Market update
$SPY fell below the rising 🟠5sma which makes the near term a little more cautious
$QQQ and $SMH remain stronger, above the rising 5 and
$IWM is a near term avoid, look a test of the 🟢 May low AVWAP
Today’s semiconductor melt-up obviously resembles post-1998 behavior (upper clip). ROC is well short of the 76-week reading at the March 2000 top (middle clip), but well ahead based on the 61-week interval since April 2025 (lower clip). Trailing stops, anyone?
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Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @nullcharts
Participation is expanding, as the median stock just pushed to its highest level since January 2022.
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Traders aren't listening as much to Fed speak as forward guidance and instead are pricing in rate hikes with more certainty than what's coming from US central bankers. Last week, US 2-year yields climbed to 50bp above the Fed funds rate, the biggest gap since late 2022.
AI energy, materials and water needs might be the catalyst for the 4th turning kicking into high gear. Might turn out that human workers will be cheaper than AI, given resource limitations.
Imagine that!