Joseph J. Minarik

Senior VP and research director, CED; former Office of Management & Budget and House Budget Committee chief economist, Congressional Budget Office tax staff

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@ASimendinger Two questions (well, an infinite number, but make do): Clinton's failings were purely personal; Clinton stayed on the job, Trump says he will do no business. Will they make a difference?

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

https://t.co/EEyJSgV7o6 My favorite memory of Alice M. Rivlin, the supremely capable public servant.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@EmilArchambault @PVC10 @Philli_Eagles @JohnBerman @abbydphillip @maggieNYT @realDonaldTrump @NewDay Additional possibility is that his staff members are afraid to present him with bad news, which is another unfortunate scenario.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@SophiaAMuirhead Try this one...

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@melissashares Happy birthday!

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (9/9): Yet another growth double-count: $50 billion of savings from increasing labor force participation, on top of assumed economic and employment growth.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (8/9): Another growth double-count: Highly optimistic economic assumptions, plus a separate line in the budget for savings from faster economic growth.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (7/9): Near-3 percent growth forever. With near-zero population growth, this means near-3 percent productivity growth. Any economist would kiss the ground for that. Stated growth numbers look less audacious than they really are, because...

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (6/9): Low long-term interest rates. 10-year Treasury yield 0.7 percent higher than the 3-month. Historical average is more than 1.8 percent higher. This yield spread is smaller during recessions, higher during sustained economic growth (as assumed).

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (5/9): Large savings from tax integrity programs – after years of cutting IRS funding?

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (4/9): Extension of public health programs (health centers, e.g.) through only 2019. No prospect of elimination of those programs.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (3/9): No health care exchange subsidies after 2020. A line for repeal-and-replace-Obamacare savings, with little or no prospect for success before fiscal year 2019.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the bodies are buried (2/9): Nondefense discretionary spending by 2028 will be 1.3% of GDP, 57% lower than the lowest actual historical number. Where did we get the infrastructure deficit? How will Congress pass bills at these levels (which it couldn’t since 2011)?

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Where the budget bodies are buried (1/9): Where we start: Trillion-dollar baseline deficits as far as the eye can see, before incorporating the effects of the FY 2018 appropriations deal.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@BillKristol I'm in step with you. Er...

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@FIAWEC @24heuresdumans Full course? Or just the pit sector?

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@calvinfish As you told me, you always win!

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

@BCAppelbaum Oh, the circuitry!

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

She (and my granddaughters) can be anything they want to be... https://t.co/eeuD0L3dFD

[Liam Stack @liamstack]

Today I learned that my cousin’s 11 year old daughter somehow downloaded The Washington Post app — without my cousin’s knowledge — at the age of 9 and has been a loyal reader for the last two years.

[Joseph J. Minarik @JoeMinarik]

Trying to right the ship before we capsize it. Washington should start over and enact true tax reform for America https://t.co/FrLyRMxZTM