I have learned from experience that the experts, the government, and conventional wisdom are often wrong. ‘Inflation is transitory.” “C19 did not escape from the Wuhan lab.” “@Ukraine will fall in less than a week.” “Its not possible because it hasn’t been done before or because it hasn’t happened before.”
It is often the outlier with no experience in a field that challenges the status quo, that makes the important discovery, that has the unique insight, or creates the transformational innovation.
@elonmusk was not an expert in payments, electric cars or rockets. The ‘experts’ were at Visa, GM and NASA.
When you are part of the establishment, it is hard to challenge the conventional wisdom. You are incentivized not to. And when your economic livelihood can be threatened by an alternative point of view or a new innovation, you are less likely to believe it or its viability.
The greatest opportunities for discovery, innovation, understanding, and profits often exist in the unexplored paths, the unasked and unanswered questions, and in the improbable possibilities.
Our best investments have been: (1) in the stock of a real estate company going bankrupt, (2) from betting that a triple-A rated company was insolvent, and (3) betting that a virus in China would cause a global economic shutdown.
Each of these investments were met with extreme skepticism at the time they were made. In each case, we were the naive ones when we made these investments. We were not bankruptcy investors, experts in bond insurers or credit default swaps, nor did we know anything about viruses or pandemics.
From my experience, knowledge is advanced and insights are gleaned by studying alternative points of view from conventional and unconventional sources of information, and by not discrediting a point of view simply because it comes from someone who is not an accredited member of the relevant establishment, who does not have an advanced degree in the subject at hand, and/or someone whom has been criticized in the media.
In an effort to get to the truth, I try to keep my mind open to alternative possibilities and weigh them against each other. I often find that truth can emerge when two or more articulate and intelligent individuals in an open forum discuss and debate a controversial subject and are required to address unscripted questions from a knowledgeable audience or moderator.
The above is why I added to the pot in attempting to convince @PeterHotez to discuss vaccines with @RobertKennedyJr on @joerogan. I think knowledge will emerge from the discussion that will catalyze further explorations or investigations that will bring us closer to the truth and help us answer questions about vaccine efficacy and safety that remain unsettled for many. And if @PeterHotez is not the best or most knowledgeable advocate for vaccines, then we should find another one.
In getting to the truth, I want to hear from the greatest skeptics and advocates. Both deserve a platform on the path to truth.
And no, I am not an anti-vaxxer.
In the future, when AI makes everything abundant, the only scarce resource will be computer cycles, which is the name for Replit's virtual currency, which is now registered with the US government.
The healthiest thing about the current startup environment is less magical thinking: in boom times you had startups buying topline revenue by selling $20 bills for $10.
Founders with hopium were trying to get to the next round.
“Just trying to turn a few cards…”
The next iteration of Perplexity has arrived: Copilot, your interactive AI search companion. 🚀🤖 Perplexity Copilot guides your search experience with interactive inputs, leading you to a rich, personalized answer, powered by GPT-4. Try it for free at https://t.co/ut3wdOwUEd
The best articulation I’ve heard for true customer NPS came from Buffett when describing Apple:
“If someone offered you $10,000 to never buy an iPhone or Apple product ever again, you wouldn't take it. If someone offered you $10,000 to never buy a Ford again you'd take it and go buy a Chevy."
Brilliant.
@arampell 💯
A corollary of sorts:
“A top-notch engineer is worth three hundred times or more than an average engineer.… I’d rather lose an entire incoming class of engineering graduates than one exceptional technologist.”
- Laszlo Bock
Google Former Head of People
1) Nicotinamide mononucleotide (NMN)
Dose: 1g/day (pharma grade)
NMN is a precursor to NAD+ which is essential for cellular energy production
That said, NAD+ levels decline as we age, making NMN/NR/Niacin suppelemntation potentially valuable
Here is a picture of me with my uncle, whose wisdom affected me profoundly. Today, these words of his are especially relevant: “A nation that is afraid to let its people judge truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.”
We're entering a phase of co-creation.
As the barrier to create (software, music, stories, etc.) lowers, brands and platforms that partner with their fans and community will benefit greatly.
GPT-4-32K is the world's best product manager.
I gave it access to hundreds of data points from users who uninstalled HyperWrite.
Watch it tell me exactly what we should work on next to improve the product.
Notion has built a $10B business on the back of community-led growth.
• 1M+ global community members
• 25M+ users
• $60M+ ARR
Here is their exact strategy:
#1 Look at the increase of news articles mentioning "white privilege," "systemic racism," "diversity and inclusion," and "unconscious bias."
How does the media's focus on identity politics and critical race theory contribute to the division and polarization of society?