Gamblor247

Amateur Stock Trader

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

ASK ME ANYTHING!

Unanswered questions, unclear statements, charts, trading rules, psychology, risk, sizing, strategy, the Market Wizards chapter, the 2020 run, the run since, anything.

I’m thinking of writing again on Substack, a few deeper posts per month, similar to how Burry started writing again.

I want the first essays to answer the questions people actually care about the most.

So reply with the one question you would want me to go deepest on.

The best ones, perhaps with most likes to show interest will become the first ones answered.

https://t.co/VMTviDewLu

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@TheShortBear Thanks for the update and all your knowledge that you kindly share

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@bryan_johnson HAHAHAHAHA You looking younger today!

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@aleabitoreddit What an accomplishment! Congratulations! Help those animals!

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@aleabitoreddit Haha great idea!

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@SellingRips Yo Rips is the man

[RIPS @RIPS]

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https://t.co/KvMk6wV0zJ

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

My Path

This is the first hot market I have missed in 6 years I think.

I was gone on vacation for 1 month and really thought about the way I want to approach trading and my life path going forward.
__

The result:

I do not want to be actively trading anymore. I do not want the stress, the time involvement, the volatility, the toxic competition.

I want to compound and work/live around people I respect and love. I want those around me to prosper and the cake to get bigger for all, not for the piece to get bigger because I thought my friend for it (day trade vs investing/ finite vs infinite mindset)

It is hard to cut the ties because it is who I was for the past 10 years, however what is my goal and my position?

When everyone you traded with your entire career is still trading and they do so within a group, it is extremely easy to conform to the social pressure (be it hidden or not).
__

Why did I trade

At my core, I wanted freedom which is what money gave me. I had nothing to lose, no lifestyle, no expenses... I was young, hungry to prove people wrong and gain my freedom through it.

I reflected on it all and I found a few answers.

I have freedom✅
I have the lifestyle I want ✅
I do not need to make it twice ✅
I live a stress free life(as much as possible)✅
I want more time to think and learn🚫?

Continuing to trade does not provide me a better life, heightens my stress, reduces my freedom through the time involvement and increases the risk of a black swan.

I am in a different situation than others and thus had to truly reflect on why I am doing what I am. Even the biggest traders I know continued to trade past success, however none of them knew how to invest or even had the remote interest to do so.

I saw 9fig trades blow up and also nearly blow up. Does it need to be me?
__

Resolution

My passion is not trading, it is the markets, it is the game, the quest for new mastery of a craft. I do not need to be actively trading to continue this path.

Instead I want to manage my portfolio for legacy. I want to compound and be in the game in 50y.

I am 23y old at this time and I have the biggest asset any super investor would want. Time to compound.

I will be continuing to learn from the masters out there like Buffett, Smith, Ackman and alike and aiming to match the ~15% per year returns. Additionally I will be investing/trading with a layer of pyramiding risk management as taught by Druckenmiller and Soros to maximize returns.

Trades, should I take any, will all be based around this philosophy:

"I will refrain from engaging in trades where an unfavorable shift against my position presents a more favorable opportunity, recognizing that it is within these realms that the elusive black swan resides."
__

All my biggest losses and most stressful positions started as small positions, followed by adds while losing and I kept on being proven wrong.

The truth is you can not truly eliminate these situations from happening if strategies are build around reversion. You can stop out, however you will stop out in the spot that has better odds than the one you entered at.

Thus the more you are wrong, the more enticing the opportunity. You are constantly fighting between bad risk management and Win rate and it creates a heightened black swan potential and a shift in win vs losses distribution.
__

🚫Reversion trades: Dip buys, parabolic shorts and capitulation trades.

✅Trend trades: Breakouts, EP, Investing

The overall shift in trading approach will get rid of high win rate strategies, but will focus on strategies based on RR. Risk-reward is where pyramiding reigns king and thus my expertise.

If I am right, I get the right to maximize positions to huge gains, if I am wrong I will take my small losses. A peaceful life.
__

Bottom line

This new approach will allow me to focus on what truly matters and will be united with my values.
I will:
- not be exposed to career ending losses
- have time to learn (even outside of the stock market)
- use compounding as my closest ally
- allow for alpha to be captured

The hardest part about this all is to let go of preconceived notions, to walk my own path despite all my friends and trader friends walking another path and despite the countless conversations, messages and alike I get multiple times per day.

My success comes from the ability to do what other will not do.

First in small caps reading SEC filings and using data when none did. Second by learnings about macro and investing and 3x my account during the 2022/23 recovery.

Now it is time to adjust once more to the liquidity profile and overall goals and just like these prior paths, I will have to start walking alone.

The strategy will revolve around quality investing traded with a Druckenmiller/Soros risk management(pyramid) and accompanied by the alpha the select breakout opportunities will provide throughout time.

This will lead to a long term compounding effect with alpha being used to start new compounding positions.

Writing this out allows me to be more structured in my thoughts and this approach and I hope this now explains how I will proceed.

I do not want to close the door on trading, however this is for now, the journey I will embrace.

[MrBeast @MrBeast]

$1 Car vs $100,000,000 Car!!!

I’m curious how much ad revenue a video on X would make so I’m reuploading this to test it. Will share ad rev next week ❤️

[MrBeast @MrBeast]

I’m gonna give 10 random people that repost this and follow me $25,000 for fun (the $250,000 my X video made)

I’ll pick the winners in 72 hours

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@peterkto All of them

[Pete @peterkto]

new post: The 10 Traders You'll Meet in Prop https://t.co/UKFwTqBmkd

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

I want to become an 8 figure trader.

But I won't ever get there without the right knowledge.

Here's a lifetime of wisdom packed into 6 threads from the biggest traders on Twitter:

[AsymTrading @AsymTrading]

My Top 10 Non-Standard Trading Resources

Everyone points to the classic trading books - O'Neil, Darvas, Weinstein, Minervini, the Market Wizards series, Mark Douglas, and others. I certainly have all of the books from these authors and have read them many times. I wanted to list a few other books or courses that may not be mainstream, but I took a lot away from them. Many are likely out of circulation.

1) ADXcellence by Dr. Schaap
I'd be remiss if I didn't put this one on the top. This book describes a method for finding "power trends" and uses a combination of the ADX/DMI indicator and basic price action to identify and enter high probability trades. Each setup essentially exploits different stages of a power trend lifecycle.

2) The Layman's Guide to Trading Stocks by Dave Landry
The "Trendfollowing Moron" gives simple, practical advice on chart and pattern analysis, trade entry and management, and a host of other gems.

3) The Best by Kevin Marder (RIP)
This book is less a trading guide and more similar to the Market Wizards books. It introduced me to traders like Dr. Chris Kacher, Mark Boucher, Greg Kuhn, David Ryan, Jeff Cooper, and others. These stories show that there's more than one way to skin a cat.

4) Kuhn-Marder Intermediate-Term Trading Course by Greg Kuhn and Kevin Marder
This trading course showed me that it's possible to use a simple methodology and some basic market timing to produce outsized returns.

5) Hit and Run Trading by Jeff Cooper
This is a classic swing trading book that many newer traders might be unfamiliar with. My big takeaway from this book is that it's possible to have simple, scannable repeatable setups. Also, his core setups have one enter after an up day, showing me that day two setups are viable if day one was not entered.

6) Hedgefund Edge by Mark Boucher
While Boucher is a longer-term hedgefund manager and much of this book deals with economic theory, Appendix A has a fantastically described dual timeframe method for short-term traders. Stockbee even indicated it was this section that kickstarted his swing trading career, or something to that effect.

7) The Investors Edge by Gary Kaltbaum
This book was insightful on how to use breakouts to study the character of the market and how to identify opportunity and avoid danger. I used to listen to him on his radio show which he still produces daily. https://t.co/BWkVdpNVWI

8) Trader Vic II - Principles of Professional Speculation
Sporandeo's 1-2-3 trend change method has been stolen so many times people don't remember where it came from. His 2B and trend change patterns are classics.

9) Larry Williams - The Secret of Selecting Stocks for Immediate and Substantial Gains
This book is great for understanding how to spot the signs of accumulation and distribution and relative strength. It helps one build an eye for spotting the leaders and stocks with potential.

10) The 5 Secrets to Highly Profitable Swing Trading by Ivaylo Ivanov
This is a simple book, but full of practical wisdom. The picture of the boom-bust trader vs the market timing trader probably broke me out of boom-bust trading. I'm not joking - that one image was so profound and powerful. It cut to the heart of why I struggled for so many years. Thanks Ivan. I owe you a beer.

There you have it. My top 10 non-classic trading resources. Don't forget the classics. They are classics for a reason.

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

http://65.203.19.89/Widget/Control.aspx

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@Mali_Binen @TheShortBear Yes how do we get an invite to this discord?

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@TheShortBear Like this format! Enjoy reading your report cards too.

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

https://t.co/Qs499m6ddt Check it out ya Herb! Great knowledge being shared for free!
@sanglucci @TradeSpacePR

[Gamblor247 @KaleoD]

@sspencer_smb Is there a way to access your SMB Morning game plan? Live YouTube stream in the future? Thank you for all your great content and entertaining tweets!

[Will🦶🏼 @Barefoot_Will_]

Features of a “good” shoe include
•No extra support
•Wide toe box
•Zero Drop
•Pliable
•Light
•Flat

Onto the list! (no certain order)
👇🏽