Joe Ndede

ESG, Finance, Corporate Law, Strategy, and Digital Transformation Lead. MckinseyForward & Mentor @Yalieastafrica & Blitzscaling partner @instantswitch_

[Odhiambo Diallo @DialloOdhi47]

@JoeNdede Hopefully we can use the funds to remove Chinese influence in Kenya.

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

The National Infrastructure Fund is officially live, backed by the biggest IPO in Kenyan history:
Kes 106.3B raised via KPC IPO,KPC begins trading on the NSE tomorrow.
IPO proceeds to serve as seed capital for the Fund.
Country is open for large-scale infrastructure investment.

[William Samoei Ruto, PhD @WilliamsRuto]

Presidential Assent to the National Infrastructure Fund Bill, State House https://t.co/ecBm6JscTe

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

Smart investing starts with balance: divide your money into four parts a quarter in cash, a quarter in real estate, a quarter in gold,& a quarter in bonds or stocks because long-term wealth is built on diversification, not concentration.

How diversified is your portfolio today?

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

Low-quality news triggers high-arousal emotions like outrage and fear, which bypass the brain's critical thinking and compel us to share before we verify.

[Orbital Resolution @orbitalresolve]

@johnkonrad Of note, Lloyd's is not a conventional insurance company. Rather, it is a 300-yr old marketplace that has traditionally approached war risks with the strategic complexity of a high-stakes chess match.

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

In Economics class, this is a definition of a "trap": the stablecoin provides individual stability for the citizen but creates systemic instability for the nation.

[International and Monetary Economics Network @int_mon_econ]

Super interesting!

"Raghuram Rajan on the Impact of the Ratcheting Effect of The Fed’s QE Program: What can the Fed learn from the monetary policy of emerging economies like India?" (Macro Musings with David Beckworth)

"In a number of countries, you’re seeing more dollarization happen. When you talk to central bank governors from these countries, that’s the great worry because, as you said, their revenue stream just goes out of the window because they really can’t print currency that people want to hold, and somebody who’s providing the stablecoin is making the money there."

https://t.co/e09Ga0XTMs

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

Uganda’s Cabinet has approved a 20.15% stake in the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) ahead of its NSE listing.
This isn't just an investment—it’s a major move for regional energy security and also Kenyans to embrace and own a share of KPC

[Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu @NankabirwaRS]

In Nairobi, I signed on behalf of @GovUganda to formalize our participation in the IPO of the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) @kenyapipeline . Through the Uganda National Oil Company @UNOC_UG , Uganda will secure a strategic stake in this critical regional energy asset.

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

In today’s environment, large incumbents generate a lot of cash and
can afford to spend large sums on their AI initiatives. Startups are in a more challenging position as they must
raise capital to compete. https://t.co/OAMllta7mH

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

"We may be all too familiar with roses as a rule, but it remains intriguing to look at a beautiful rose and wonder what forces, or perhaps intelligence, led its stem to be studded with protective thorns that say to the observer, “keep your distance.” "
https://t.co/CksYXPozs8

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

The latest @CBKKenya T-Bill auction results are out (Feb 9, 2026), & the numbers are massive.
The CBK accepted Kshs 50.04 Billion—more than double the Kshs 24B target!
The Highlights:
364-Day Bill: The big winner with Kshs 36.5B accepted at 9.19%.
Next auction is set for Feb 16!

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

I've never seen Gold return 60%+ in a year... until now.
​$38T in US debt has forced the world's hand. Major economies are bypassing the dollar for physical reserves.
​We watched Gold run from $1,800 to over $4,300.
Silver and Copper are next in line

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

"For investors, the message is clear: Wait for the volume. A rally without high trading volume can be fragile. "
https://t.co/kueegmKfVR.

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

AI may predict the mean.But alpha isn't found in the consensus or the historical average—it’s found in the nuances AI misses.
Financial modeling is less about math and more about the psychology of capital allocation. Hard to automate a 'gut feeling' about management's execution.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

My hot take is that financial modeling will never be fully automated by AI

The best analysts already know that all models are wrong. At best, good models are just directionally correct.

Despite this, the reason good analysts still build models from scratch is because it fundamentally teaches you what drives the business you are looking at

To build a good financial model, you have to understand:

> what is unit economics of the business?
> what is price and volume mix?
> what decisions will the management make to grow top line?
> what segments are growing or declining, and why?
> how will margins trend and why?
> what type of working capital does the business need?
> what capital expenditures will be needed in the future?
> how will the growth be funded?

And much more.

As you go and build your model, you have to think through each of these aspects of the business is great detail.

Not just the historical data, but rather how each one trends over the next 3-5 years in the future

This is ultimately what gives you a fundamental understanding of the business that you cannot learn by simply reading a 10K or an equity research report

In fact, equity research analysts already publish their own models that you can steal if you have access to them

Most hedge funds do have access, and yet, hedge fund analysts still build their own models internally from scratch

Similarly, if you outsource building your model to an AI, you will still be severely limited in your conceptual depth of knowledge on the company

Sure, you might use AI to tweak models here and there, or make tedious edits to an excel file

But my hunch is that the best analysts will continue to build financial models till the end of time

That will never truly go away

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

The most underrated trait that propels you through your career faster than anything else is being able to make the person above you look good in front of their boss

If you work a corporate job, the most important realization you will have is that you don’t work for the CEO, executive team or Head of Finance (or whatever other function)

You work for the person directly above you

Ultimately they are the ones who determine your bonus, your promotion and how the rest of the organization views your value to the company

Too many people make the mistake of trying to take credit for projects and go over the head of their manager with the misguided sense that it will boost your visibility

This rarely works and can just as often end up backfiring

The playbook to follow is this
> find people you want to work for
> work really hard under their wing
> figure out what tasks they hate to do
> take those off their plate and do it as often as possible
> when projects or tasks close, give them credit in front of their boss when you can

The benefits of this are two fold

> You will have found yourself a mentor who can teach you the ropes. Assuming you picked the right person to be under, you will quickly pick up on everything you need to be good at the job

> When this person looks good in front of their boss, they themselves become more likely to get promoted and move up the ladder. In the process, you will have catapulted yourself up as well

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

If the High Court sides with
Dr. Gikenyi, it would trigger a legislative earthquake.
Every tax assessment in the country would be stayed, and the KRA would need a massive budget increase to hire prosecutorial auditors to prove every cent of tax liability in court.

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

The KRA will likely argue that Article 50 (Presumption of Innocence) applies to criminal proceedings, whereas tax disputes are civil and administrative in nature.

[Julians Amboko @AmbokoJH]

There's a very interesting petition before the High Court.

Dr. Magare Gikenyi is challenging Sec56(1) of the Tax Procedures Act & the fact that by law, the burden of proof is placed on the taxpayer.

In essence, Dr. Gikenyi is challenging the fact that KRA assessments are presumed correct unless the taxpayer provides contrary evidence.

Dr. Gikenyi is arguing that this provision is unconstitutional to the degree that Article 50 of the constitution requires that everyone is presumed to be
innocent until proven otherwise & in effect, it deems the taxpayer guilty until the prove otherwise.

Dr. Gikenyi is arguing that this provision has created window for KRA to come up with "ridiculous
figures and exaggerated figures" which create enormous burden on the taxpayer to counter.

Musings:

· I am keenly waiting to read KRA's responses on this petition. The National Assembly's will be equally interesting. The traditional "presumption of correctness" hinged on the view that the taxpayer is the final repository of all information regarding their compliance is being challenged

· Jurisdictions such as Austria & France are often considered to provide the gold standard when it comes to saddling the Authority with the burden of proof

· Could a split burden of proof regime be the way to go. There will be key lessons here from the likes of Finland & Sweden

· Finally, may Justice David Majanja continue resting in peace. This one would have been fun if it went before him

[Carlos E. Perez @IntuitMachine]

Hot take: The most famous economic book of the last decade was wrong about history.

But it’s about to become terrifyingly right about our future.

New research suggests AI is pushing us into a "Jevons World" where inequality doesn't just grow—it spirals forever.

Here’s the breakdown of "Capital in the 22nd Century" 🧵👇

1/
First, the context.

In 2013, Thomas Piketty argued that the rich get richer faster than the economy grows ($r > g$), leading to an endless concentration of wealth.

Economists clapped back: "Not true!"

Why? Because historically, Labor and Capital are best friends.

2/
Think of it like this:

If you have 100 hammers but only 1 carpenter, the 101st hammer is useless.

Capital (hammers) needs Labor (carpenters) to be valuable.

This "complementarity" meant that as the rich accumulated more stuff, they eventually had to pay workers more to use it.

Inequality self-corrected.

3/
The Pivot:

Trammell and Patel argue that Piketty was wrong about the past... but is a prophet for the future.

Why? AI breaks the friendship.

With advanced robotics and AGI, Capital no longer needs Labor.

Capital becomes a substitute for Labor.

4/
We are moving from a "Baumol World" to a "Jevons World."

In the Jevons World, robots build robots.

The bottleneck of "human hands" disappears.

The return on capital doesn't fall as you accumulate more of it.

It stays high. Indefinitely.

5/
This triggers a terrifying feedback loop.

If you own the robots, you capture 100% of the upside.
If you sell your labor, your value drops to near zero.

Without the "labor bottleneck," there is no natural economic force to stop one person from owning... well, everything.

6/
The "Privatization of Returns"

Have you noticed you can’t buy stock in the hottest AI companies?

OpenAI, xAI, Anthropic—they are private.

Only the ultra-wealthy (and Sovereigns) get access.

By the time they go public, the explosive growth phase is over.

The ladder is being pulled up.

7/
The Global Tragedy

This is even worse for developing nations.

Historically, poor countries got rich by using cheap labor to attract foreign capital (The China Model).

But if a robot in Ohio is cheaper than a worker in Vietnam...

The ladder for developing nations vanishes.

Global catch-up growth ends.

8/
The Inheritance Economy

In this future, "earning" money becomes a myth.

Wealth will be determined by:
Who you were born to.

How "patient" your ancestors were (did they save or spend?).

We return to a world of dynasties, maintained by "commitment tech" (trusts that prevent heirs from splurging).

9/
So, are we doomed?

Not necessarily. But the playbook has to change.

The authors argue that in a world where Labor is worthless, the only way to distribute power is to Tax Capital.

Heavily.

10/
The problem? Capital is slippery. 🏃💨

If the US taxes robots, the server farms move to Dubai.
Without unprecedented global coordination, the "Capital Flight" will make taxation impossible.

11/
The "Georgist" Hope

One thing can't move to Dubai: Land.

The paper suggests taxing natural resources and land might be our best bet.

You can move the AI, but you can't move the silicon mines or the prime real estate.

12/
The Takeaway:

We are standing on the precipice of a fundamental economic phase shift.

If AI makes Capital a true substitute for Labor, the old rules of "hard work pays off" dissolve.

We need to design the policy for the 22nd Century now, before the cement dries.

13/
If you want to dive deeper into the math behind the "Jevons Paradox" and the end of labor, check out the full paper by Philip Trammell and Dwarkesh Patel.

It’s a sobering, fascinating read.

Subscribe to my feed for more breakdowns of frontier thinking. 🔔

[Jostein Hauge @haugejostein]

Countries that have been successful with industrial policy typically share three key features:

1. Mobilising high rates of investment into productive sectors of the economy. This involves a range of state actions, including directing investment toward manufacturing and infrastructure, state ownership in strategic sectors, incentivising household saving, capital controls, the strategic attraction of FDI, and subsidised lending to the industrial sector.

2. Making bets across multiple sectors, with the understanding that not all bets will succeed — but some *must*. In other words, the state needs to operate with the mindset of a venture capitalist with long term national objectives in mind.

3. Reciprocal control mechanisms. The state must put in place financial incentives — both carrots and sticks — that push the private sector to compete in export markets and continuously upgrade technologically.

Hear me discuss this and much more regarding the practice of industrial policy in my recent conversation with Keith Yap. We discussed especially industrial policy in the Asian Tigers, China, and the United States (link to full interview in replies).

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

People just starting off wildly underestimate the number of reps it requires to be an expert at something

Competitive career paths and companies where you get to be around the best people in your industry are a blessing for this reason

You get to see just how "good" the top people really are, and what it takes to get there

Either it motivates you to pursue the same and start getting those reps, or it makes you realize that the amount of personal sacrifice required is just not worth it

Either way, it's a very valuable lesson

[Joe Ndede @JoeNdede]

Nuances of the stock market clearly explained by this 70's video.

[Toivo ja Teemu Ruskeepää @ToivojaTeemu]

@mindsetmachine A longer version