Josh Rogin

The Cable on Substack Global Security Analyst, Washington Post
Author, Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi & the Battle for the 21st Century

[Josh Rogin @joshrogin]

Read my new Washington Post Intelligence report with a free gift link:

The next phase in the U.S.-China economic war is here

https://t.co/iG0bDt1hFW

[Chris McGuire @ChrisRMcGuire]

This is bad, especially bc we’ve also stopped enforcing export controls that slow China down in AI. Export controls expand our lead, which buys us time to determine how to properly regulate AI without surrendering US leadership. Allowing China to catch up while also creating regulatory uncertainty is very dangerous. This is how we lose.

[Aaron Parnas @AaronParnas]

NEW: Senator @MarkWarner tells me that Acting DNI Bill Pulte sought to take home the Presidential Daily Briefing, one of the most classified documents in the country, and, on one of his first days, asked whether he can have a private jet.

[محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf @mb_ghalibaf]

America falsely claims our unfrozen assets will buy their agriculture. Interesting. The only crop we're harvesting is what you planted: decades of mistrust. It's organic, abundant, and homegrown. But apparently the US only exports GMO soybeans, broken promises and trash talks.

[Margaret Brennan @margbrennan]

EXCLUSIVE: As Senator Cassidy explains it, the Vice President & Envoy Witkoff believe the Iran diplomacy is so delicate & needs to be nursed along in such a way that public hearings/briefings on the Iran war would be potentially disruptive. He said space is needed for an "accommodation" to be reached. Senator Cassidy told me he was the only Senator in the SitRoom on Wednesday night with Vance, Witkoff & Trump admin staff. Our interview Sunday on @FaceTheNation

[Bill Bishop @niubi]

And now Apple will lobby even harder to be allowed to use PRC suppliers to undercut everyone else…https://t.co/6er8ICzwMp

[Christian Shepherd @cdcshepherd]

"The people who are best positioned to engage with Americans often don’t hold real power within the system, and those with real power within the system often don’t have the experience or inclination to engage externally."

[Yaqiu Wang 王亚秋 @Yaqiu]

At @DW_GMF, I said Americans are unhappy with social media companies, and AI companies are already unpopular. Tech executives should take that seriously and cooperate on smart regulation rather than resist it, lest they provoke a major backlash.

[Reinhard Bütikofer @bueti]

Very clear logic, isn't it? If EU in order to protect its own industrial future will try to "defend its legitimate interests" by reciprocally taking measures which China has taken long ago, Beijing will counteract, because "quod licet Iovi non licet bovi" as a Roman adage goes.

[Chung Ching Kwong 鄺頌晴 @chungchingkwong]

The genius of United Front work: it's designed so operatives never feel like pawns. No one gets asked to 'spy'. Instead, they use hometown sentiment, honorary titles, business networks...

Participants can deny it in good faith. But ignorance doesn't cancel influence. Their credibility and access to British institutions have already been put to use.

That's why FIRS registration isn't accusation, it's transparency.

Very happy to be able to contribute to this story.

[Henry Gao @henrysgao]

China is reportedly considering turning the Great Firewall into a two-way barrier by blocking overseas traffic to Chinese websites. If fully implemented, this could effectively transform the internet in China into a giant intranet, where the only way to access critical data from government agencies, universities, and companies may be to physically go to China.

This further reinforces a point I have been making for some time: the urgent need for China experts in the West to strengthen their ability to read between the lines of official propaganda and uncover the realities hidden behind the official narrative.

[Status-6 (War & Military News) @Archer83Able]

REPORTER: Russia is accusing the US of failing to deliver on agreements, understanding that we had in Alaska...

US SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO: There was no agreement in Alaska. There was a proposal in Alaska, but there was no agreement in Alaska. If there had been an agreement, we would have had an end of the war.

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

A ship has been attacked on the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz, following Iranian warnings that the strait was closed.

[U.S. Asia Pacific Media Hub @eAsiaMediaHub]

The United States has repeatedly asked China to lift the arbitrary and targeted visa requirements it imposes on official U.S. government travelers to Macau providing emergency consular services to U.S. citizens. As a matter of principle, the United States will not send high-level participants to a Ministerial promoting tourism in a location where U.S. diplomats cannot provide emergency services to U.S. tourists in need.

Read more: https://t.co/uzXwoE1tT5

[Jojje Olsson @jojjeols]

"China has been contacting U.S. states and private firms to discourage engagement with Taiwan and mischaracterising U.S. policy, ​but links with Taiwan should be expanded, three U.S. government departments ‌said in joint letters."

[Select Committee on China @ChinaSelect]

For far too long, a China-linked espionage group has been quietly stealing sensitive information in America’s academic, medical, and military research communities. Protecting our nation’s research from our adversaries is crucial and we must be vigilant against cybersecurity threats. Business, governments, and universities must do more to protect vital research.
https://t.co/n9ydxctnHM

[Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 @BonnieGlaser]

Dutch semiconductor firms ASML & NXP will join Dutch Trade Minister Sjoerdsma on trip to China in early July. The executives agreed to join on the condition that Sjoerdsma would refrain from raising human rights issues or arms sales to Taiwan, according to SCMP
https://t.co/BAaXSbVU3v

[Dan Lamothe @DanLamothe]

NEW: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stonewalled a behind-the-scenes effort within the Army and on Capitol Hill to extend the career of Gen. Chris Donahue people familiar with the matter said, leading to that officer submitting retirement paperwork and preparing to step down.

[John Hudson @John_Hudson]

extraordinary detail on the Trump-Bibi relationship by @maggieNYT and @jonathanvswan in their new book. "Epic" might be an understatement:

[Chris McGuire @ChrisRMcGuire]

Will be interesting to see how much teeth this bill has. Commerce absolutely should take such action, it shouldn’t have to be compelled to do so.

Also, somehow I don’t think Alibaba is going to win their lawsuit to reverse their designation as a Chinese Military Company…

[Michael Sobolik @michaelsobolik]

Yet another important report from @StrategyRisks — this one about how @MissouriState reportedly used taxpayer $$ to credential CCP officials in state-owned enterprises, including those designated as national security threats (AVIC) and engaged in human rights violations (iFLYTEK)

Expect this report to start another round of conversations in DC about the nature of higher education cooperation with China…