André Königsberg

Independent Investor | Critical Thinking | Public Market Research | Former IT Solutions Architect | Not investment advise

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

I'm bullish on ETH, and I hold it to the same standard as any stock - written thesis. Ethereum is becoming the settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized assets. Over the long run, I believe that makes ETH worth far more than today's price. $ETH, $ETHA

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

Linda is 31, outspoken, and studied philosophy. Is she more likely a bank teller, or a bank teller active in the feminist movement? Most people pick the second. It can't be more likely.

The same mental shortcut quietly drains investors' returns. Here's how, and the fix:
https://t.co/5AVydMH0ig

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

@TinaJucyBlue Fair point. I’m effectively pricing in significant L2 value leakage today — I’m not assuming L2 growth automatically accrues to ETH. The bull case is that blob demand eventually creates enough pricing power for Ethereum to recapture a larger share of that value.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

Is the market underpricing ETH? Here is my dated investment thesis. https://t.co/NlfUnLfLcq

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

@TechCharts Eventually it will resolve upwards.. but before it is due to correct lower

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

@TrendSpider Focus and never give up

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

Before I ask whether a business will do well, I check what its price already assumes. A wonderful company priced for flawless execution can still disappoint the stock even while beating expectations.

[Aksel Kibar, CMT @TechCharts]

$ETHUSD Preparing for the second attempt. I'm looking for a long white daily candle as confirmation. Previous spike can end up being an out of line movement.

[Ali Charts @alicharts]

ETHEREUM TARGETS $3,000

The last triangle breakout sent Ethereum surging 31% in just three days.

Now, another triangle is forming.

If $ETH breaks out again, a similar move could send it to $3,000.

[Ali Charts @alicharts]

Ethereum $ETH looks ready to move!

A breakout could come even before the CPI report.

Here's why.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

One of my five mistake categories is timing/patience error: right idea, right size, but I entered or exited for a reason outside the written thesis. A bored purchase, a headline-driven exit - the analysis was fine, the execution wasn't. Still logged as a mistake.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

@kevinxu Why not just buying $MSTR now and holding it until the next Bitcoin cycle top?

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

Markets reprice a narrative within hours. The businesses behind those prices change on a scale of years. That mismatch is where most of my opportunities come from - waiting for price to overreact to a story the fundamentals haven't caught up to yet.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

I don't start a valuation with earnings power. I start with what could break the business - debt maturities, financing quality, how it survives a hostile environment. Only once the downside looks bounded do I bother estimating the upside.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

When a winner grows past my sizing ceiling through appreciation, I don't auto-trim it. I write a fresh review: does the original thesis still justify this weight? Trimming a compounder just to satisfy a number on a spreadsheet is its own kind of mistake.

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

Bitcoin is rallying! As expected. The Bears were wrong.

And the rally in BTC is the front-runner of a powerful rotation-driven dynamics. From more "secure" assets - to less.

That is why Crypto rallies.

And then the important message:
The rally in BTC is likely (90% probability in my book) a "FOOL'S RALLY".

It is a rally - where everybody will believe that BTC is about to make new ATHs - and go to infinity - while it is only a BOUNCE in a BEAR MARKET.

So - enjoy the expected Crypto Bull Market. But understand - that this time it is (with high probability) only a bounce - and that the next leg lower will be devastating for BTC.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

I classify five kinds of mistakes, and the one investors forget is omission: a fully-researched idea inside my circle of competence that I never bought. It never touches my P&L, so it never gets punished - which is exactly why I log it anyway.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

Diversification looks great until the moment you actually need it. In a real selloff, correlations across asset classes converge toward one - everything falls together. My downside protection is margin of safety in each position, not just spreading bets across tickers.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

Cheap is not the same as undervalued. A low multiple can simply be the market correctly pricing a business in decline. Before I call something a value opportunity, I need a specific, falsifiable reason the market is wrong - not just a low number on a screen.

[André Königsberg @KonigsbergInv]

Not every macro headline demands a position, let alone an opinion. Most of what crosses my thinking changes nothing about the businesses I own or the price I would pay for them. Staying quiet on a debate is not indecision.