Joseph

value, not views.

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

"amateurs don't know what to do. professionals know what not to do."

Jamie Dimon quoting one of the best lines in risk management.

this applies to trading more than anything. your edge can also be in the trades you don't take.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Huge correction in precious metals today. Silver is down -27%, gold is down -10%, making the correction in Oct. '25 during the IMF/WB meetings look like kindergarten. The debasement trade is going to be around for a long time, so this correction - like October - won't last long.

[Darius Dale @DariusDale42]

This is one instance in which I HATE to say, “I told you so”: https://t.co/RoRz7wLdCG

Pleeeeease start preparing your family for this. And if I’m wrong, then you’ll simply have a lot more savings 5-10 years from now. A win-win. 💜

[Sunil Gurjar, CFTe @sunilgurjar01]

Mark Minervini (35000% Returns).📊

Strategy - SEPA Technical Setup👇🎯

#trading

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Foundations: The Psychology of Investing in the Information Age
The Warren Buffett Archive, AI, and Decision-Making

In his seminal book, Influence, Cialdini describes “Fixed Action Patterns” deeply embedded in the human mind. In short, they are:

Scarcity: The more limited something is, the more people value it – regardless of its true value

Reciprocation: If someone does us a favor, or gives us something, we feel obligated to reciprocate their generosity somehow

Social Proof: We tend to mimic the behavior of the crowds around us, especially in the presence of uncertainty

Liking: It is easier for us to be persuaded by the opinions of those whom we like or find attractive

Authority: The opinions of anyone viewed as an “authority” carry a lot of weight, even in areas where the authority has no expertise

Consistency/Commitment: Once we’ve arrived at a conclusion or made a choice, we often stick by it

Unity: When we identify closely with a given group, we revert to tribalistic behavior and favor those in our group while disfavoring those not in it
https://t.co/o33InPKUVt

[Goldman Sachs @GoldmanSachs]

Worldwide economic growth is expected to outperform consensus estimates next year, according to the Macro Outlook 2026 from Goldman Sachs Research.

Read the 2026 Outlook: https://t.co/tbmy5to79k

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

https://t.co/KSrFR8z0cA

[True market Leader @TmarketL]

How to size your position when you’re winning

[◢ @joemccann]

The S&P 500 is now still 37% below the +2σ line, which has marked every market top for two centuries.

Higher.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

If you’ve never read, ‘The Anguish of Central Banking’ by Fed Chair Arthur Burns, Sep ‘79, it should be required reading. It’s exhibit 1A…The Fed has arrived @ the 🔫 fight with a🔪 & is destined to lose its battle with inflation.
https://t.co/CFG2qOhgJd

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

"Most people do not subscribe to the idea that a few narrow sectors drive all the booms and busts."

https://t.co/s71M5nWM0h

[illuminatibot @iluminatibot]

Ex-Google CEO's BANNED Interview LEAKED: "You Have No Idea What's Coming"

Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently made headlines with some controversial comments about AI during an interview conduced at Stanford University. This interview was taken down at his request after he admitted to misspeaking. But did Eric Schmidt actually let on to something big coming in terms of the future of AI?

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🌎 WE ARE ENTERING THE MOST DANGEROUS ERA SINCE WORLD WAR II

Borders are shifting. Wars are spreading. America is pulling back, China is pushing forward, and Russia is gambling everything. @ianbremmer says the global system that kept the world stable for decades is dead, and what replaces it will be far more dangerous.

This is not a Cold War.
This is a free-for-all.

We get into:

•⁠ ⁠Why the U.S. is losing its grip on global leadership
•⁠ ⁠How China and Russia are quietly teaming up to challenge the West
•⁠ ⁠Why Europe is more fragile than anyone wants to admit
•⁠ ⁠How NATO missteps pushed Putin toward full-scale invasion
•⁠ ⁠Why nuclear risks are higher today than in the 1980s
•⁠ ⁠And what happens when every major power is acting alone with no rules and no referee

Bremmer says the world has entered a G-Zero era. No leadership. No guardrails. No safety net. Just rising tension and a global landscape one mistake away from disaster.

01:05 – Introduction to the G-Zero world with no global leader
01:58 – Why G-Zero increases accidents and escalation
03:09 – The global economy is the most G-Zero of all sectors
04:09 – AI is a tectonic technological shift reshaping power
05:46 – “AI is the only thing that can take down the US”
07:07 – AI competition framed as a positive externality
08:08 – The need for global AI governance similar to the IPCC
09:28 – Lack of trust blocks AI cooperation between nations
10:39 – Geopolitics increasingly driven by domestic instability
12:28 – Biggest threat is internal fracture, not great-power war
13:17 – Polarization now the engine of global instability
14:38 – Israel–Gaza seen as a symptom of broader breakdown
17:09 – UN Security Council described as completely irrelevant
18:50 – US has less leverage over Netanyahu’s cabinet
21:30 – Trump’s impact on alliances and global order
23:01 – NATO revived, but the G7 is losing relevance
24:46 – Europe must wake up and pay for its own security
26:01 – US using the UN for cover, not real action
27:15 – US debt crisis emerging as a long-term threat
28:44 – Concern over the rising level of political hatred
30:35 – The US now seen as a flawed model of democracy
32:00 – China’s transactional influence without global leadership
34:02 – US–China relationship more frenemies than rivals
37:05 – Technology as the only truly internationalist force
38:50 – US, Europe, and China all facing internal crises
40:51 – Escalation risk rising across the Middle East
44:31 – Palestinian issue cannot be solved with money alone
48:02 – The end of the globalist consensus
49:03 – Climate change is the lone area where multilateralism works
52:12 – Netanyahu’s weakness threatens regional stability
55:51 – The 2024 election will define US foreign policy
58:59 – Trump’s first foreign-policy success: the Abraham Accords

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings -one of the more common frauds of the modern era.

Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment.

Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By my estimates they will understate depreciation by $176 billion 2026-2028.

By 2028, ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, META by 20.8%, etc. But it gets worse. More detail coming November 25th. Stay tuned.

[Curia Financial @curiafinancial]

Curia Investment Show #6: Tesla & Elon Musk, Congress & Trump Tariffs, Job Losses
https://t.co/SeoZaHt26I

#ElonMusk #Tesla #StockMarket #Trump #DonaldTrump #Tariffs #tariffwar #UnemploymentRate #Unemployment

[Melody Wright @m3_melody]

“Breathtaking” fraud and contagion in Auto spreads…oopsie Carvana!

Meanwhile in mortgage, delinquency on the rise with foreclosures showing a banger of an increase YOY and MOM

And, what surprisingly strong September home sales tell us about what’s next

https://t.co/Csxerjh50h

[The Crude Chronicles 🛢 @crudechronicle]

@DanielYergin was recently on the Odd Lots podcast with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart.

A great listen as usual. Around the 20 minute mark Mr Yergin discusses the 5 prior cycles/periods of "Peak Oil" worries

I have read Yergin's book several times. So much that my original version has the pages coming off the spine. I keep it because one day I hope to have him sign it.

Anyways his book was the inspiration behind the following graphic. My interpretation is that we are now in the 6th cycle and each cycle carries with it 6 stages.

It is nice to hear him discuss things very similar to this.

[The Accountant @TheAccountcaz]

This will be my final post on the private credit/syndicated loan topic; I've written about it from every angle I can think of in a series of posts. I realize much of this is simply too overwhelming to comprehend & appreciate, especially the magnitude at which this exists.

There are 19k PE firms, and 14k McDonald's in the US. The PE term is so broad that there isn't a single, accurate definition, because they all engage in unique deals. However, this business is fully entrenched in every sector of the United States, both public and private.

From your local waste management company to the largest mega-cap blue-chip - they're all tied together in some way, shape, or form by these companies.

The “BDC” seems to be the keyword of the hour. Still, the difference between them and PE/PC/PREF and the final boss, Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs), is essentially defined by their leverage multiple & allocation mechanics. To properly lay this out in detail, you would need to write a book, which there are many, but social platforms need to be < 35 characters and/or a meme pic; otherwise, you’ve lost the audience.

If anyone out there has the SM acumen to condense this information so it’s comprehensible, please take it, rewrite it, and make it your own. I do not seek credit or any social media bs – this account will be dead next week and left for historical archiving only. I will lay these out inverse depth-wise, so that one breaks down some of the barriers in the next:

Overview of markets:
https://t.co/9AcefllFfr

A Q&A thread, attempting to answer some specific questions:
https://t.co/S7Vg1PIfxw

Finally, a detailed breakdown (with cited public research), to address the common misconceptions I see being thrown around:
https://t.co/gzzsAF2fts

I don’t think there’s anything left for me to add here. I am also not entirely sure it’s already too late, thus continued contributions are pointless.

If nothing else, maybe someone will find this after the fallout, and it’ll help bridge some gaps in what was blatantly in our face all along. I hope this doesn’t go the way I think it will. Regardless, thank you to the people who have made my short time on SM tolerable. If I’ve directly engaged with you, know who you are, and have found you to be amazing & insightful – these people offset the otherwise intolerable aspects of this platform (which is ~95%+).

I’ll randomly check messages/replies for a few days to wrap up any final questions. Thanks again & take care of yourselves, everyone.

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

5/ While it's a complicated LOOKING formula, implied correlation is the value p that solves the following equation:

[Thomas Chua @SteadyCompound]

Celebrating 35 years of investment wisdom from Howard Marks!

Oaktree Capital has compiled all of Howard Marks' legendary memos into one complete collection.

A must-read for anyone interested in thoughtful, long-term investing:

https://t.co/M8JZg82gnw