Eurozone inflation down to 2.8% in June, and core down to 2.4%, which is where it was in February before the war started. A very dovish data point that seals the deal for a hold at the July meeting.
The burden of proof is likely to reverse again - for the ECB to justify another hike, they'll need to see much stronger second-round effects as Pierre Wunsch just said.
We're seeing the first signs of concern about gas storage in Europe (see FT article https://t.co/6biOnWNRJy).
Not saying this will be an Economist cover calling the bottom, but I expect in a couple of months things will look better. Let´s check after summer.
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28 June 2026
ENERGY SHOCK AND EUROZONE OUTLOOK
No, the energy shock is not over
The MoU between the US and Iran is not holding. Oil and gas prices have fallen, and financial markets remain complacent, believing that, one way or another, President Trump will get his way.
From today’s perspective the ECB will need to raise interest rates further to bring inflation back to 2%, Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel tells @zeitonline. The extent and timing will depend on how the conflict, the economy and inflation evolve.
https://t.co/FefxwHCeua
In the meantime....
*SCHNABEL: FROM TODAY'S VIEW MORE HIKING NEEDED TO GET TO 2%
*SCHNABEL: ECB RATES AREN'T YET RESTRICTIVE: ZEIT
*SCHNABEL: THERE'S AN INCREASING RISK OF SECOND-ROUND EFFECTS
Alan Greenspan has died at 100. During his 18½ years leading the Fed, he reached rock-star heights and shaped the U.S. economy under presidents of both parties. Milton Friedman called him the greatest of all time. 2008 recast his legacy.
Suomi nousi taas ruman listan kärkeen: ”Suurimmat riskit” ja ”Uusi Italia” – Yksi asia nousee kiireellisenä esiin asiantuntijan arviossa #talous#velka#euro https://t.co/mTiirgKyUr
Donald #Trump paljasti todellisen syyn Giorgia Melonin ryöpyttämiselle – Asiantuntijat: Myrskyvaroitus koko Natolle #Meloni#Nato#ulpo https://t.co/Y6Y6oHGSpX
No @McFaul this is only the savvy reaction of a struggling far-right leader, who had kissed the ring until she could,humiliated yet again by another far-right leader, as she faces the beginning of an election campaign where she risks being outflanked even further from the right
Giorgia Meloni celebrating deportations as the magic fix to migration, an inhuman, costly and largely ineffective remedy to a more complex problem.
PS Meloni - like Sanchez - has been regularizing over 500,000 illegal migrants
Meloni: “ io e Trump siamo due persone che difendono il proprio interesse nazionale”
Bene. Ma USA fa il leader. Se ITA non vuole essere follower deve stare saldamente in Europa per avere la dimensione
‼️ Nadia Calviño, whose name is often mentioned in discussions about the next ECB presidency, was asked about the role at an event today.
As one would expect from someone currently leading another major European institution, she declined to engage with the speculation and instead said that she is "absolutely proud, committed, happy" to head the EIB.
https://t.co/BmG2uz3edi