[STRATEGIC BRIEF] I want to emphasize that the AFU's goal in its strike campaign against Crimean infrastructure is not about retaking the peninsula. The primary goal is to generate pressure to reach a ceasefire deal by winter. Ukrainian leadership has already written off Kramatorsk and Sloviansk: the agglomeration is in range of drones and tube artillery, is being evacuated, and is expected to be captured eventually.
The intention in creating a dilemma for Russia in Crimea is to force Moscow to stop there and avoid facing a new offensive in the plains of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, which holds the highest-value remaining mineral resources in Ukraine. Such an offensive would be unprecedented, as open-terrain fortifications with drone defense but limited manpower have not been tested. The risk is high and the consequences could be disastrous.
Fantasy stories about reclaiming Crimea fail to understand that, in the hypothetical scenario where Ukrainian strikes completely disable supply logistics and infrastructure (unlikely, as explained in my analysis) and force Russia to abandon its occupation, an undermanned Ukrainian army could not occupy the same territory with hostile populations, no infrastructure, and without logistics, water, or fuel. They would face the same situation and rapidly become unable to operate. Units would endure similar or worse strikes on supplies and staging areas, which could turn into a real blockade since Russia physically controls every entry point into the peninsula, depending on the status of the land bridge.
The circumstances needed for Russia to abandon the peninsula cannot be met, because, beyond escalation that could defuse the situation, there are simply no forces able to take over. There are no amphibious assets to launch a ground operation, and the state of the AFU does not allow for any significant counteroffensive. Anything remotely threatening would simply trigger another round of mobilization with possibly this time, post stabilisation, a decision by Moscow to end its offensive; resulting ultimately in the above cease fire situation. Generally, the current intent is to secure a ceasefire on a line as close to the rear of Sloviansk/Kramatorsk as possible. This is the current focal point of the war.
Failure to understand this context can lead to misinterpretation of either side's current strategic intentions. Simply put, how could Ukraine hope to reoccupy a Crimean peninsula so damaged that Russia could not sustain its presence there?
#UkraineRussiaWar #Strategy #Crimea