Jonathan Borck

Economics, statistics. Vice President at @analysisgroup. Adjunct Lecturer in Public Policy at @Kennedy_School. All tweets are my own.

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Best day of the year! #api201 @Kennedy_School

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Thank you, @RobertStavins. Proud to have worked with you, Todd Schatzki, and my @analysisgroup colleagues on important economic issues at the heart of equitable apportionment cases.

[Robert N. Stavins @RobertStavins]

Unanimous decision today from Supreme Court in decades-long Florida v Georgia water dispute, in which I was honored to serve as the lead economist for the State of Georgia, working with talented & dedicated team at @analysisgroup. https://t.co/0YZpMYs20B

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Analyses like these will be important. Are we looking at "normal" polling errors due to sampling fluctuation? Or something else? #api201

[Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn]

Some early theories on went went wrong with the pre-election polling this year
https://t.co/2Byh7efsXc

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

From one of The Economist's modelers. Morris sees more problems with polls, fewer problems with the models that aggregated the polls. #api201

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

"... because polling errors are somewhat correlated from state to state, if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he would no longer be a favorite..." #api201

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

👋 I'm here to remind you that Trump can still win.

https://t.co/DqVm8I5Svd

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

This will be a big part of #api201 Problem Set 7!

[Emily Guskin @EmGusk]

Rule of thumb:
1. Double a poll's error margin
2. Look at the difference between two candidates in the horse race
3. If the number in #2 is smaller than the number in #1, neither candidate has a lead

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

One of our #api201 lessons: Don't round probabilities to 0% or 100%!

[(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten]

Folks, please don't round 10-15% to 0%. Trump's chance of winning is roughly equal to what Biden's chance was of getting a plurality of delegates after he lost the first few contests in the Dem primary season. (Obviously, Biden won that.) https://t.co/PfuOn79kVD

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Ready for a class inspired by one of my dearest mentors, the great Richard Zeckhauser. #api201

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

We covered at least two in #api201!

[Chris Hayes @chrislhayes]

No choice but to conclude that seven months into this they're actually all just too stupid, collectively to understand "incubation period," "test sensitivity" and "test specificity"

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Several reasons for this, a main one being a straightforward application of Bayes' Rule. #api201.

[Sam Stein @samstein]

A negative test today doesn’t mean you’re out of the woods.

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

@tedsvo I'm a convert! I use Teachly in ways big and small. For instance, it helps me bring students who haven't participated as much - but have unique experiences and insights - into the conversation. A huge innovation.

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Another semester about to begin! #api201

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Starting to transform a basement storage closet into a credible, attractive remote teaching space. Plausible? Or hopeless? #api201

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Will there be another mortgage crisis driven by the coronavirus? My co-authors Mark Howrey and Lauren Hunt and I draw lessons from the Great Recession.

[Analysis Group @analysisgroup]

The second edition of Forum 2020 features noted economist Austan Goolsbee’s observations about the 2008 financial crisis, and articles on bankruptcy valuations and mortgage markets during the pandemic. https://t.co/LxoJYk8YZ5

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

An election model worth following. A welcome addition to the field! Life is full of uncertainty. #api201

[Andrew Gelman et al. @StatModeling]

Election 2020 is coming: Our poll aggregation model with Elliott Morris of the Economist https://t.co/xmzCIcRJmd

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Will we see widespread mortgage defaults in the COVID world? What can we learn from the Great Recession?

[Analysis Group @analysisgroup]

In @Law360, Managing Principal Mark Howrey and Vice Presidents Jonathan Borck and Lauren Hunt consider #COVID19 mortgage litigation matters in light of the Great Recession. https://t.co/jfNAvnhdWD

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Connecting to #api201

[Yale Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases @YaleEMD]

(3/n) Similar to hurricane predictions, there are probabilities surrounding the severity and impact of coronavirus. Early on, mostly due to a lack of appropriate data and many possible outcomes, we have lower confidence in the probability of outcomes.

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

To all my former #api201 students...

[Taal Levi @taaltree]

Antibody tests are coming online. Never before have humans needed to understand Bayes rule more. Let's talk about why it's critical NOT to assume you are immune to covid-19 when you have a positive antibody test. Seriously, people need to understand this to prevent many deaths.

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

My homebound, #Harry obsessed daughter is wondering if you would do a read aloud, @jk_rowling. I'm sure a few others would be interested too...

[Jonathan Borck @JonathanCBorck]

Professor @tedsvo, don't forget the suit and tie!

[Teddy Svoronos @tedsvo]

Ready for class!

(I swear I use all of these when I teach)