Jesus Rangel

Math Olympiad’s guy that studied economics and talks about the finance and energy sectors. For the books I've read:

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: Perhaps the most important story in global markets / geopolitics right now.

China's oil imports plunged to ~6.6m b/d in May, according to @Vortexa data, down ~38% vs 2025 average (or ~4m b/d).

I wrote this @Opinion column in early May: https://t.co/XK71uh81m1

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨 THE AI COST CRISIS HAS STARTED.

Microsoft reportedly told engineers to stop using Claude because AI bills were exploding, while Uber says its entire yearly AI budget was already destroyed by April.

[Jesus Rangel @Jsusran]

This is a huge move after Google nerfed Gemini for all of their paying customers, including the ones with annual subscriptions

[DeepSeek @deepseek_ai]

We are making our discount permanent! 🎉

Enjoy building with DeepSeek-V4-Pro and bring your innovative ideas to life! 🚀

[Kpler @Kpler]

Strait of Hormuz | Vessel Crossings

Confirmed Strait of Hormuz transits rose to 10 on 20 May from four the previous day, while the IRGC Navy stated that 26 vessels were underway following coordination and approval procedures with Iranian authorities. 

Most movements involved commercial west to east traffic, with no new Iranian export loadings observed. Although activity remained broadly low risk, it included two sanctioned vessels and one shadow vessel, while opaque routing patterns picked up d/d. Reports suggest Tehran is preparing a permit based transit framework to present in negotiations, potentially involving vessel vetting, state coordination and safe passage fees.

The emerging structure points to a more formalised IRGC managed clearance regime. Mobility is improving incrementally, but access remains conditional, politically controlled and exposed to rapid disruption.

[Jesus Rangel @Jsusran]

Something may happen, or not

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*TRUMP: MAY HAVE TO HIT IRAN HARDER, MAYBE NOT

[Jesus Rangel @Jsusran]

Billion dollar unicorns are a thing from the past. Trillion dollars unicorns are the new reality.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*ANTHROPIC RECEIVED INVESTMENT OFFERS AT OVER $900B VALUE:WSJ

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

MUST READ: The cost of a real-world oil cargo is dropping fast as buyers back away.

The sharp retreat provides a counterintuitive backdrop to warnings the oil market is barreling toward a crisis point. Still, traders cautioned the calm may be shortlived.
https://t.co/dN2bRQ4GEM

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Aramco just confirmed what the data already showed.
Even if Hormuz opens tomorrow — rebalancing takes months.
And if the closure extends a few more weeks?
Normalization pushed to 2027.
This means:
▸ June → Operational Stress Level (7.6B barrels)
▸ September → Operational Floor (6.8B barrels)
▸ 2027 → earliest possible normalization
The market is not pricing a 2027 recovery timeline.
It’s pricing a quick fix that Aramco just said won’t happen.
This changes everything.

[Variant Perception @VrntPerception]

The bubble isn't where you think it is.

Despite the semi/dot com bubble headlines, we aren't seeing that many LPPL exhaustion signals in Information Technology yet. The latest data actually shows active funds are still underweight tech.

Instead, Utilities are flashing the most aggressive bubble exhaustion signals at present. This looks similar to the LPPL setups in Consumer Staples and Materials back in February—right before they rolled over.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The UAE announces it will be leaving OPEC effective May 1st.

This will officially end the UAE's 59-year membership in the organization.

The Iran War is redefining the global energy industry forever.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

You know Asia is truly short of crude oil when Japanese television covers the arrival of a single oil tanker from America as a major news story

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*ANTHROPIC’S MYTHOS MODEL ACCESSED BY UNAUTHORIZED USERS

[Jesus Rangel @Jsusran]

Stimulating demand on low supply, what could go wrong

[Al Jazeera Breaking News @AJENews]

BREAKING: Germany will reduce energy tax on diesel and petrol by approximately 0.17 euros ($0.20) per litre for two months to cushion the increase in prices due to the war in Iran, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf.

(Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids, so just crude)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: US oil prices surge over +10% to $110/barrel, on track for the highest close since June 2022.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

For the American economy, the key different between the current energy shock and previous ones is the (lack of) impact in US natural gas prices.

That's crucial for industrial activity and electricity prices (and thus inflation). Far less reported than oil, but as significant.

[Jesus Rangel @Jsusran]

Cuban cigars futures about to spike

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW ON THE IRAN SITUATION:

"Cuba is next."

[MarineTraffic @MarineTraffic]

COSCO vessels abort Strait of Hormuz transit attempt amid ongoing instability

Following COSCO’s announcement to resume booking acceptance to Gulf destinations, new developments overnight suggest the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly unstable.

According to #MarineTraffic data, two of its Ultra Large Container Vessels, CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean, attempted to transit the strait but turned back at approximately 03:20 and 03:50 UTC, indicating that safe passage could not be guaranteed. This marks the first attempted crossing by a major container carrier since the start of the conflict.

Both vessels operate on COSCO’s MEX service, part of the Ocean Alliance network linking the Middle East with the Far East. COSCO, a Chinese carrier, is currently the world’s fourth-largest container shipping line by capacity.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

German Energy Minister Katherina Reiche: the nuclear shutdown “was a huge mistake.”

#CERAWeek

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Inflation expectations continue to move higher as input costs rise sharply in March

#MacroEdge