the time to break even. Under stress they cannot maintain that win rate, so they blow up. Jones structured his career so his math worked at 30 percent accuracy. He has been trading for 45 years without a single career-ending loss.

Tudor Investment Corp, the fund he founded in 1980, has compounded at roughly 19 percent a year for four decades. He is 71 years old and still trading. His method has not changed since the Hunts lost their fortune.

His most-quoted line, said in a thousand interviews:

"The most important rule of trading is to play great defense, not great offense."

The five-to-one rule is what "great defense" looks like as math. Every trade you take is a bet that the downside is bounded and the upside is not. If it is not, you skip it.

The rule is free. The math is free. The Hunt brothers paid $10 billion for the lesson. Almost every retail trader pays it in installments.

[Buzz Patterson @BuzzPatterson]

Seems like a good time with the Clinton’s back in the news to replay a Buzz’s Bedtime Story: “Bill Clinton Behaving Badly.”

Hey kids, gather around while Uncle Buzz tells you another "Bedtime Story." Grab some hot chocolate, get comfy, and I’ll put another log on the fire. (In case you missed my last column, you can read it here: Buzz's Bedtime Stories: That Time I Diverted Air Force One.)

This one is a scary one! It’s all about “Bill Clinton and the AF-1 Flight Attendant.”  This one truly illustrates the “Dereliction of Duty” of President Bill Clinton. 

When I was the Air Force Military Aide to President Clinton, I traveled with him everywhere. One night, we were returning to D.C. late after a long trip to Europe on AF-1. We landed at Andrews Air Force Base, Maryland, like we always do. We helicoptered on Marine One to the White House. We were all tired. It was around midnight when we landed on the South Lawn. 

After deplaning with the “Nuclear Football” and a few of the president’s bags, I followed him to the residence elevator and ensured he was good before sending him up to bed. The presidential valets were ready to receive him. I headed to my bedroom in the East Wing. I was bushed.

I showered and crawled into my bed to fall asleep to the TV. Shortly thereafter, my phone rang, and it was the AF-1 presidential pilot. “Buzz, we have a problem,” he said. "Oh s**t,” I thought. 

Apparently, Clinton had cornered a female AF-1 steward in the galley and molested her. She was young, a staff sergeant, and married with children. I knew her, liked her, and she was super sweet. Now, she was in tears and sitting in front of the AF-1 pilot and commander. I asked the pilot, a really good guy, what she wanted. He told me that she didn’t want to be another “bimbo”; she wanted to remain in the Air Force and be promotable. She was married with young children.

All she wanted was an apology. She just wanted it to go away. In the time of Monica Lewinsky, Paula Jones, and Kathleen Willey, this wasn’t surprising to me. It was, however, terribly disappointing and sad. I knew inherently that if I, or anybody else in the military, had done something similar, we’d be at Fort Leavenworth breaking big rocks into little rocks. Yet here was the “commander in chief,” and all he was facing was the prospect of an apology. I was appalled. 

So, that morning, a few hours later, and as a young major, I had to walk to the Oval Office and tell the President of the United States that he needed to apologize to the young lady for his assault. Over my years as a combat pilot, I’ve been shot at with hot metal by men who really wanted to kill me, but this was the toughest day in my life. I remember on my way to talk with him thinking, “I didn’t sign up for this sh*t.”

I approached Clinton in the Oval Office. I’d arranged for his personal aide to be there too. He was nonplussed. Quiet. But he didn’t seem ashamed or embarrassed. 

Two weeks later, on our next trip, we got the two together on board AF-1 in the president’s office, and he offered a very uncontrite “half apology.” He didn’t care. He was filling a square and covering his tracks. It was stunningly disappointing. 

If anybody in the military had done that, it would’ve been jail, expulsion, or both. It would’ve been Fort Leavenworth. But not for this president, not for this man. It was just another day. Yet another in my experiences working for a man with absolutely no integrity and no moral fiber. Character matters in people, especially our leaders, and in Bill Clinton, there was none.

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@gen6tex @gotrice2024 @grok what's the conclusion of this issue?

[CharlieSue 🙏🏻✝️🤍🌿 @CharlieSue_USA]

@visionergeo 😉

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@OnDisasters @grok @grok?

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@OnDisasters @grok is this factual

[il Donaldo Trumpo @PapiTrumpo]

OK, WHO DID THIS???🤣🤣🤣

[King Arthur Fan @brandilwells]

If you grew up in the 1970s, you probably possess these rare traits.

[TRUTH NOW ⭐️⭐️⭐️🗽 🎺 @sxdoc]

Liberal arguments fall apart when subjected to logic.

[Anticommie @QueenAnticommie]

I think she stick a nerve..

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 VIETNAMESE MAN IN USA NAILS IT: "We have 2 million people here...we NEVER ask anyone to bow down or speak our language. Why the F does this mayor in Somalian Minnesota have to speak their language, and apologize for those crooked-a** pirates?! Since when do we have to do that?"

"What a SHAME. WTF is wrong with him?"

"Our communities are thriving. We have businesses, scientists, engineers, doctors. We give back to this country more than we take."

ABSOLUTE TRUTH NUKE 💯💯

Mayor Jacob Frey is a disgrace.

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@Matt_Pinner @grok what’s the answer

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@Beno10_MFC Collar

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@precious_fluids @SarahisCensored Not in Texas. No such thing as citizens arrest

[Gunther Eagleman™ @GuntherEagleman]

The new NYPD patrol units.

😂😂😂

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@fortworthpd Fantastic job!

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@ExxAlerts @ExxAlerts sure likes to make sensational headlines for click bait. Come on guys,
You can do better

[TxRedNeck1 @JobyBerkley]

@cath2060 @OC_Scanner Lady stop arm chair quarterbacking. You obviously do not have all the facts. @OC_Scanner is correct in their statement.

[G-PA @IndianaGPA]

The wisdom our elders offer fall on to many deaf ears 🙏🙏 Amen