Joseph Forman

Timing is Everything

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

🚨 BREAKING: Xabi Alonso has accepted to become Chelsea next manager, HERE WE GO! 🔵🔜

The agreement is set to be completed.

#CFC prepare official announcement for the upcoming days, but Xabi said YES. 💣

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

For the first time this cycle, the implied December 2027 SOFR rate is above the current Fed Funds Rate.

The rate cut cycle is officially in question.

[Joseph Forman @Joe_Shmo_]

@stocktalkweekly $FIVN? Guiding 10% YoY Rev Growth trading at NTM P/S at 2.1x. Increase in EBITDA margin from 18.8% to 24.4%. Cheap and deserves a re-rating if subscription revenue growth can push towards 20%.

[Joseph Forman @Joe_Shmo_]

@StocksOnSpaces $MRAM - Non-volatile memory ($300M)

[Fabrizio Romano @FabrizioRomano]

🚨 BREAKING: Chelsea have decided to SACK Liam Rosenior with immediate effect.

It’s OVER after 4 months, and 5 consecutive defeats with 0 goals scored. ❌

[B. @InvertTheWing]

Rosenior and Potter basically have had identical tenures.

Come to replace a manager that shouldn’t have been sacked (Tuchel, Maresca).

Start off undefeated, seem semi-serious.

Collapse and play hideous football, but won’t get sacked because the board can’t swallow their pride of saying that replacing the previous manager was a bad decision.

[The Masters @TheMasters]

It's here. Good morning from Masters Monday. #themasters

[Matthew Zeitlin @MattZeitlin]

jordan belfort's response is amazing, the literal wolf of wall street is dumbfounded to encounter a more sociopathic salesbrain than his own

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

*TRUMP ADMIN TO SUSPEND 'JONES ACT' TO TAME OIL PRICES

[Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook]

At the surface, the index is trading in one of the tightest two-month ranges in history. Meanwhile, down in the trenches, the average single stock is realizing ~25 vol points over the index, the highest reading on record.

GS Garrett via @ConnorJBates_

[Justin Trudeau @JustinTrudeau]

You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game.

[Noel Smith @NoelSmith]

S&P is flat over the past month, but the average stock moved 10.8% — a dispersion spread at the 99th percentile over 30 years. Crushed correlations (1m rCorr 8.9) driven by massive Growth-to-Value rotation, pod shop de-risking at 100th %ile gross leverage, and 0DTE/leveraged ETF amplification have made dispersion trades (long single-stock vol, short index vol) wildly profitable. The catch: prior 99th %ile dispersion events have historically clustered around major market shocks, with the backtest showing ugly negative median SPX returns in the t+2m to t+3m window. Small sample (n=8), but a clear caution flag. Source is Nomura:

[Stock Talk @stocktalkweekly]

*ASML POSTS NEW ORDERS/BOOKINGS AT €13.16 BILLION VS. €6.85 BILLION ESTIMATE $ASML

[Warren Pies @WarrenPies]

The Fed expects:
-Steady (4.4%) unemployment,
-GDP to ramp, AND
-Maintains a cutting bias.

That's all you really need to know.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

This is one of the most important conversations we have done. Watch the full U Got Options episode with @ConvexityDredge here 👉 https://t.co/Ms1zHlUplT

[Hunter Ash @ArtemisConsort]

The thing you have to remember about this woman and those like her is that she genuinely doesn’t know that anyone disagrees with her basic worldview. She doesn’t even see it as a worldview. It’s just the obvious truth.

Of course she knows abstractly that half the country voted for Trump. But those aren’t people. Those are cartoon characters. They’re either fat slobbering rednecks in klan hoods, or mustache-twirling robber barons manipulating the rednecks for profit. Her mental models of them are less complex than her mental model of a squirrel. Anyone she might actually sit down and talk to is, of course, a person, and therefore agrees with The Obvious Truth. It is inconceivable to her that anyone capable of being a pleasant dinner party guest would not share her basic beliefs and values.

She wasn’t trying to do a gotcha or extract a pledge of fealty. She was certain that Sydney Sweeney is a person, and therefore only got mixed up in the whole jeans/genes fiasco by mistake. She was trying to do Sydney a favor by giving her a chance to clarify that she is in fact a human being who agrees with the things all real people agree with.

[Tim Dillon @TimJDillon]

It’s 2027. I’m sitting on a free bus. Open stab wound still dripping. On my way to the grocery store to get bread. The man next to me is cooperating with the neighborhood mental health officer but he’s still gripping the knife. I feel a sense of regret wash over me. Why didn’t I bet on this when I had the chance?

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔 JPMorgan's $10 billion rare earth investment announcement just triggered massive moves in the sector, with some stocks jumping over 40% in premarket trading. This represents Wall Street finally waking up to the national security implications of China's supply chain dominance we've been discussing.

The Strategic Shift
JPMorgan's new 10-year initiative to "finance and invest in industries critical to national economic security" signals that rare earth supply chains are now viewed as financial and security assets rather than just industrial inputs. When major investment banks commit this kind of capital with explicit national security framing, it shows the strategic vulnerability has moved from Pentagon briefings to boardroom priorities.

Government Involvement Accelerating
The government recently took a stake in MP Materials, and reports suggest officials are "looking for more in a deliberate and expansive way" for different ores needed for defense products. This isn't just industrial policy anymore, it's economic warfare preparation where private capital and government strategy align around supply chain resilience.

Market Reality Check
While these stocks are soaring on the news, I think investors need to remember the long development timelines for rare earth projects. Building processing infrastructure takes years, and China still controls 85-90% of global processing capacity. The euphoria might be premature given the actual timeline to reduce dependency.

My Take
This JPMorgan commitment validates concerns about strategic resource vulnerability but also shows how quickly markets can pivot when national security meets investment opportunity. The rare earth sector is transitioning from a niche industrial play to a critical infrastructure investment theme. However, investors should distinguish between companies with actual production capability versus those just positioned to benefit from the policy shift, because the physics of mining and processing don't change just because the money gets bigger.

Hedgie🤗

[Insider Paper @TheInsiderPaper]

VP JD Vance: "I listen to Kamala Harris for 90 seconds and I actually feel like I've gotten dumber in the process."

[CALEB PRESSLEY @calebpressley]

🍨 SUNDAE CONVERSATION 🍨

with Lamar Jackson (@Lj_era8)

Presented by @Underdog