I've worked in IB & PE. Now I run a hedge fund.
So I'm pretty qualified in knowing what good analysis looks like.
One key thing I've learnt in my career is that you *have* to enjoy reading equity research so you don't get burnt out.
But naturally, only a few firms/people are talented enough to put out truly enjoyable, digestable research.
Some of them are hiding in plain sight, right here on @X
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So with that, here's a non-exhaustive list of people on @X I look forward to reading on a daily basis, in the hopes that some of you will too (if you're not already!)
In no particular order:
> @illyquid - mainly Asian related AI semis/hardware research & live analysis
> @damnang2 - in-depth, technical semiconductor research/theses
> @aleabitoreddit - deep thematic research/theses & company/sector analysis
> @PhotonCap - technical photonics & semiconductor research/theses
> @pepemoonboy - mix of macro/company specific comms
> @crux_capital_ - technical photonics deep dives & crucial updates on key players
> @Frenchie_ broad macro commentary & analysis
> @Blinklebloop - data centers / AI value chain analysis
> @KawzInvests - deep AI/tech/space analysis
> @degentradingLSD - broad macro/AI aligned commentary & analysis
> @michaelsikand - photonics/AI aligned research & commentary
> @Kaizen_Investor AI supply chain analysis & other sector specific trades
> @Yeah_Dave - broad macro comms & space/AI specific
> @TheValueist - AI-aligned research & company specific analysis
Druckenmiller is the GOAT because he never marries a theme or idea.
He’s the best in the business at changing his mind.
Will forever be better than Buffett.
I’m spending the weekend sifting through Q3 2025 investor letters.
Cut the macro fluff, kept the good stuff. Ended up with 10 high conviction ideas.
A few of these look like multibaggers.
Let’s dive in 🧵
Investors are holding one of the lowest proportions of cash in modern history: November BofA global fund manager survey. "Cash levels of 3.7% or lower has occurred 20 times since 2002, & on every occasion stocks fell and Treasuries outperformed in the following 1-3 months:" BofA
Tech bonds are getting hit hard of late as debt traders start wondering if they're getting left with the bill for the stock market's enthusiasm. Oracle's $3.5 billion of 30-year debt issued in September has cratered by 8% from the October peak.
The Rule of 40 is a pivotal financial metric used to evaluate the performance of SaaS and other growth-oriented software companies. It serves as a benchmark that balances revenue growth and profitability, providing a comprehensive snapshot of a company's overall financial health.
A company that meets or exceeds the 40% threshold is generally considered to be performing well, making it potentially more attractive to investors looking for balanced growth and profitability.
In this case, I used the GAAP EBITDA Margin TTM combined with revenue growth estimates for the next year.
The Rule of 40 allows for the comparison of companies at different stages and scales.
On the chart, companies with a Rule 40 score <30% are marked in red, those <40% in yellow, and those >40% in green.
*-Selection criteria: software companies with the majority of their revenue subscription-based, EV over $1 billion, and a gross margin above 40%.
The chart includes the most popular stocks: $CRWD $PLTR $NET $RBRK $SHOP $ZS $SNOW $NOW $AXON $PANW $DUOL $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $APP $ORCL.
Everyone is blinded by the flashy #BYD but nobody is connecting the dots on what @kamrankamal is trying to build here(I think). Aluminum smelting is a much safer bet for hubco. It is also in demand and also VERY power hungry.
AI data centers are extremely risky. To begin with, there are supply chain issues. Wait times for data center equipment is anywhere from 12-24 months. This is exactly the time chip design/density changes in. Without having any edge in this field, it won't make sense to enter it. Try placing GPU or memory chips orders from Pakistan while Microsoft, Amazon, META, etc. are standing in line for the same.
Aluminum smelting fits perfectly with the EV trend by the way, which hub power already has a foot in via BYD. Smelting will fit right into this with a Chinese partnership. Aluminum goes into car components and batteries, both of which HUBC is developing expertise in. In fact, lots of R&D being done on Aluminum based battery and BYD is the second largest battery maker in the world(HUBC also into same for some years now). Also more env friendly so easier to get funding, something Kamran Kamal has already pointed before.
Don't underestimate the management. BYD may look like a pivot to EVs but it could just be a gateway to a much bigger game.