Ivan

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst. I find insights in publicly available data. My market edge is in geopolitical risk assessment and event-driven trading

[Ivan @July51328465]

@jejani that one winner makes all the noise, true story

[Ivan @July51328465]

Here is the beauty of momentum: one day nobody cares, then NRED wakes up and suddenly every trader wants the story. What a shift

#omegle #teenagee #momson
TSLA AMZN GOOGL AVGO TSM

[Ivan @July51328465]

Because momentum needs confirmation. NRED / NREDF getting a second green day is the first sign that buyers may be building a real position, not just flipping a headline. NFA.

#nolimits #ometv #teenager
WDFC SCNX BNC BJ CCC

[Ivan @July51328465]

Here is exactly what I’m waiting for: proof that MetalCore can improve workflow, not just store data. NRED NFA.

#2d89ef #AMIPARIS #6366f1 #cbd5e1 #TheValley
$SMCI $KVUE $HTZ $BABA $SKYQ

[Ivan @July51328465]

@MbassaDeus solid advice, gotta stay safe and spread the risk around

[Elise Fisher @Gopher_topher4]

@WaveFx89 nice summary, makes reading charts way easier lol

[Ivan @July51328465]

@DeFiTracer hope this doesn’t escalate any further smh

[Ivan @July51328465]

@juliebschmitt @Ij422 same, totally caught me off guard today

[Ivan @July51328465]

No comfort needed. Just a live thesis and controlled risk. Buy the dip. NRED / NREDF

#Terremoto #AriasTraidor #CR7TheGoat #nolimits #omegle
$TECH $RGEN $W $TXG $IQV

[Ivan @July51328465]

@itsmichaelluu that $RXT move is wild, definitely watching this one closely

[WayMac 📊 @waymac_x]

Difference between Backtesting & Live trading💯

[Breakout Trading Academy @onlybreakouts]

The harder you optimize for win rate in backtesting, the worse your live results get.

I tested this across 2,500 breakout strategies. Each had separate in-sample and out-of-sample data. I pushed the minimum win percentage threshold progressively higher, and tracked what happened to out-of-sample performance.

As in-sample win rate went up, average out-of-sample win rate went down.

The correlation between backtest win rate and live win rate? 0.11. Eleven percent. A strategy winning 80% of its trades in backtesting was no more likely to hold that win rate live than one winning 50%. The regression line was almost perfectly flat.

Optimizing for Net profit told a completely different story. 0.63 correlation. Clear upward slope. Strategies with higher in-sample net profit tended to produce higher out-of-sample net profit.

Every filter you add to boost win rate makes the strategy more specific to historical data. You are not finding a better edge. You are eliminating losing trades that happened for random reasons that will not repeat. The strategy memorizes noise instead of capturing signal.

Pushing for higher net profit? That kept improving out-of-sample results.

2,500 strategies. Two metrics.

One predicts live performance.

The other is noise.

[Qmo @QmoCrypto]

🚨 NEXT WEEK COULD BE THE MOST VOLATILE WEEK OF 2026

MONDAY → FED GOVERNOR SPEECH
TUESDAY → $3.31 BILLION FED CASH INJECTION
WEDNESDAY → FOMC MEETING
THURSDAY → INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS
FRIDAY → JAPAN DUMPS $620 BILLION IN ETFS

EVERY DAY BRINGS A NEW LIQUIDITY OR RATE CATALYST, AND FRIDAY COULD BECOME THE BIGGEST SHOCK OF THEM ALL.

STOCKS, BONDS, THE DOLLAR AND CRYPTO ARE ALL ABOUT TO REPRICE AT ONCE...

[NicoleSousa @NicoleSouusa]

@Ij422 i must be getting old because i seriously don't understand the appeal of this

[Ivan @July51328465]

$NRED / $NREDF: a near-full waitlist gives MetalCore an audience, while 4.1M+ records give that audience something substantial to work with. That is why the update matters. #moreDayTrends $WYY #Sismo $MU

[Ivan @July51328465]

@SteveRattner totally feels like prices keep rising faster than pay these days

[Price is Truth @price_is_truth]

@JasonL_Capital Agree with your thesis. The market will get ahead of this for sure. I'm in shares atm. I think leaps at these levels make sense though may I turn them into spreads.

[Jason Luongo @JasonL_Capital]

Free LEAPS trade idea:

You could buy 100 shares of $MSFT right now for $36,800.

Or you could buy the $300 call expiring January 2028 for roughly $112.00.

That's $11,200 for leveraged exposure to 100 shares of Microsoft - 18 months out - for about 70% less capital.

Breakeven: $412.00

Why the setup is interesting:

- MSFT is down ~24% in 2026, its worst month since the dot com era, almost entirely on AI capex fear
- Q3 revenue $82.9B, up 18% YoY, beating estimates
- Azure grew 40% YoY, its fastest rate in over a year
- AI business now at a $37B annual run rate, up 123% YoY
- Commercial backlog hit $627B, up 99% YoY - a locked-in order book
- Forward P/E compressed to ~22x vs a 10-year average near 31x, roughly 25% below its own history
- $300 strike sits deep in the money with a delta around 0.80, so the LEAP tracks the stock closely

If $MSFT hits $450 by expiration, the LEAP returns roughly 34% vs 22% on shares.
If $MSFT hits $500, the LEAP returns roughly 79% vs 36% on shares.
If $MSFT hits $555, the LEAP returns roughly 128% vs 51% on shares.

The max you can lose on a LEAP is the entire premium you paid. At ~$112/contract, that's $11,200 of capital at risk. If $MSFT drops or stays flat, this contract loses value every day.

The capex fear is real - free cash flow fell ~10% and the $190B AI buildout won't pay off overnight. This is a high-conviction play on the buildout maturing, not a casual position.

Not financial advice. I share these for education.

[Daily Income Gains @dailyincomegain]

@Barchart Wild that the sector is near record highs and most of its stocks are already broken, a few giants are basically carrying the whole index on their back right now

[Unification @UnificationXX]

@RebellioMarket We need to strive to trade like banks