Julio

Kings never die

[glassnode @glassnode]

Waiting for Buyers

$BTC has broken below $60K as loss realization, ETF outflows, and defensive options positioning continue to weigh on sentiment. Despite some selective accumulation, broad demand remains absent.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/LzHmu6D6vj

[glassnode @glassnode]

Bulls Approach the Ceiling

$BTC pushes beyond $80K toward key resistance near $85K, with bulls in control. ETF demand builds and shorts persist, but overhead supply may cap upside without stronger spot follow-through.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/PSFqvQGB8H

[glassnode @glassnode]

🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading at $75.7K, the key on-chain price models are as follows:

🟡 Active Investors Mean: $85.0k
🔴 STH Cost Basis: $78.9K
🟢True Market Mean: $78.0K
---- Spot Price: $75.7K ----
🔵 Realized Price: $54.1K

📊 https://t.co/mJ1JCnjTff

[glassnode @glassnode]

Mean Reclaimed, Rally on Trial

$BTC reclaims $78k as spot demand and ETF inflows return. Shorts build with negative funding, creating squeeze potential. Yet elevated realized profits and soft volatility signal caution, with upside near $80k facing resistance.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/3odwdQgpq3

[glassnode @glassnode]

No Catalyst, No Range Break

$BTC remains rangebound between $60k and $70k as spot demand begins to absorb supply and derivatives reset. Volatility cools, but without a clear catalyst, a sustained breakout remains unlikely.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/5wXvwAJLx2

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

A bounce after the first low of the bear market makes sense.

So far, everything is right where it should be. It's the exact time frame expected according to the Halving Cycles Theory, and price at the first low band of the Bear Bands.

The next important low isn't due for at least another 5 months, and the cycle bottom, at the earliest, 3 months after that.

The second low band is at 44.5k, and the cycle bottom band is at 28.5k.

This bear market still has plenty of time to go and a lot of ground to cover!

[glassnode @glassnode]

Range-Bound Under Pressure

Bitcoin has broken below the True Market Mean, slipping into a defensive range toward the Realized Price (~$54.9k). Spot and ETF demand remain weak, and panic hedging has eased.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/XAp8OQr65i

[glassnode @glassnode]

During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses.
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse.
📉https://t.co/pDQl8kIRyF

[glassnode @glassnode]

🔄 Update:
With the spot price trading at $68.8K, the key on-chain price models are as follows:

🔴 STH Cost Basis: $90.9K
🟡 Active Investors Mean: $85.8k
🟢True Market Mean: $79.0K
---- Spot Price: $68.8K ----
🔵 Realized Price: $54.9K

📊 https://t.co/mJ1JCnkr4N

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The last big move was a precise hit of level 2 on the Magic Bands at 65k.

And, in the exact time frame you'd expect. Dates for previous level 2 in bear markets:

February 26th, 2014
February 3rd, 2018
January 23rd, 2022
February 7th, 2026

The cycle bottom band, which has been incredibly accurate, sits at 28.2k and is slightly increasing.

Lots of waiting to do!

[glassnode @glassnode]

Structural Weakness

Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/zirk4tjzcM

[glassnode @glassnode]

Stress Builds Below Resistance

$BTC is consolidating with muted volumes, as spot bid rebuilds slowly while options markets lean increasingly defensive.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/gHlpg5XSxZ

[glassnode @glassnode]

During the November–December bottoming phase, supply accumulation was primarily driven by larger entities, while smaller cohorts were distributing.

This divergence appears to be driven in part by exchange-related wallet reshuffling, and also by large holders buying the dip.
📉 https://t.co/manR4TGxov

[glassnode @glassnode]

Failed Breakout

#Bitcoin is consolidating in a low-volume regime, with easing spot pressure, light leverage, and volatility priced as short-lived rather than structural.

Read the full Week On-Chain👇
https://t.co/zQyLdUEMAI

[Julio @JulioHug_]

@Sonecarox @pedro_199918

[glassnode @glassnode]

Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.

📉 https://t.co/IpxEWurY3i

[Tomas @TomasOnMarkets]

OK, lots of bad takes on X over the past few days.

Is there a banking crisis? (no)

Is there a dollar funding crisis? (not really - yet)

Is the Fed doing QE? (no)

So what's going on?

The current funding/banking issues are largely being fueled by a rebuild of the Treasury General Account (TGA) - the US Government's "bank account" at the Federal Reserve.

This started in June after the Government raised the debt ceiling.

The "target level" for this TGA rebuild was $850bn.

When cash moves from financial markets into the TGA at the Fed, it can be considered a "liquidity drain" because cash sitting idle in the TGA is essentially "removed from markets".

So, a "liquidity drain" of roughly $700bn.

It also causes bank reserves to contract.

And this is what has happened - bank reserves have fallen to multi-year lows (shown here as a percentage of GDP).

This contraction in liquidity within the banking system can cause stress in important dollar funding markets.

We can see this stress through elevated SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) levels - what banks pay to receive the financing they need.

I would still characterize the recent SOFR spike as relatively minor.

Nowhere near what we saw in September 2019 - "the Repo Crisis" - which caused a meltdown within the banking system and forced the Federal Reserve to abruptly switch from QT to QE.

More below.

[glassnode @glassnode]

Smaller $BTC holders are stepping up.
Strong accumulation is underway among small to mid-sized cohorts (1–1000 BTC), while large holders have slowed distribution, signaling renewed confidence in spite of the recent shakeout.

[CoinGlass @coinglass_com]

Update!

Top 50 Crypto Liquidation Events

https://t.co/s4XV87zlE2

[Tomas @TomasOnMarkets]

Looks we've triggered a huge mechanical deleveraging of systematic strategies today.

They were ultra-long equities and therefore hyper-sensitive to small fluctuations in trend and volatility, so it doesn't take much for them to start selling.

It's been ripe for a while.

They'll keep selling if the market keeps dropping/volatility keeps rising.

Biggest one-day drop in the S&P 500 since April (currently).

To be fair, bitcoin is hanging in well all things considered.

Where we are bouncing now is an important level in my opinion (volume point-of-control).

A loss of this level would probably see a rotation back to the low of the range.