Steven Kerscher

Investor. Opinions are my own, not financial advice. Pragmatic and not political. Golf. Travel. X is my catharsis.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@GaryMarcus So garbage in, garbage out? A lesson that’s been around a long time.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@FirstSquawk Given the behavior of the VIX leading up to, then dropping precipitously this morning, and then rallying to higher levels than earlier in the week, it seems less about NVDA and more about other 'yet to be known' issues that are bothering the market of late...watch the VIX

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

Could it be that you could have good economic data/growth and a disinflationary environment?? It has happened before...rates can still get to neutral in such an environment without creating inflationary spikes.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

Quite certainly…the most awe-inspiring place on earth…it simply does not get better than this!

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

All the truth social posts are encouraging a “kiss the ring” request. Those that do will find favor, those that don’t will be ostracized.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@CGasparino @RealJimChanos @saylor IBIT is a much cheaper holding company…just saying

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@FinanceLancelot How’s the 2025 chart look compared to these two?

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

Not sure how we get to a 25% tariff number either…sounds fuzzy just like the first go round.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

Navarro writing out truth social posts again… 👀👀👀

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

It is still a game of relativity of one country's economic capability (USA) against every other out there...as yields rise, there will be a point where everyone gets on board. Unfortunately, DC seems to only work in chaos...pandering every other time. Question is where is the put on this as with everything else.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@PoolaoJack 20 year auction has to be the culprit...can't believe it would be OpenAI's acquisition news or Trump's confrontation to S. African's President.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

I haven't seen any news headlines, but the move down today at 1pm, had to be the results of the 20 year bond auction.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@MikeZaccardi It will be interesting when XLU becomes a growth story again

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

Continues to be a lot of noise in press, pressers, and posts. Have to watch the signals clearly and look for patterns...

From what I am seeing...data is going to show some positive and some negatives that will continue to create a market (both buyers and sellers). At some point (don't know when), you'll see conviction in one side or the other which is different than what we did see in early April...unabated fear and disillusionment.

VIX, DXY, Gold will likely tell the story...10 year seems to be aligned with Oil at the moment. Look for pairs and triplets that reinforce what will happen. And then remember that everything can change in a post or a presser.

Talk and body language is cheap, but it can also reveal clues....

Slew of earnings and if history tells us anything in time of uncertainty...those collective outlooks will create the conviction in direction.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

Really not sure the purpose of that Bessent press conference. Market so far views it as a net negative in large part due to the remarks related to Amazon. Continue to be amazed at the bully pulpit on American companies and the divide between individual and institutional investors.

They could easily thread the line better on these areas. The cheerleading of uncertainty is astounding to me.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

Constructive day...VIX below 26.50 at close...stocks and bonds performed well...always a post or news conference away from that to change. S&P nearing 5500 level where some say will be resistance...further to go in order to get back to the 200 day moving average.

Dollar weaker today and gold strong...VIX > 20 still means uncertainty. Equity breadth is encouraging.

Tons of geopolitical and tariff news still to come. Confidence is built through trust and predictability so let's continue to see steps in that direction. Encouraging signs...that hopefully continue to build tomorrow into the weekend.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@CGasparino I'm not sure there is really a lot to figure out there...stocks and bonds and the dollar will stabilize around trust and credibility...words and actions aligning...these things aren't mutually exclusive.

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@simongerman600 Missed the size of the oceans by just a bit....

[Steven Kerscher @KerscherSteven]

@CGasparino I know it gets more views and clicks when you respond, but unfortunately objectivity and pragmatism is not usually on display. Hopefully there are those that can read, research, and connect the dots that comes from these interactions though.