Josh Koh

#Bitcoin • Stocks Investor • Crypto Investor/Trader • Not Financial Advice

[Josh Koh @JoshKoh21]

BTC Long Term View

Log Fib Extension based on correction of each bear market cycle

This is why I think a Long Term TP around end of 2021 will be between 204,500 to 265,450 USD if past cycle is repeated without any external fundamental catalyst (ex: Hyper Inflation)

[Rekt Capital @rektcapital]

#BTC

4 Phases of The Bitcoin Halving

1. Pre-Halving Rally

Approximately 42 days remain until the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024

And ~60 days before the Halving, a Pre-Halving rally tends to occur (light blue)

History has repeated in this respect

Now, Bitcoin is approximately halfway through its Pre-Halving Rally phase

In anticipation of the Halving, investors "Buy the Hype" in an effort to "Sell the News"

Short-term traders and speculators "Buy The Hype" several weeks before the Halving in anticipation of making a profit from this hype-fuelled rally

Then these speculators "Sell The News" to realise that profit, contributing to a Pre-Halving retrace which occurs only a handful of weeks before the Halving event itself

2. Final Pre-Halving Retrace

After the Pre-Halving Rally has concluded...

A Pre-Halving retrace tends to occur a few weeks before the Halving event itself (dark blue circle)

In 2016, this Pre-Halving retrace was -38% deep

In 2020, this Pre-Halving retrace was -20% deep

This Pre-Halving retrace can last multiple weeks and up to 77 days

3. Post-Halving Re-Accumulation

The Pre-Halving retrace is followed by multi-month re-accumulation (red)

This period can last up to 150 days (i.e 5 months)

Many investors get shaken-out in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with lack of major results in their BTC investment in the immediate aftermath of the Halving

4. Post-Halving Parabolic Uptrend

Once Bitcoin breaks out from the re-accumulation area breakout into the parabolic uptrend (green)

It is during this phase Bitcoin experiences accelerated growth on its way to new All Time Highs

This phase tend to last just over a year (~385 days)

$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

It's a bold claim to say "this time is different" for #Bitcoin.

To do that, you're betting against 3, going on 4 cycles of the same.

Everything you've seen so far, including the launch of ETFs have played right into the cycle.

Remember when they told you that ETF's were supposed to launch Bitcoin to new ATHs instantly?

Instead, the launch of ETFs marked the exact day of the local high.

"This time is different" fools you every single cycle, the same villain wearing a different mask.

Sideways period scheduled to start soon after the completion of the correction, lasting about 4 months until the second early top in June 2024 (purple dot)

New ATHs after November 28th, 2024.

Cycle Top +/- 21 days from November 28th, 2025.

[Chicken Genius @chickengenius]

My portfolio still up big. No leverage. Just Chill.

Here’s a message for those who wanna make it. I’ve been doing this over 10 years. The markets have only 1 job. To shake you out. It's the biggest PvP arena. You think you are smarter than the big money?

I understand it can be hard to swallow at times, that's why I keep telling you guys to be comfortable with uncertainty and volatility. Until you do that, you will not make it. I went as far to doxxing myself showing one of my wallets to calm you down. Think about my real net worth, everyday I either lose a house or gain a house. Most people would puke their guts out.

It's extremely clear we are in a bull market. That's all you need to know. Money printers are on. The two biggest central bank in the world, PBoC and FED are printing and will print more. Big boys do not have the power to "out do" the central banks. This chart highlights Policy Bias with a 15 month lead. Printers will start. Chill.

We will be going UP this year. Maybe #btc at 70K? 100K? I don't know, but it's UP. Until I sound the alarm, you do not need to worry. All you need to do is, no leverage, don't emotional trade, don't be greedy. You will be fine. I'll guide you until the end of this bull market.

[岛 @Ni_luvya]

「人为什么要熬夜？为什么一边熬夜后悔愧疚，一边又报复性熬夜」

熬夜的原因有很多种，比如寻求心理补偿，当白天过得不满足，便总想在夜里得到补偿，通过报复性熬夜掌控自己的时间，夺回对生活的控制。
当人们因生理或心理问题感到受挫，便会不自觉用其他方式（或在其他领域）来弥补这种缺憾，缓解焦虑，减轻内心不安。

大多996的人误以为租用睡眠时间可以获取自己本该拥有的自由时光，但熬夜过后又生不如死，恶性循环。

熬夜其实不只是应该提前几点睡的问题，而是在自己的生活结构和身心层面优化出一个结果，并保持稳定。

而早起不只是一个行为，更是对生活的全面掌控。

[@洞見.新视界 @Dong_J369]

高手的终极重器：
培养自己深刻思考的能力！

注意，刷到这篇文章的推友，请给自己7-10分钟的时间耐心看下去。

要培养深度思考的习惯，前提是深度阅读。相信我，耐心看完，一定会让你不断通近真理。

首先来回想一个镜头，在电影《三傻大闹宝莱坞》里，院长拿出一支笔，说这是科学家花费数百万研发出的，在任何角度、任何温度，甚至在零重力的情况下都可以书写。

这时兰彻举手提了一个问题:「如果钢笔在外太空没用，宇航员为什么不用铅笔呢，这样就能省下数百万啊」。

其他同学都把院长的话当成权威，而兰彻却敢于质疑，独立思考，并提出自己的见解。

虽然电影后面提到兰彻的想法是错误的，但这也是深度思考的体现。

如果没有深度的思考���我们就���法发现问题，也很难意识到自己的错误，最后的结果就是人云亦云。

而兰彻拥养成了深度思考的习惯，不断发现问题，解决问题，最终成为知名的科学家。

那么，我们该怎么做才能培养深度思考的习惯呢?

一个人的思考，需要经历以下几个步骤:

接收信息--分析判断--给出结论

这就是一个人思考的过程，下面，我将用一套简单的方法，教会你如何深度思考，逐渐看到一件事的本质。

一、接收信息

我们每天都会接收数以亿计的信息，其中有些信息价值较高，能不断提升我们的眼界和能力，而有些信息毫无营养，纯粹是消耗你宝贵的时间，还有些信息欺骗性较强，会让你的人身和财产蒙受损失。

大多数人都清楚深度思考的重要性，却忽略了信息的有效性。

长期接收低质、无效的信息，会有什么后���呢?

1、容易形成偏见以及错误的观念。

人们因为接收不完整的信息，很容易产生一些偏见。

再比如说，有些国家的人，由于媒体传播的低质信息，使得他们到现在还认为自己国家还在很繁荣富贵的盛世！

2、你的思考能力一步步下降。

长期接触低质无效的信息，你大脑里存储的「背景知识」就非常少。

啥是背景知识呢?

就是指你大脑里的一些概念、观点以及方法论，这是你解决问题、做出决策的重要依据。

背景知识丰富的人，认知水平也高，大脑里形成了很多解决问题的路径，因此能够又好又快的搞定一件事。

而背景知识稀少的人，很难看清一件事，遇到问题就懵逼，很容易被一些观点带偏。

比如有些自媒体文章对年轻人说，年轻的时候就应该好好享受，别让自己的青春成为遗憾。

精致的猪猪女孩怎么能没有一整套口红色号:英俊的年轻朋克没有几双AJ还像话吗：你不肯花钱宠爱自己的样子，真的很丑。

说完这些，后面扔出一个购物链接。

很明显，这是消费主义的陷阱，但有些人却看不穿。

你看，长期接收低质无效的信息，你就无法进行有效的思考，很容易被一些观点洗脑。

因此，在「接收信息」这一步，一定要把好关，将那些低质的、无效的信息挡在门外。

具体该怎么做呢?

第一，远离那些低质量的信息。

追剧、刷抖音、玩游戏、看小说，这些事尽量少做，除了会让你上瘾，还会消耗你大量的时间，你根本没有多余的时间用来自我提升。

第二，多看一些有深度的书籍、电影、纪录片。

看一些质量高的书籍、电影、纪录片，可以提升你的眼界和背景知识。

第三，多接触一些优秀的人。

优秀的人之所以优秀，是因为他们身上的一些观点���习惯，非常值得我们学习。

这对你是绝对有帮助的，而且我认为这比着书更有效。

我经常会和一些大佬交流学习，从中受益匪浅，改掉了很多我不曾意识到的思维问题。

养成深度思考的习惯，一定要确保信息的有效性，那些低质量的信息，不仅会让你产生偏见，还会让你的思考能力一步步丧失。

看到这里的同学，还是愿意深度阅读的，点个赞，鼓励一下自己吧。

二、分析判断

当你接收一个信息之后，就开始进入大脑，进行分析判断。

1、链接背景知识

大脑思考的时候，首先从背景知识库里提取相关的知识，进行分析比对。

你可以理解为，从一堆钥匙里找出能开锁的那把。

不知道你有没有遇到这种情况，你问某些牛人问题，他很快就能回答你，而且他的建议非常有效。

因为他大脑里存储了很多背景知识，你问的问题在他心里预演了很多遍，所以能够快速解决。

这里���次强调了背景知识的重要性，假如你提取不出相关的背景知识，大脑就一片空���,无法进行思考，更别提做出决策了。

2、寻根溯源

一个信息传播到你这时，很可能并不是第一手信息，在你前面还有很多人接收过。

由于每个人的思维方式不同，信息在传播过程中，有可能失真。

也就是说，一条真实的信息，经多人之口，就变成谣言，反过来也成立，一条谣言，传播的人多了，就会有人相信。

因此，为了避免被误导，就要寻根溯源，搞清楚信息是如何产生的，为什么会形成这个观点。

这是非常重要的。

二战时期，英国空军的后勤部门用骆驼粪来给战机座椅做保养，但骆驼粪数量短缺，有些战机不能及时得到保养，因此让英国空军头疼不已。

有一次，一位老兵探望在后勤部工作的儿子，看见儿子正用骆驼粪给座椅做保养，便问道:「你们怎么还在用骆驼粪擦拭皮革?」

儿子回答:「我们一直如此」。

老兵说到:「当年我们在���非的沙漠地区作战，需要用骆驼运输物资，部队中很多皮具是用牛皮做的，骆驼闻到味道就会赖着不走，所以就用骆驼粪来擦拭皮具，掩盖牛皮的气味，没想到30年后却被用到飞机上，真是太可笑了。」

我们经常听到有人说，「别人都是这么做的」，「一直以来都是这样的啊」，这种依赖过去经验的做法，在心理学上，叫做「路径依赖」。

假如不清楚这样做的原因，只会机械般的执行，就很容易弄巧成拙。

如何解决这个问题呢?

用5why 分析法，不断追问原因。

比如说，我们想知道用户使用社交软件的根本原因。

(1)他为什么需要使用社交软件?为了接收和发送信息。

(2)为什么要接收和发送信息?为了分享并即时获取信息。

(3)为什么要分享和获取信息?为了了解同事，朋友和家人的生活。

(4)为什么要了解别人的生活?为了知道自己是否被人所需要。

(5)为什么知道自己是否被被人需要?因为他害怕被圈子抛弃。

最后，我们知道了，用户使用社交软件的真正原因是恐惧心理，害怕被人抛弃。

通过5why法，不断追问原因，直至找到问题的本质。

3、演绎推理

现在网络上有一些奇怪的观点:

讨论某个演员的演技，有人说，「你说他演技不好，你行你上啊」。 看到某个女生被色狼侵犯的新闻，又有人说，「穿的这么暴露，不找你找谁?」

这类神逻辑在网络上实在太多了。

对于很多神逻辑，都可以运用演绎推理一一击破，最典型的就是「三段论」。

「三段论」包含一个隐藏的大前提，一个附属于大前提的小前提，以及由此引申出来的结论。

比如这句神逻辑:

穿的这么暴露，不找你找谁?

用三段论来拆解：

隐藏的大前提:被侵犯的人，一定有不对的地方小前提:这个女生被色狼侵犯了结论:她一定有不对的地方(穿着暴露)

你看，用三段论一拆解，就能发现那个隐藏的大前提有明显的逻辑漏洞:被别人侵犯,自己就一定有不对的地方?

wtf,穿着暴露也是一种罪?这是什么逻辑啊?

下次，你在网络上遇到这类神逻辑,我建议你摘抄下来,就能发现他们大脑里内置的「神逻辑」。

4、批判性分析

这里介绍一个概念,叫思维定式。

思维定式指你看待世界的方法,包括你感知、理解、诠释这个世界的方式,它根植于你的内心深处。最关键的是，它没有对错,只是你做出的一种假设!

也就足说,你认为正确的东西，在别人看来不一定正确。

因为你们的思维定式不一样看到的世界不同,结论也有可能不一样。

最典型的就是电视剧里那句[终于开始了长达八年的抗战。

这里，我们不去讨论「抗战定14年」，单纯从这句话出友 来分析一下问题。

有些人说，「战争才开始,你怎么就知道打了八年，导演水平太低了」。

这句话真的有问题吗?

不一定,需要分情况。

如果是站在剧中人物的角度看,这句话就有问题,因为谁也不知道战争要打多久。

���假如是从历史进��的角度来看呢,后面的历史是如何发展的，你全都知道，所以这么说没毛病。

你看，每个人思维定式不一样，从不同角度看待同一件事,就会有不同的结果。

因此，遇到不同的观点，不要习惯性的反驳，多想想对方为什么会得出这个观点。

学会从不同的角度思考，这样才能拓宽自己的思维。

三、给出结论

看到某个问题经过思考，你给出了自己的结果、观点。

正如我前面所说，你的结论是在当前的思维定式下产生的是一种假设，并不是100%正确的。

因此,要不断的去认识这个世界，扩大格局和眼界兰你的思考能力和认知水平获得提升治，你很有可能改变当初的看法。

四、最后的话

在这个信息爆炸的社会,我们每天都会接触大量的信息，其中有些具有很强的隐蔽性和欺骗性。

假如看待问题总是浮于表面,就很容易被别人牵着鼻子走。

相信你并不���望这种情况发生。

最后，再给你分享一句话:

在一秒钟内看到本质的人，和花半辈子也看不清一件事本质的人,自然是不一样的命运。

如果对你有启发的话，点赞收藏一下，让我了解有多少推友正在逼近真理的道路上。

[岛 @Ni_luvya]

「真正的冥想，正确的冥想练习」

1/ 冥想不是一种行动：
它不是要加在你的todo list，是感知做��吸觉知和身体扫描，而非一个新的待办事项，所以没有固定方法

2/ 冥想并非一定要在安静环境：
当你坐下来准备冥想时，总希望安静不被打扰。当你还在抱怨周围嘈杂，就还没进入真正的冥想，真正的冥想是无论发生什么都把它融入，并且臣服于它，噪声只是流经你不受影响。
但初期冥想练习仍建议选在宁静舒适的环境和姿势中进行，效果更好。

3/练习冥想的方式
可以通过专门的音乐、音频指导、课程进行疗愈，熟练者也可以什么都不借助直接进入冥想状态。目前多数以“观呼吸、身体扫描”的方式进行

4/ 冥想的好处：
正念练习可以提升睡眠质量、专注注意力、缓解压力和焦虑，提升自我觉察能力

5/其他推荐：
埃克哈特·托利，主要研究灵性觉醒，油管有他带领的10分钟冥想和很多方法引导视频；
《当下的力量》是埃克哈特·托利所著，心灵读物经典。（另外国内德宝法师的《观呼吸》听说很灵，法师太灵了我怕驾驭不了还没读过- -
Keep和网易云都有冥想音频，油管和B站有引导音频或AMSR，找到自己适合的最好；
线下有冥想体验如颂钵。朋友最新泰国疗愈回来反馈是如果早点去能少走很多弯路
（远离学霸猫🥲人人有责！

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

Life is simple.

Fix your body:
fast, exercise, water, ketone, sun, relax

Fix your mind:
fast, read, write, be mindful, grateful

Fix your finances:
learn, save, invest, create value, sell

Fix your relationships:
trust, give, smile, be honest, respectful

Anxiety is now gone.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

#Bitcoin is doing what it always does

2011: ⬆️
2012: ⬆️
2013: ⬆️
2014: ⬇️🔻
2015: ⬆️
2016: ⬆️
2017: ⬆️
2018: ⬇️🔻
2019: ⬆️
2020:⬆️
2021: ⬆️
2022: ⬇️🔻
2023: ⬆️
2024: Any guesses? See a pattern?

Play the LONG game! #BTC   Eats and then it Digest, then Eats again!

Rinse & Repeat

[CryptoSoulz @SoulzBTC]

In this THREAD I will explain ICT BASIC CONCEPTS:

1. Liquidity
2. Displacement
3. Market Structure Shift
4. Inducement

🧵(1/7)

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

Are you feeling underexposed?

Don't worry, this current rally is nothing compared to what happens during peak bull.

But if you haven't made a plan yet, now's the time to make sure you have one in place.

🧵: Here's a simple 5-step roadmap to make it in the bull run.👇

[行間@C108 2日目 西1ね-27ab @gyoukan000]

かつて辿った道を征く

#フリーレンFA

[Koroush AK @KoroushAK]

We're on the verge of another face melting bull market.

Technical analysis has helped me reach financial freedom in crypto bull markets.

It took me 5 years to learn and I will teach it to you in 5 minutes.

Please, read this guide if you plan on trading.

Disclaimer: I've simplified concepts to teach you technical analysis quickly.

For a free detailed trading course check out my telegram (link in bio)

Step 1: Understand the Trend

I'm going to teach you to read market structure + trend.

Moving averages are the easiest tool for this.

Set up Tradingview

Lower Time Frame: 7ma
Medium Time Frame: 30ma
High Time Frame: 100ma

Use MAs to identify the trend.

If you are using the free version and have limited indicators search for an indicator called "3ma" and put your settings like this.

Trend Cheat Sheet 1

Uptrend: All MAs fan out with 7ma at top and 100ma at the bottom

Neutral-Uptrend: 7ma & 30ma crossing with 100ma at bottom

Neutral Trend: All MAs crossing

Neutral-Downtrend: 7ma and 30ma crossing with 100ma at top

Downtrend: All MAs fan out with 7ma at bottom and 100ma at top

Trend Cheat Sheet 2

Uptrend: Support is stronger and resistance is weaker

Neutral-Uptrend: Support is stronger

Neutral: Support and Resistance are equally strong

Neutral-Downtrend: Resistance is stronger

Downtrend: Resistance is stronger and support is weaker

Step 2: Identify Key Levels

For this, you need support and resistance.

Support: An area where there is demand for an asset. People buy here usually.

Resistance: An area where there is supply for an asset. People sell here usually.

Key levels can;

Hold: Buyers keep price above support. Sellers keep price below resistance.

Break: Buyers fail to keep price above support. Sellers fail to keep price below resistance.

Trap: Buyers/sellers fail to keep price above/below support/resistance temporarily.

How to find support and resistance.

1. Round numbers are likely to act as key levels

2. If a level holds as support/resistance more than twice mark it

3. Support breaks it turns into resistance, if resistance breaks it turns into support

Look how well just the key round numbers work on $BTC

Step 3: Put it all together

1 - Identify key levels and trend

2- Apply all the rules and cheat sheets you've gotten today to perform you analysis.

And that's minimum viable technical analysis.

If you want to dive deeper and make the most of the next bull market.

Next learn learn risk management, strategy development and trade journaling.

Good luck.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

Life is simple.

Fix your body:
fast, exercise, water, ketone, sun, relax

Fix your mind:
fast, read, write, be mindful, grateful

Fix your finances:
learn, save, invest, create value, sell

Fix your relationships:
trust, give, smile, be honest, respectful

Anxiety is now gone.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

#BTC

You can tell that almost everyone missed the entire move up this year b/c they talk about #2023 being a Bear market for #Bitcoin

Meanwhile, #BTC is currently up 71% on the year! They missed it all, so it didn't happen; this is the way of the LARP & the fake TA guys that show you BS charts daily.

In December, when #BTC was at $16k, I said we would see $31.7K this year. I also made an hour-long video explaining it.

However, this isn't about me. This is about helping YOU understand that you are being led to believe nonsense daily.

Draw a chart to ATH's, and you get 1000+ likes guaranteed. Draw out a scenario that happens exactly as you called it, and you'll never see anything close to that. It is all completely backward, and all it does is cost people money b/c they believe the bs'ers.

The most interesting part is that the bs'ers never get punished for it. They can be dead wrong 90% of the time and grow this crazy cult-like following that defends them to no end.

In fact, when I made the call for $31.7K (the exact top by the way) at $16k, a guy whose name was actually "CAP" (you couldn't make that up) told me I was wrong, and I publicly explained why I disagreed. Then, as Bitcoin began to climb, he started moving the goalposts, and I called him out for it. But, I only bring it up b/c of what happened next, not only did his army come after me, but SO MANY large accounts that many people find credible attacked me as well, claiming that I was attacking him, blocking me, calling me names, and telling me he could still end up being right and all kinds of other BS.

It was hilarious b/c the only thing I said to the guy was, you were wrong; admit you were wrong, and you'll be fine. Why? Because we are all wrong at times.

Why explain all this? Because it is up to you to pay attention to results. Stop thinking a guy with 50K, 100K, 200k, 500k, or a million followers KNOWS anything just b/c they have a big following. In reality, the opposite is typically true. Look for substance; substance is not a giant up or down arrow, nor is it reading something you agree with. Nor is it some magical-looking chart that has a price prediction based on a curved line or a 3-week chart (epically dumb btw) or a bunch of squiggly lines showing up or down options where no matter what happens, they were right.

If you follow people and support them, make sure they truly bring you value that helps YOU improve YOUR trading.

Good luck!

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

Everyone should find three hobbies:

-One that works towards making you rich

-One that works towards making you fit

-One that works towards making you smart

What are yours?

[Chicken Genius @chickengenius]

Congrats, $100 yours. This answer comes closest. I'll DM you.

Question was:
What is the one main similarity between CEX listing and Futures listing and why? This applies to both tradfi and crypto.

Why this question?
To save you pain. DUH.

99% of the time, when CEX listings or Futures listing. Price dumps. From IPOs to Commodity ( Gas, Gold, Soya beans ) Futures, you become the exit liquidity.

IPOs are obvious. Futures is betting on the underlying asset WITHOUT the asset as settlement resulting in stupid swings. Oil price went negative during covid. Remember?

These moments are BEARISH moments. Don't RETAIL FOMO. Wait for price to settle. While most answers are right to a certain degree. Increases liquidity and some technical terms, good work BUT what I’m teaching you is this:

These are the facts, easy to google. SO WHAT? Everyone with a brain can google. What’s actionable?

Hope you learn something. Cheers.

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

In this video, the World's Economic Systems are explained in a way that a child can understand.

Take notes!

[Koroush AK @KoroushAK]

I'm 28, reached financial freedom at 26 and attribute most my success to continual learning.

These are the books that have impacted me most.

1. Essentialism by Greg Mckeown
2. The Changing World Order by Ray Dalio
3. The One Thing by Gary Keller, Jay Papasan
4. The Mind Illuminated by John Yates
5. Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System by Satoshi Nakamoto
6. Mindfulness, Bliss, and Beyond by Ajahn Brahm
7. The Status Game: On Human Life and How to Play It by Will Storr
8. Can't Hurt Me by David Goggins
9. Meditations by Marcus Aurelius
10. Man's Search for Meaning by Viktor E. Frankly
11. Dorian Grey by Oscar Wilde
12. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Taleb
13. How to Win Friends & Influence People by Dale Carnegie

All this knowledge is useless without action.

Learn, apply, repeat.

I'll share my favorite trading specific books on my telegram tomorrow, link in bio --> @KoroushAK

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

Making too many decisions in Crypto is exhausting.

I started making more money once I learned about Systems Thinking.

Here's your playbook for creating Systems in Crypto:

(plus it stops emotions from killing your gains!)