Joël

[The Hormuz Report @HormuzReport]

BREAKING: Donald Trump privately admitted to administration officials that the U.S. can't sustain the Iran war — and is now considering formally declaring it over, with officials saying he strongly favors the idea, per WSJ.

The admission comes as Iran launched another surprise attack on U.S. assets in Kuwait, while Washington has not even responded to the latest Iranian strikes or the previous wave that hit 7 American bases across 5 countries.

A U.S. official said the White House is concerned about surging oil prices and interceptor stockpiles now "close to zero."

[Gublo🇨🇦 @Gubloinvestor]

Hardworking Canadian couples are busy at work.
Their nuclear families are divided.

kids are in daycare, and parents are at the office.

They have no time for their kids, let alone time to make them play sports.

Meanwhile, Mohammad from the Middle East does not work.

He stays home with his wife and six children, and the government pays them $70,000 a year.

He has all the time in the world to teach his kids his religious beliefs, and all the time in the world to make his kids follow his Islamic routine.

An average Canadian couple is working so much that they barely have time to devote to their kid or kids, if they even have any.

They are working so Mohammad can stay home.

The system is broken.

Actually, it’s designed by unseen people. Sad, but it's today’s reality.

Saskatchewan is living example of it…

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

18 OUT OF 18.

Since 1954 The S&P 500 $SPY has been higher 12 months after every midterm.

That’s a 100% WIN RATE

Average gain: +18.2%.

With October historically producing the low.

I’m not waiting until 2027 to build my AI watchlist.

So I’m already building my 2027 AI roadmap:

COMPUTE
$NVDA $AVGO $AMD $TSM

MEMORY + STORAGE
$MU $SNDK $WDC $STX

OPTICS + PHOTONICS
$COHR $LITE $AAOI $GLW

NETWORKING
$ANET $CRDO $MRVL

SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT
$ASML $AMAT $LRCX

AI CLOUD
$CRWV $NBIS $ORCL $AMZN

AI SOFTWARE + DATA
$PLTR $SNOW

DATA CENTERS
$VRT $EQIX $IREN

ELECTRICAL + COOLING
$VRT $ETN $PWR

POWER
$CEG $VST

NUCLEAR
$CCJ $OKLO $NLR

COPPER
$FCX $COPX

EDGE AI
$QCOM $ARM

ROBOTICS + AUTONOMY
$TSLA $SYM $SERV $BOTZ

CRITICAL MINERALS
$MP $USAR $REMX

Phase 2 starts next year the AI Cycle

Now watch what connects it, stores it, builds it, powers it, cools it and moves AI into the physical world.

Save this roadmap for 2027.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

European yields are surging... This is bad news for the US.

Europe is the biggest foreign holder of USTs. Surging yields combined with huge fiscal deficits will increasingly force European governments into a tough choice:

1. Print into an inflationary spike
2. Sell USTs to raise liquidity at home

By starting the Iran war, the US is choking off its own funding source...

We all don't own enough gold for what's coming.

[Michel Simoneau @McMichelSim]

Une coquerelle puante fédéraliste

[middleclassparty @middle_class_us]

The American economy has a customer problem.

Here's what happens when everything gets too expensive:

People stop fixing the car.

They stop eating out.

They stop shopping.

They delay buying the house.

They keep the old phone.

They cancel the vacation.

They cut everything that can possibly be cut.

Eventually businesses discover something important:

Your customers need money too.

You cannot extract every available dollar from the middle class and then act surprised when nobody has anything left to spend.

[Nic @puckrin]

Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The backdrop:

- Inflation: 3.7%
- Core PCE: 3.3%
- The bond market: pricing rate hikes
- The consumer: slowing
- 30-year yields: highest since 2007

The Fed is being pulled in opposite directions.

Warsh's speech could tell us which risk he's more worried about.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 THE FED IS NOW STUCK BETWEEN A SLOWING ECONOMY AND INFLATION THAT WON'T COME DOWN EASILY.

GDP grew just 1.5% in Q2, in line with expectations but well below last year's pace.

The economy is slowing.

PCE inflation came in at 3.7% in July, above the 3.6% expected and nearly double the Fed's 2% target.

But it is down from 4.1% in May, so the direction is improving even if the level is still too high.

This is the trap.

When growth slows, the normal response is to cut rates. But at 3.7% inflation, cutting makes it worse. The Fed cannot cut and staying still risks falling further behind.

The July FOMC vote was already 9 to 3. Three officials voted to hike immediately.

Markets are pricing in a 36% chance of a September hike.

On the other side, the Treasury doubled its bond buybacks and signaled it could draw from its $950 billion general account without issuing new debt.

That is significant liquidity waiting in the system.

Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Whatever he signals on rates will set the tone for September and beyond.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Is Scott Bessent about to slap sanctions on 🇨🇦 TD Canada Trust or 🇩🇪 Deutsche Bank?

[Joël @Joel_Mailhot]

@alexgauthier92

[Joël @Joel_Mailhot]

@valerijatrades1 Nice sports 🎾

[Jason Luongo @JasonL_Capital]

Peter Lynch averaged 29% a year for 13 straight years. He did it with one favorite metric: the PEG ratio.

PEG = P/E divided by growth. Under 1 means the growth is on sale.

Here are 10 stocks under 1 right now:

1. $SOFI ~0.9x

Record $1.2 billion in quarterly revenue, record member growth, profitable, and guidance just raised. The PEG is under 1 because the market still prices it like a niche lender instead of the bank an entire generation is switching to. That mispricing is the opportunity.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

Bessent found no support for sanctions against Iran

Trump is now panicking again and begging for a deal

Trump won't get a deal where he doesn't look like a loser

Trump threatens military strikes again

Trump TACO

Rinse and repeat till crude oil market hits a brick wall

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

The US simply can't afford this war... and the market knows it.

Normally, during times of crisis, investors seek safety in bonds, especially US Treasuries... supposedly the safest assets in the world.

But this time is different.

Investors are looking at:

- $40T in debt
- ~$120T in unfunded liabilities
- $2T annual deficits
- Debt issuance growing ~8% per year since 2000
- 10-year yields approaching 5%

You can't enter a major war with debt-to-GDP above its WWII peak and expect the rest of the world to finance it.

Especially when it's becoming increasingly obvious that you're losing.

[Gandalv @Microinteracti1]

Scott Bessent has apparently discovered a pot of nearly a trillion dollars sitting in the Treasury General Account and decided the clever thing to do is spend it buying back America’s own bonds. Which is a bit like finding your emergency savings and using them to bid up the price of your own house so the neighbours stop asking questions.

Here’s what he doesn’t seem to grasp. The intervention isn’t the problem. The signal is. Healthy bond markets don’t need the Treasury Secretary wading in with the national piggy bank. The moment you do it, every trader on Earth concludes that something, somewhere, is quietly on fire.

So Bessent thinks he’s projecting strength, calm hands on the wheel and all that. What he’s actually doing is standing in the middle of the market shouting “nothing to see here” through a megaphone. Markets always believe the megaphone.

Stay ahead of the curve, follow @Microinteracti1

[Amit Noam Tal @amital13]

LOL 🙃

Once again, Bessent appears to be trying to steer market algos with a headline - but the underlying story is much less dramatic.

The TGA is the U.S. government’s operating cash account, not an investment fund or a discretionary pool of capital. Treasury maintains a substantial cash buffer there to cover day to day obligations, debt redemptions, and periods of unusually large outflows.

According to the New York Fed, Treasury’s long-standing cash-management policy is to hold enough liquidity to cover roughly one week of net cash outflows, including large debt maturities.

So framing the current TGA balance as freely deployable “firepower” is misleadin..

And if Bessent does in fact draw down the TGA while continuing to lean heavily on T-bill issuance, he is effectively increasing the Treasury’s rollover risk.

#repo #bonds

https://t.co/aDJeJgWWm2

[Devoted Dividend Investor @DevotedDividend]

Income ETF cheat sheet 🔖📜

Weekly cash → $CHPY $AHD $ODTE
Monthly cash → $SPYI $QQQI $XQQI
Tech income → $XLKI $TDAQ $KQQQ
Energy income → $XLEI $MLPI
Gold income → $KGLD $IAUI
International → $VYMI $IDV $OVF
Compounders → $SCHD $DVY $HDV

Save this one 💾

[Nic @puckrin]

It's pretty clear what happened with this week.

Trump didn't talk about the stock market - he talked about interest rates.

He wanted them lower & asked Bessent to make it happen.

Of course, Bessent is a market man.

He knew that this intervention wouldn't do much & could even make it worse given the signal it sent.

Now that it's backfiring, Trump will turn to the only other person he can: The Fed chair.

[Bogachan Ozdemir @Bogachan_1971]

Scott Bessent executed FX trades for George Soros early in his career. Somehow, he learned nothing from Soros.

Soros made money by carefully betting on the difference between what governments should do vs what they were doing.

Bessent never understood this. He believed that governments can dictate prices as if he worked for Soviet or Chinese Politburo. When he went on his own, he never made money and his fund got decimated.

Bessent believes that US Government can dictate bond or oil prices. He is the type of politician Soros always bet against successfully.

It is amazing that most of the commentators cannot see this and still praise this man. We are accelerating to the wall and clowns are applauding.

[Lars Christensen @MaMoMVPY]

The US Treasury has ZERO firepower...it's running a massive budget deficit - inflation remains well-above 2% and NGDP is close to 8% than 4%.

The only sustainable way to get US yields down is massive fiscal consolidation, but the US population is not willing to accept the medicin. It is a deep fiscally irresponsible country and the Trump administration has done everything to undermine it's "Exorbitant privilege".

Take the medicine now or accept a massive spike in US inflation, dollar collapse and much higher rates and yields.

Bessent should stop fooling around playing god in the global financial markets (we know from his hedge fund expirience that is is far from a genius) and instead annonce massive structural reforms - including spending cuts and tax hikes.