I cannot endorse this more. If your seat doesn’t come with a license to go deep, adapt your mental frameworks quickly, be extremely open-minded, and occasionally sound insane, you are probably in trouble long term.
Many unimaginative investors waited almost 10 years for the P/E multiples on their Bloombergs to mean-revert without noticing that increasingly enormous companies were generating massive returns at increasing scale, which made that nearly impossible.
This period is a version of that on steroids. That isn’t a determinative statement. The path does not have to be upward. But there exist right tails that require depth and imagination. If you can’t see them, you can’t understand the underlying asymmetry and therefore can’t have a properly calibrated lens to assess risk.
If you are on the buyside and your PM or CIO insists AI is a bubble you should do everything in your power to find a new seat.
How deeply you understand bottlenecks and tokenomics will be the primary driver of alpha over the next five years and you should put yourself in a position where you have the leash to be involved and learning instead of watching from the sidelines.
We are at the starting line. The people pointing to memory stocks instead of model IQ tipping points simply lack the IQ or imagination to understand that.
Thinking more about this. This is almost exactly how the Chandlers (secretive Kiwi multi billionaires) made all their money. No 5 ten baggers in a row per se but 5 multi baggers, in a row, rolling the entire stack forward each time (with leverage.
Went from a few hundred k to >$10bn over 25yrs or something like that
1/7 JS Hypothesis: AI is a structural disruption to enterprise SaaS.
AI Foundation models are structurally centralized, polymath entities that crate value by reasoning across domains and aggregating system wide data+ context.
1/7 JS Hypothesis: AI is a structural disruption to enterprise SaaS.
AI Foundation models are structurally centralized, polymath entities that crate value by reasoning across domains and aggregating system wide data+ context.
8/9 I’m not sure how any of today’s SaaS models could match such O/S breadth… but this market could take years to unlock so they have time to adapt. Glean, DataBricks, and Palantir sure are growing quickly though.
@ScottMountford6 I recently bought more at $58. I’ll keep adding small amounts here over the next year. Still really like the biz. Won’t be disrupted by AI. They made the right biz pivot into agentics and CVP at exactly the right time