Karen Topliss

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@Ihatesugar3 I had a fair few up until 11am which I reported but none subsequently. I hope you haven’t now jinxed me 😂😂

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@doveyymargeauxx @JohnMcNab1960 @SeleneA92651315 Rupert’s keyboard warrior would no doubt say

I don’t care

🙈🙈🙈

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@GHWTowler @OxfordUnion Hope you don’t trigger the students with that Dickie Bow. 😂

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@Ihatesugar3 I’ve had a few new ones today. All reported so hopefully will be quiet again until the morning when it starts over.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@MazS56 @d5_rss @christopherhope @GBNEWS Look on GB news feed. Interview with Richard Tice.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@GBNEWS Crickey. I get the feeling that Chris Hope knows who it might be and was trying to bait Richard Tice. Of course, I’m probably completely wrong.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@zatzi For anyone who watched to hustings he has made himself look an absolute fool.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@GuidoFawkes @Teresa19618773 No mention of cuts to welfare???

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@GHWTowler Another worth while read, thank you.

Dan Hodges hoping to be Andy’s new Beff should Andy win.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@elliehodges62 @barryAshcroft4 Politics at this level is not for the faint hearted. You would have to be crazy to put yourself up for a by-election such as this particular one. I wonder if it is a case of her rushing in before she is ready.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@GuidoFawkes Sack mad Ed and spend the money on Defence!!!!!

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@JohnHealey_MP Respect for this. Our defence is so very critical in these times.

[Josh Hunt @iAmJoshHunt]

There’s a seismic shift happening in the gilt market that seems to be mostly going unnoticed. Everyone argues about how much Britain borrows, but the question of who lends rarely gets asked.

For most of the post-war period the gilt market had a captive domestic buyer. In recent decades that was overwhelmingly British defined benefit pension funds. They typically bought 30-year gilts and held them to maturity, because the rules said they had to. Which means the gilt market had a captive lender, quietly underwriting the entire post-war state.

The seismic shift we’re seeing… the captive lender is leaving.

DB pension schemes are closed and maturing. They are running off their gilts to pay pensioners, not buying more. They still own around 45% of the index-linked market, and that holding winds down over the next decade. On top of that, the BoE is selling too. Quantitative tightening, year after year, to unwind its balance sheet.

The replacement to British pension funds has arrived quietly. And most people have no idea about this shift.

Hedge funds now account for 63% of electronic gilt trading, which is up by a third since 2021. Pension funds and insurers have fallen from 45% to 26%. Overseas investors hold around 35% of the market, up from under 25% a decade ago. This isn’t central banks, it’s global bond funds. These are mobile, yield-hungry, gone-in-an-afternoon type entities. Not the long term holders we had in the pension funds.

The fast money doesn't own the majority of the stock yet. But it’s now dominating the trading, and the trading sets the price. This is a relatively new dynamic that will only continue to grow as pension funds see their holdings mature.

This is why long yields hit 1998 highs while inflation fell. The borrowing hasn’t changed. But the lender has.

And this is why it’s stiff drink time. The state needs to sell £246 billion of gilts this year, and every year for years, into exactly this market.

Every deficit argument in British politics assumed the lenders would be there, just like the dependency ratio assumed the workers would be there.

The whole system runs on lenders who no longer have to show up. And they expect a higher premium. Potentially a much higher premium.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@SBarrettBar Best lunch they had ever had in their eyes (probably). 😂

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@MichelleDewbs @SpeechUnion Problem is it’s too late to stop the bad stuff from happening. Too few police, too light on crime and no money to put that right. Too many problems to note. 🙈

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@Go37005Anthony @BlobWarriorUK Especially when the Greenparty have had an audit and came out of it badly. Many staff members being paid less than others in equivalent roles.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@RWTaylors @james_freeman__ This is democracy.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@NickDixon Guilt. You are the only ones that can calm the situation so do your duty and take one for the team.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@InsideBritain Google her. Big beef with Farage.

[Karen Topliss @KarenTopper67]

@LeeHurstComic It will probably take them 8 weeks to open the letter. 🙈🙈good luck.