Kirk Simon

Opportunistic investor. Opinions are my own and are not investment advice.

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

If you have patience, buying companies at 8-12x FCF with high capital returns (dividend + share reductions) is a great area to hunt. You just have to figure out if the FCF has a good chance of enduring. Tobacco names were in that camp until their recently big rally

[Allen Khatchatrian @allenkhatch]

I think the outflows due to retail and passive flows will create a lot of opportunity for buying up good companies at lower prices. Interesting to see how many of the long-term private investors sell over time

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

@HettyGreen2020 @Trollalala12 @TheIcahnist This is a great point; need to see data on top 10 percentile, top 25 percentile and median outcomes. The skew is very real and favors the investor over the operator (who is betting years of their lives and often living in a city they don't love)

[Common Sense Investor (CSI) @commonsenseplay]

WARREN BUFFETT’S ONE CRITICAL PIECE OF ADVICE DURING A STOCK MARKET BUBBLE

During the dot-com bubble, Warren Buffett was asked about stocks skyrocketing 100–200% in a matter of weeks.

His response was a timeless reminder:
- "We've had a lot of speculative activity and all kinds of things over the years in markets and it frequently doesn't come to a good end"

- "But it will be with us 100 years from now just as it was a 100 years ago"

- "There is a lot of action and people are day trading and that sort of thing"

- "I have one piece i'd give is ...DON'T DO IT ON BORROWED MONEY"

Buffett warned that many people eventually get wiped out because stocks don’t go up forever, valuations can become extreme, and if you’re leveraged when prices fall, you don’t get to play out your hand. W

e’re seeing similar speculative surges today in sectors like quantum computing, nuclear, and flying cars. Whatever you do:

**Do NOT gamble with borrowed money.

One bad day is all it takes to end the game.**

[Allen Khatchatrian @allenkhatch]

I did a deep dive on $MGM about 6 weeks ago and the Barry Diller news just confirms how undervalued the company is. The Company has a ton of potential to create value across many levers, but the rent is making that difficult. I would like to see others step in here

[Tim Isgro @TimIsgro]

Charlie Munger once read a single magazine article, spent ninety minutes thinking about it, and made $80 million investing in the idea.
The company looked like a disaster. It had a ton of debt after five spinoffs in six years, and its revenues shrunk because of the 2001 recession. Principal payments on its debt were coming due that the company couldn't make.
I spent weeks reconstructing what Munger actually saw, down to finding the exact article he likely read in 2001.
New series at The Owner's Memo.
https://t.co/puPcZn7OfP

[The Icahnist @TheIcahnist]

Kirk Kerkorian Made $660 Million in One Day

A high school dropout who paid for flying lessons by shoveling manure became one of the greatest dealmakers of the twentieth century.

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

True, a good reminder - something many high achieving people struggle with. Travel is helpful to reframe the context of our lives

[Peter Yang @petergyang]

If you're stuck in the Bay Area tech rat race / psychosis, make time to travel to other places.

Go to a small town in Europe or visit Asia - you'll see that life can be about much more than whether you're IC7 or IC8 or what company you work for.

Don't be the person to put on your tombstone: "He got divorced and neglected his kids but at least he made D2 at FAANG"

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

If public, high quality software stocks with low leverage are down 60%+ from highs, the private market ones which are lower quality and higher leverage have to be down even more than that. Tough times in software PE land

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

It definitely feels like it right now

[(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook]

Momentum stocks are experiencing one of their sharpest rallies relative to minimum-volatility equities on record.

Source: @RealAlpineMacro

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

Healthcare (especially medtech/life sciences/etc) was loved 5 years ago and now disliked, especially in a risk-on environment. The risk/reward is getting way more interesting

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

Consensus not long ago was that CPUs were not needed in the AI world; now they are super in demand and seen as essential for AI agents. There is still so little known about how AI tech will ultimately unfold, and it's harder to make a long-term bet than many assume

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

So true

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

Warren Buffett on AI’s impact on opportunities for value investors:

“New things coming along doesn’t take away the opportunities…What gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things…And there’s been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things.”

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

Still stand by this a year later; needs to be M&A ASAP

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

Cable companies $cmcsa and $chtr need convergence with wireless, or else entire ecosystem is going to get tougher for everybody

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

@jmattjmattjmatt @eli_stowers3 @Eagles @VandyFootball You’re the man Jordan!

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

LPs sold private equity secondary fund stakes at a 14% discount in 2025 = the marks are vastly overstated

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

Wild stat - scamming organizations in Cambodia generated $19B of revenue in 2024, equivalent to 40% of the country's GDP (WSJ)

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

@Cole_Smead It’s ironic - the continual obsession with low oil prices discouraged investor flows and drilling capex, now it’s much needed but the industry is scarred and doesn’t trust the admin. Energy stocks still seem cheap and it’s shocking to me they haven’t increased more

[Kirk Simon @KirkSimon9]

@xbtsnow @TheRealEstateG6 Agreed