KimchiQuant

Specializing in tail risk.

[Denitsa Tsekova @denitsa_tsekova]

Cool breakdown of who’s winning (and losing) in prediction markets

Since early 2025:
• 100K+ Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000, nearly 2x the number that made that much
• Profits are heavily concentrated among a small group
• Everyone else, in aggregate, is down $131 M

[Robot James 🤖🏖 @therobotjames]

sports betting for profit

platforms like polymarket let you trade in and out of sports bets like financial markets.

trying this is probably not a good use of your time.
you should probably go outside.

but i wouldn't listen to me and you won't either.

so i wrote a thing

[pika2zero @ruggedpikachu]

Behold the best Poker Player in the world: This supposed @Polymarket 'insider' made $43.5K in a single day with a bluff.

He accumulated over 100K shares in the "US forces enter Iran by March 31st" market at 10c. That first spiked the odds. Then twitter users who were monitoring his wallet started talking about a potential insider. This added further fuel to the fire and with the fog of war everything escalated.

The playbook is simple:
> Buy a market with lots of uncertainty around it, close to expiry
> Potential insider
> Odds spike 10%
> People start fearing for their positions, others fomo in
> Odds spike 40%, short squeeze

GG well played. The bluff worked. He already flipped his entire position for a 4x profit.

[Justina Lee @justinaknope]

Three academics have built an "Adjudication Risk Index" for Polymarket resolutions based on how concentrated UMA holdings are

It argues the UMA voting mechanism works most of the time but UMA concentration raises the risk of misadjudication

[Nic @nicrypto]

This is Wild.

Deutsche Bank has developed an index that helps to predict the next TACO by Trump.

It has proven effective in previous big Trump pivots.

The "Pressure index" combines one-month change in approval ratings, one-year inflation expectations and performance of the S&P 500 & t-bill yields.

The higher it goes, the greater the chances of 🌮

[Parity @PredictParity]

Prediction Market Accuracy 1d before resolution

Out of 146,960 resolved markets. Odds at 50% are the most mispriced.

Interestingly both platforms have a negative bias meaning these markets consistently overprice yes as a outcome.

[Denitsa Tsekova @denitsa_tsekova]

We looked at the average bettor in Iran-related prediction markets.

In one of the most popular markets, ~90% of wallets bet $1,000 or less.

The 10 accounts that traded $1M+?
They only started betting after the initial news broke.

W/@justinaknope @rachaeldottle

[mahera @mahera777]

Kelly Criterion for Polymarket - Quick Cheat Sheet

Simplified formula & examples matching @jasper_b3ll ʼs article:

f = (p · b - q) / b
b = (1 - price) / price

Ex1: Yes $0.42 → 58% edge → 1/4 Kelly ≈6.9% bank

Ex2: Yes $0.65 → 72% edge → 1/4 Kelly ≈2.7%

Most use 1/4 - 1/6 Kelly. Small edge? Skip.

[jon becker @beckerrjon]

added polymarket data to the public dataset.

400m+ trades going back to 2020.

36gb compressed.

MIT licensed, free to download via @Cloudflare R2.

[Dexter's Lab @DextersSolab]

This Polymarket user built a weather AI bot

Now he's up $63,853 (started from just $27)

It bets on 0.1% odds and constantly makes +10,000%

I spent hours analyzing it so you don't have to

Here’s how he did it by combining Claude + weather APIs:

The bot ignores 50/50 odds completely.

Instead, it buys outcomes priced from 0.1% to 10% where upside is 20x.

Cheap shares.
Asymmetric payout.
Low hit rate needed.

That’s already enough to beat most traders.
But the real edge is data.

This bot tracks major weather forecast APIs in real time.

When Polymarket asks smth like:
“Will London hit 9°C tomorrow?”

Forecast models often already shifted hours earlier.
But Polymarket hasn’t.

So you get moments where YES is priced at 10%, while real probability is closer to 80%.

That gap is the trade.
And the bot is buying mispriced certainty.

Execution is boring on purpose:

> Scan markets
> Compare odds to forecast probabilities
> Ignore anything without big upside
> Buy cheap and hold to settlement

Same loop every time.

Each bet is small, usually $50-$200.

Lose a few.
Win one.
Still up by THOUSANDS.

That’s how $50 turns into $5,000 repeatedly.

Despite only 33% Win Rate, his PnL curve is always growing.

Why this works?

Weather is one of the most modeled things on Earth.

Airlines, energy grids, governments rely on the same data.

> APIs update fast
> Prediction markets lag
> Bots just harvest that delay

Important part most miss:

This isn’t magic or unreachable.
And these bots aren’t genius.

They just compare real probabilities to market odds and act faster than humans.

Btw regular traders avoid weather markets, which also decreases the competition.

That’s why weather markets look boring and quietly print for those who understand structure.

His profile: [https://t.co/kiiFnlNQb4]

I’m watching a few of these wallets closely.

Curious how long this inefficiency stays open.

Will share some wallets with you in my next post.

[KimchiQuant @KimchiQuant]

@macroarb @sersabr @HyperliquidX Thank you. Glad you found it interesting and helpful. It was great fun back and also very rewarding!

[KimchiQuant @KimchiQuant]

@poesdec Nice

[KimchiQuant @KimchiQuant]

Praying to our lord and saviour the holy Kimchi, spice of quant life. May your vitamins provide the necessary sustenance for us basement dwellers to generate alpha, for now and forever.

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

Barron Trump earned himself a nice $400,000 after insider trading Maduro's capture just hours before it happened

[Lirratø @itslirrato]

Someone just turned $35k into ~$300k betting on a US invasion of Venezuela...

Back when the market said there was only a 6% chance

His profile: https://t.co/PFar8yQSh7

If Maduro is actually ousted in January, this trader walks away with a massive payout

The timing is terrifyingly accurate

He knew the strike timeline before the Pentagon announced it?

[Piotr Pomorski @PtrPomorski]

We live in a time when it’s easier and more profitable to start a polymarket/kalshi hedge fund than a traditional one. #foodforthought

[poezdec 🫵😹 @poesdec]

burninggoat bought shares is really about to burn the goat? 🐐

fresh account just aped into yes that the goat burns while everyone else is doubting it but…

chances definitely went up after the goat collapsed two days ago and the city said they’re not even gonna lift it back up..

so now stream is off, security is probably lighter since the goat is already messed up... feels like prime timing if someone wants to burn the goat 🤫

i grabbed 5000 shares for $30, if it burns that’s an easy $5k

polymarket:
https://t.co/UFjGtTrUnI

burninggoat account:
https://t.co/BLiS6DqvQF

some quick lore:

goat built 59 times since 1966, burned 30 times and another 12 destroyed in other ways

recent burnings:
2001: a 51 year old american from cleveland thought it was an “official tradition”, burned the goat, got 18 days in jail, a fine, and his lighter confiscated.

2005: unknown people dressed as santa and a gingerbread man burned the goat using a flaming arrow.

2015: a 26 year old man smelling strongly of gasoline, with a burned face, was detained near the burning goat. later confessed, fined, and ordered to compensate the city.

2016: a 21 year old local used gasoline and set it on fire on opening day. caught via a hat left at the scene and DNA evidence.

2021: a 40 year old man burned the small goat on dec 12, then the big one on dec 17. got 6 months in prison and about $11k in compensation.

burn it for the culture 🙏🙏🙏

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

In Sweden there's this tradition of building a giant straw goat every year since 1966.

It is famous because vandals try to burn it down almost every year.

Recently, a fresh Polymarket user has started buying YES and can win $50,000 if it's set on fire.

Now check that username

[KimchiQuant @KimchiQuant]

@Polymarket 🐳

[KimchiQuant @KimchiQuant]

Bored at Christmas dinner? 🎄

We all know the drill. The conversation is lulling or veering into politics. You need a distraction.

Forget arguing about the past. Let’s bet on the immediate future.

Here is the Christmas Dinner Survival Guide (Market Edition). 🧵👇

[KimchiQuant @KimchiQuant]

Whether you're betting on Santa, Satoshi, or just betting on yourself to survive the holidays, I hope your portfolio stays green. 🕯️

Merry Christmas, degens. 🥂