José Silva

PhD student in Economics @ FGV-EPGE
Football data nerd @ScoutLabApp

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

@JerryEngelmann From that chart, his overall impact is clearly positive. So why are you trying to imply that it's the opposite?

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

@jturek18 Given the methodology, that’s not a reliable real time inflation metric. The latest data points will constantly be revised. I thought about replicating it, but didn’t see any value.

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

@ernietedeschi I think it's important to account for age when making this kind of comparison.

https://t.co/mCCdocTf6i

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇺🇸 Projection for Core PCE | April 2026

Based on detailed CPI & PPI data, my tracking points to 0.23% MoM (vs 0.29% in march).

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇧🇷 PMS | Março 2026

• Índice Geral
• Índices - Aberturas
• Difusão QoQ
• Variação Trimestral

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇧🇷 PMC | Março 2026

• Índice: Varejo Ampliado ex-Atacarejo
• Índices - Aberturas
• Difusão QoQ
• Variação Trimestral

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

@NickTimiraos These median and trimmed mean metrics are heavily influenced by Rent/OER, which captured two months’ worth of variation in this release. Even so, they remain closer to the center of the distribution than to the extremes.

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇺🇸 CPI | April 2026

Underlying Inflation = Average from 5 metrics:
• CPI ex-Food at Home & Energy
• Atlanta Fed Sticky-Price
• FRBC-OER8-RENT8 Median
• Symmetric 8% Trimmed-Mean
• Symmetric 15% Trimmed-Mean

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

Não dá para culpar só a guerra pela surpresa na inflação nesse começo de ano.

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇧🇷 IPCA | Abril 2026

• Média dos núcleos do BCB
• MoM bruto: Headline e Núcleos
• Núcleos de Serviços
• Núcleos de Industriais

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

Pretty compelling argument in Garciga et al. (2026) for finer shelter disaggregation in Median CPI. Feels like a natural step for @ClevFedResearch.

https://t.co/RhgF0b9OAE

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

Hard to see why the BLS lacks a proper historical CPI weights database. Would be great if @ClevFedResearch shared this for Median/Trimmed-Mean. I could only go back to Dec/01 due to missing regional weights, needed for OER.

https://t.co/PSDb6vNVRx

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

@conorsen In first differences, cyclical sectors do appear to have bottomed out around mid-last year and have gained traction in recent months.

Using @ernietedeschi’s cyclical vs. acyclical split: https://t.co/aQGgBH87nL

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇺🇸 Payroll | April 2026

• Total Employment Change
• Cyclical vs Acyclical Industries
• Composition Adj. AHE (Total)
• Composition Adj. AHE (Prod. & Nonsupervisory)

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇧🇷 PIM-PF | Março 2026

• Índice Geral
• Índices - Aberturas
• Difusão QoQ
• Variação Trimestral

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇧🇷 IPCA-15 | Abril 2026

• Média dos núcleos do BCB
• Serviços
• Industriais
• Alimentação

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

🇧🇷 CAGED | Março 2026

• Saldo de Criação de Vagas
• Difusão
• Quits Rate
• Variação Nominal da Mediana do Salário de Admissão

[José Silva @JoseSilva933]

Tenho usado Claude para reconstruir algumas bases econômicas que eu costumava olhar e vou postar de vez em quando alguns gráficos para deixar guardado.