Kirk Masci, CMT

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What just happened?

The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025.

What's happening? Let us explain.

(a thread)

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

We continue to see clear signs to be overweight equities here and this from @granthawkridge is another reason.

High beta stocks are breaking out relative to the S&P 500, while low volatility is breaking down.

[Dan Niles @DanielTNiles]

On March 31st, I titled my post “History May not Repeat Itself but it often does Rhyme.” In 1997 due to the Asian currency crisis and in 1998 due to the Russian bond default, the S&P despite having an intra-year drawdown of 11% and 19% respectively, finished the year up 31% and 27%. This was in year 3 and 4 of the internet infrastructure buildout. My view was 2026, which was year 4 of the AI buildout, would also see a solid rebound especially given a war can get walked back versus the structural issues in 97/98. In addition, Agentic AI was ramping which required 10-100x more tokens versus Chat-based AI.

After a 9% intra-year drawdown from 1/27-3/30, the S&P has now rebounded 12% with just one down day over the past 13 trading sessions as the war with Iran heads to a conclusion. It took just 11 trading days for the S&P RSI to go from oversold to overbought which is the fastest since 1982.

The Nasdaq has been even more impressive with a 13 consecutive day winning streak over which it gained 18%. This is the longest streak since 12 consecutive days of gains in 1992 with a gain of 16% for perspective.

Future positives include a new Chairman of the Fed likely by mid-May who was chosen largely due to his preference to cut rates and continue the easy money policies that have fueled this market over the past 3 years. In addition, the AI infrastructure buildout seems to be taking another step function higher with the emergence of Agentic AI earlier this year fueling token production which requires more hardware.

But first comes the meat of earnings. There was lackluster stock performance last week by important tech stocks which reported earnings such as $ASML (-1%), $TSM (flat) and $NFLX (-6%). In addition, their were mixed results by the big banks which reported this past week such as $WFC -5% but $C +6%. But despite this, the S&P financials sector as a whole still gained 3% with much better results seen in the S&P (+5%), Nasdaq (+7%), R2K (+6%) and Magnificent 7 (+9%.)

A 13% decline in WTI last week to $84 on positive Iran headlines was the major catalyst of the market rally. Having said that, it was in the mid-$60s before the war started and the S&P is at all-time record highs. Looking to what the market is discounting looking forward, the 12 month futures contract is about $71 and was down 3% last week but it was in the low-$60s prior to the war.

10 year treasury yields also seem to reflect the higher oil prices. They were close to 4.0% before the Iran war and while down from their highs of closer to 4.5% they are still around 4.25%.

Finally, the S&P is technically overbought as noted earlier due to the speed and gains during this 13 day rally.

As a result of the above factors of: 1) higher oil, 2) higher bond yields and 3) overbought technicals with the market at all-time record highs, the near-term risk versus reward in my opinion is not great. I am expecting a minor pullback. A sell the news reaction to the final settlement around Iran or further angst around the opening of the Strait and under what terms could easily do this as well especially if oil does not come down further. But I would use a minor pull-back to add exposure. During 1997/98 following those macro scares during the internet buildout, after the prior losses were recouped and the market went to new highs, the pullbacks were contained to around 5%.

All the best in the week ahead.

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

First they came for eggs... $WEAT

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

The current bull market is 3.5 years old and up 99.2%.

As we've noted many times, once bull markets get past their third birthday they rarely end anytime soon.

Over the past past 50 years, 5 made it past their 3rd birthday and those lasted eight years on average.

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

MS: We Are Likely in the Early Stages of Another Productivity Boom

Productivity Growth Appears To Be Turning Higher Again

[TrendSpider @TrendSpider]

Congress's most watched portfolio just got interesting

$TEM breaking out on high volume

[Sam Gatlin @sam_gatlin]

The short interest in software is at a fresh all-time high

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

It is rare to see a 7-day win streak that also gains >7%.

In fact, up 10% three months later would say to see an acceleration higher here could be the play.

The past 30 years it only happened 3 other times and the worst stocks did 6 months later was nearly a 19% gain.

[Kirk Masci, CMT @KirkMTrades]

@JDadastra Link not working papi

[Kirk Masci, CMT @KirkMTrades]

@Mr_Derivatives that would be the case of leverage in the first place

[Kirk Masci, CMT @KirkMTrades]

@mxsc100 Pay the TRADER!!!!!

[Misc100 @mxsc100]

300p trade caught today on livestream !

[Kirk Masci, CMT @KirkMTrades]

@JDadastra @AnyaAlis Cover of vogue magazine

[JD @JDadastra]

Tricky 10am range today on NQ. But we hung in there on stream and secured 100 points anticipating the sell

Using ES as confluence is a big part of my trading on stream. ES was showing clues of the sell early so we slapped it around on NQ

Targeted key time areas, 5min BISI, 5min order block, and finally the retest of the previous high for 100 points.

Executed live on screen as always

Come trade with us - https://t.co/wyd3OgDkDm

[JD @JDadastra]

120 points on stream today using time to anticipate a turtle soup. Something I talk about on stream often when anticipating delivery.

📈Took the soup right at the start of the 9:50am macro hitting the final target about 120 points higher at TMSO (the main time level target for the time model we were trading

I will be doing a free class on this model (and more goodies) this Wed after market close in Victory Unit Discord (Free to join and link in bio)

Will announce the free class here on X ahead of time

[Luc @investingluc]

I re-built the Fear & Greed index.

Wanted something deeper and actually accurate.

So I completely re-engineered it from scratch.

10+ inputs:
- volatility (VIX level + term structure)
- options positioning (put/call ratios, skew)
- trend (SPX vs 20d / 50d / 200d)
- market breadth (advancers vs decliners)
- new highs vs new lows
- momentum (sector leaders vs laggards)
- % of stocks above key ma's
- credit spreads (risk-on vs risk-off)
- flows (etf + fund inflows/outflows)
- sentiment (social + positioning data)

It's ludicrous that we are ~6% off ATHs in $SPY, and CNN's Fear & Greed Index is reading "extreme fear" at 16 (!!!).

My Fear & Greed Index 2.0 is reading 38.7

Definitely gives a better representation of where we currently are + potential room lower (or higher).

Made with @perplexity_ai's Computer again...will update reading daily.

[Kirk Masci, CMT @KirkMTrades]

@thebrianstonk the best ever

[JD @JDadastra]

Some people work to compete. Some people work to win. And some people work to dominate. There are big visions I have been working on and will be brining to life this year

Kingline was my baby, I started it back in late 2020. But the goals I have no longer fit in those walls. Our visions for the future simply no longer align. With me you will find two of the best live traders I know. @AnyaAlis and @100handlez

🏆Victory Unit is my new, (100% free to access) discord that will be dedicated to your success in not just trading, but all walks of life.

Free Live Nasdaq Trading Steams
Free Detailed Mentorship Material
Live Sessions on Time/Price Models
Fitness Programs That Deliver Results
Life Philosophy and Video Vlogs
Entrepreneurship Hacks that Breed Success
Perks, Benefits, Giveaways, & More

Its 100% free to join. I will continue to be streaming and trading live like always. But there is so much more to come. Victory is the mission and will remain the mission

Join us and align every element of your identity with your goals. https://t.co/wyd3OgDkDm

[Kirk Masci, CMT @KirkMTrades]

@JDadastra Love you daddy JD