"If it bothers you that China is winning, then just cut the defense budget by $1 trillion and put the money into innovation." @joequant https://t.co/tYxASIDLo3
There's a pervasive belief that we no longer produce clothes in the United States. This is not true. In this thread, I will tell you about some great made-in-USA brands — some that run their own factories, while others are US brands contracting with US factories. 🧵
Germany’s economy and society face four distinct Merkel-era pathologies which, if pursued to their logical conclusion, will return the country to its 1990s role as the sick man of Europe.
(a) The Energiewende. Its core legally binding framework is the so-called Netzentwicklungsplan 2035, reinforced by secondary legislation such as the Heizgesetz. The plan effectively abandons all baseload power sources except gas turbines and replaces them with wind and solar, a configuration incompatible with physical reality. The result is unambiguous. German electricity costs are already among the highest in Europe and will remain so, requiring ever-increasing state subsidies to prevent industrial shutdowns. Anyone in doubt should study the Bundeshaushalt.
(b) The Chinese divorce. This entails a structural collapse in net exports to China across machinery, autos and chemicals. At the same time, capital repatriation from flagship firms such as VW, BMW and Bayer is deteriorating, driven by weak Chinese domestic demand for locally produced goods and intensifying domestic competition stemming from economy-wide overcapacity. Germany is losing exports, profits and strategic leverage simultaneously.
(c) Infrastructure decay. Roads, bridges, airports, military equipment, the Bundeswehr, Deutsche Bahn, schools and public capital stock more broadly have been run down for two decades. Despite record tax revenues, Merkel prioritised emptying state coffers to buy political loyalty during successive socialist coalitions with the SPD and the Greens, rather than keeping the house in order. The Merz government is now tapping Europe’s last credible balance sheet, with debt-to-GDP at 60%, to reverse some of this decay, while preparing for the reality that renewed confrontation with the Kremlin is inevitable. How this unfolds remains to be seen.
(d) Uncontrolled, politically incentivised mass migration, primarily from Syria, the Maghreb, Morocco and Afghanistan. This imposes rising Bürgergeld costs on taxpayers while delivering negligible labour market participation in return. The outcome is escalating social fragmentation, rising Muslim violent crime and accelerating urban decay.
Points (a) and (b) are uniquely German.
A is 100% fixable if the German electorate applies rational thinking for five uninterrupted minutes. Addressing it is non-negotiable. The so-called Green Shift requires a 100% reversal which @_FriedrichMerz 100% certain can enforce with @vonderleyen. Carbon taxes, combustion-engine bans and related policy madness are neither affordable, executable nor effective. All relevant parties, CDU, CSU, AfD and SPD, know this perfectly well once they examine global carbon emission data. What they lack is the courage to admit publicly that their prior assessment was wrong.
B is not fixable by Germany. The CCP has always been, and remains, on a collision course with the West and will deploy 100% of its leverage to force exports into Europe, while escalating pressure through chokepoints such as restrictions on critical metals. This will translate into material unemployment. Full stop.
C must be addressed decisively and must generate real economic returns. Failure to do so locks in decay for one or two generations. Declining tax revenues will then make remediation impossible, pushing Germany into the same interest-rate trap as the United States and Japan, but without monetary sovereignty to monetise it. The tail risk is a German exit from the Eurozone, followed by an air-pocket in European GDP.
D is the dominant political issue across the West for ordinary voters and the principal reason the AfD is on track to produce the next chancellor. It is also a severe security risk. When sustained Muslim violence collides with rising European unemployment, the result will be civil-war-type scenes on European streets. This outcome is inevitable. Tolerance for the intolerant has effectively ended, not only in Germany but across much of Europe. Merz still lacks the authority to force his coalition partner, SPD, to confront the scale of the problem. By 2030, however, SPD will be politically irrelevant unless the issue is solved. Addressing this issue now would therefore be in its own political self-interest as a party that still claims to represent workers, not illegal Muslim migrants.
The Wall Street Journal addressed point (b) today. It is essential reading. The picture is bleak.
1/2 @_FriedrichMerz@vonderleyen
@LeoAW and I purchased a 1970's era 7UP vending machine and modified it over the last two days to accept only sats over lightning! This is iteration #1.
Thanks to @Colin_Sully for hosting the machine at @MintGreenHQ, and to @dctrlvan for the BEPSI machine code which we forked.
I grew up watching Rick Steves on PBS and he inspired me to travel which changed my life.
I used to agree with Rick’s take on drugs, but legalization has been an abject failure. Once proud American and European cities now smell like dirty socks and are filled with people with mental issues (often caused or exacerbated by drugs) and unsafe for tourists and residents alike.
I’m happy to live in a part of the world where drugs are illegal and drug trafficking is punished by life imprisonment (Hong Kong, Macau) or death (Mainland China, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia).
Rick’s views on drugs and the view of other liberal boomers like Rick (and I say that affectionally because I love Rick’s travel work) are directly responsible for the decline and fall of American and European cities. If you want to learn more I encourage you to read @philippilk ’s new book on “The Collapse of Global Liberalism”
Let me add a few more facts & figures and some high level observations about the United States goods trade deficits with Switzerland of some $20bn annually.
A thread
1/8
I am excited to announce Bitfarms’ Principal Executive Office in New York City and our conversion to U.S. GAAP reporting for Q4. Building off the successful rebalancing of our energy portfolio to ~70% North American MWs in Q1, these initiatives further advance our U.S. pivot and align with our HPC/AI growth strategy. Maintaining a U.S.-based PEO and transitioning to U.S. GAAP is expected to simplify our reporting processes, reduce administrative and legal costs, broaden our U.S. investor base, and improve our eligibility for inclusion in certain stock indices, among other potential benefits. We believe this strategic transition will better position Bitfarms to execute our HPC/AI growth strategy, driving improved operational efficiencies and maximizing shareholder value.
#USA
#USA
#USA
$bitf
@Bitfarms_io
#hpc
#ai
We believe that Bitfarms’ shares are currently undervalued because our Bitcoin business is underappreciated by the market, with little to no value being associated with our HPC potential. This Program demonstrates our confidence in Bitfarms’ business, our management team, and most importantly our high-performance computing data center growth strategy. We strongly believe our unique and highly desirable energy portfolio in Pennsylvania will drive long-term, sustainable growth that is financeable and enables management to leverage its balance sheet strength to drive shareholder value with this buyback program while simultaneously pursuing growth opportunities in HPC/AI to best capitalize on our substantial US energy pipeline.
$bitf
$btc
A property you like hits the market at 10am.
You planned to meet a friend at 10:30am for coffee, and it spills into lunch.
You call the broker at 2pm.
What are you even doing!?
Your lawyer calls to tell you that the lease draft is ready, and he’s happy to review later that day.
It’s Friday, and you don’t see the harm in getting back to him Monday.
Are. You. Being. Serious?!
The painter tells you the crew can start in three weeks, and you don’t even question it.
Why?!
How can you win in the business world if you don’t have a sense of urgency.
Something hits your plate, you take care of it.
Every day you save moves the needle.
That extra hour you sat on the deal is an hour you gave to six of your competitors.
Lacking a sense of urgency is a gift to the competition, and they thank you for it.
If you don’t get this concept, or don’t agree, you’ll get average results. Works great and totally fine, if that’s what you’re after.
@vonderleyen Well, you could drop your tariffs on our cars, if you truly and “deeply” regretted the counter tariffs by Trump.
But you didn’t so reap what you sow vampire queen