I've moved my blog to Substack to more clearly separate my blog from my personal website (MohammadKeyhani[dot]com) and consulting work (the new DigitVibe[dot]com coming soon). If you followed my blog please follow me again on Substack
https://t.co/YbK99NZ5pm
interpretability might be the most important scientific problem in the world right now, as I don't think we can solve alignment if we don't know what we're building. I think I have good news about it. I co-authored early work in mechanistic interpretability at OpenAI and came away pessimistic, because neural networks appeared to fold into arbitrary tangled knots. years later, I started openai's first large-scale automated interpretability project, finding about 2% of neurons legible with the primitive tools we had
with modern agentic tools and a much closer look, the picture looks totally different. the vast majority in models up to trillions of parameters are legible, and their circuits beautiful. many famous examples of tangled neurons turned out to be misunderstood. The roadblocks I expected mostly aren't there. I now think ambitious interpretability will be solved by the time we need it most, and possibly quite soon, as automated scientists keep improving. it may be a bitter lesson for interpretability: the simple thing, at absurd scale, works
https://t.co/zHij5zwKGT
There was a moment maybe two years ago when I realized that ChatGPT could have few-shot my phd dissertation (at least huge chunks of it). I did mourn for a few days, I worked my ass off for that thing.
Over time though I became sad for a different reason, that if I had ChatGPT during my PhD I could have tackle a far bigger, more important, more technically difficult dissertation question. Sometimes I think about the dissertation I could have written if I had Codex, something that an AI couldn't few-shot and I couldn't pull off without AI assistance.
I've been prototyping an automated peer review project. With current models you get human level peer review for about $0.10 of tokens. For $5 you can rederive every result, check every statistical inference, and audit every paper cited in both directions.
There are about 100m papers in the scientific corpus. Most are not important. Many are sloppy. For structural reasons it's essentially impossible to change published work, even to correct a typo.
For $500m today you can thoroughly audit every paper ever written. Every p-hacked result, every plagiarist, every fabrication, every citation club, everything.
I don't have $500m so instead I build a tree, focusing on the 1% of papers that carry 99% of the signal, doing a cheap first pass looking for obvious problems. I can find 90% of the nonsense for a few hundred dollars of tokens.
Any guesses where the biggest surprises will be found?
“On Tuesday night, I cried, and it woke my daughter. [OpenAI] annihilated my field of research. They wanted to prove they could massacre us.”
these are the words of Fields Medalist, Hugo Duminil-Copin, who was working on 16 problems OpenAI now claims it has solved.
and he says some mathematicians may now keep their research problems to themselves rather than share them publicly.
AI might actually make mathematics less open.
@johnennis It has to be recognized that modern generative AI models are a product of our entire civilization and perhaps they should be taxed in a way that benefits our entire civilization.
Prediction: the value of all verifiable tasks in the long run is 0. There is no profit there.
Anything where the success is defined in a finite and non-ambiguous way, it’s over. Value is 0.
The profits are all in taste/judgement related tasks where some like it and some hate it. Vibes only. No rationality.
Labs are hillclimbing verifiable tasks now and it might sound impressive that OpenAI found those math proofs but soon others will follow and players like DeepSeek will drive its cost to electricity.
Ambiguity is the life line and where the money is.
- Anything that’s irrational, vibe driven and controversial with no consensus definition of good is worth something.
- If the society all agree on what good looks like for a given task with no ambiguity, it’s worth 0.
- caveat: coming up with verifiable task to do is worth a lot because the ability to come up is not a verifiable task by itself
From the blog:
'AI chips shipped through 2027 could run tens to hundreds of millions of concurrent frontier-model agents. Running nonstop, these agents would supply as many weekly working hours as about 140–720 million full-time employees.
More efficient models could potentially support billions of agents on the same hardware. Applying DeepSeek V4 Pro serving benchmarks to the projected hardware supply yields approximately 1.9 billion concurrent agents supplying as many weekly working hours as 8 billion people each working 40 hours.
It can be hard to “feel the AGI” until you see an AI surpass you in a domain you care deeply about. This week, many mathematicians and physicists at @OpenAI had their Lee Sedol moment seeing this model solve, in minutes, open problems they’d struggled with for years.
There’s a joke that goes something like “animals are a technology invented by plants to move seeds around” and this is the sense in which I think AI is a technology invented by humans to perform cognitive tasks.
Can foreign attacks strengthen the regime they seek to weaken? Presenting empirical evidence that the 2026 US–Israeli strikes reduced anti-regime protest and boosted pro-regime mobilization, from @ProfSultanEcon, @lwantchekon, and Yaroslav Prokhorskoy https://t.co/gYxLYM4shN
"Interviewees describe hacking little girls’ phones to see when their fathers came home and then bombing their houses, listening while the people on the line screamed and pleaded for help, while mothers cried over their burning daughters."
Please read this.
@Replit TBH the UI for tasks with all projects being shown in the sidebar is much worse than before. Navigating between main and tasks is terrible now, and finding suggested tasks is way harder. Finding cancelled tasks has always been too hard because it's so easy to accidentally cancel.
@claudeai Are scholars who do mathematical research in social science eligible? Really sad to see the social sciences and humanities so callously discarded by the AI labs.
This might not make me popular but I remain continuously impressed by Carney: to me, one of the few (if not the only) genuine statesman in the West.
It genuinely takes incredible balls and statesmanship - especially for Canada, arguably the western country that's most dependent on the US - to walk away from the table and match Trump's tariffs China-style.
Europe, with far less dependence on the US and considerably more resources than Canada, just pathetically caved and signed on Trump's humiliating terms when in the same situation.
They are discussing using nuclear weapons on Iran in strategy meetings.
Yes you read that correctly. It’s real. I’m not speculating, I know.
And it’s pure evil.
The last time a nuclear weapon was used was August 6th and 9th of 1945 on two cities in Japan, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, immediately killing 110,000 people, vaporizing people at ground zero, and total deaths reached 214,000 by the end of the year from severe burns and trauma.
But the extreme suffering continued for the Japanese people from radiation sickness, skyrocketing cancer rates, and generational birth defects.
Not to mention wiping out all means of their economy.
And the suffering was so great that all of humanity vowed, “never again.”
Trump and his admin were told by our own intelligence that Iran was no where near creating a nuclear weapon, then Israel said the same line it’s repeated for decades, “Iran is only weeks away.”
So we bombed anyways, killed their leaders and innocent little children in a school, and Iran has controlled the Strait of Hormuz ever since and punished the region for their part in it.
And now our government is the one actually discussing lowering the nuclear threshold in order to use nuclear weapons against Iran even though Trump claims he’s won the war like 40 times and says the U.S. controls the SoH.
Trump promised no more foreign wars, but may actually be the one who delivers a nuclear holocaust that would likely drag the entire world into major conflict, economic depression, and mass human suffering we’ve never seen in our lifetimes and maybe throughout history.
People need to speak out and boldly stop this insanity.
America is not untouchable.
If and when that happens, everyone, and I do mean everyone, will hold ALL of those in leadership right now fully responsible for the rest of human history.
Do not use nuclear weapons and stop this war NOW.