LALC Capital

Free picks by email: by Ludovico Cordara

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

Every microcap we picked this month, with the filed numbers behind each one, in one free PDF.

Sign up and it's yours: https://t.co/CQ9aHeN1Q5

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@HugoNavarroPer2 if the cheap bids come from indebted owners, how much of borr's own debt comes due before the middle east work is back?

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@Colosteve2000 haha happens. if they turn up we'd love a look

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@numbtidumpti interesting, what points you to a take-private?

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

Agora's CEO bought about $83K of $API ADSs on Nov 2 and 3, all through a trading plan set up back in June.

How much does a plan buy tell you, next to a buy the insider decides on the day?

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

Strattec ($STRT) holds $111.8M of cash and no debt, about 45% of its market value. Last quarter it bought back 67,904 shares at an average $73.24; the stock closed at $61.96 on 6 Nov. It says it has an active acquisition funnel. Where does the cash go next, buybacks or a deal?

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

Full write-up, with the quarterly table and the filings: https://t.co/6eOX86Gld4

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

Strattec ($STRT) holds $111.8M of cash and no debt, about 45% of its market value. Last quarter it bought back 67,904 shares at an average $73.24; the stock closed at $61.96 on 6 Nov.

It says it has an active acquisition funnel. Where does the cash go next, buybacks or a deal?

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

The risks: Q1 sales fell 3% to $147.2M and net income to $4.8M from $8.5M, including $2.4M of business development costs. GM, Ford and Stellantis were 64% of Q1 sales, and the Gabelli group holds about 19.7% of the shares.

Not investment advice.

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

The numbers that carry it:

$45.7M of operating cash flow in the 12 months to 27 Sep, vs $7.0M of capex
Q1 gross margin 16.5%, up from 15.6% in Q4
$35.0M left under the buyback program
the CEO, a director and the CFO's spouse bought about $286K of stock in May at $61.37 to $62.71

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@Gautam__Baid happy diwali gautam!

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@LowAlphaHighVol flows explain most of it imo. money chasing semis gets funded out of china internet, so it's one trade showing up on two charts

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@rkd2281992 depends on the price imo. 10% growth at 6x earnings is fine, 30x is the crime

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@_mikemcdermott could be, that letter gives the marketplace real leverage. we'd still bet on a deal before launch though, it's one partner out of that 30%, not all of it

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

Friday scorecard: every pick since last Friday, to Thursday's close, losers included.

$PRTS -8.4%
$AEYE -7.4%
$GLRE +8.5%
$UTMD +1.5%
$FLXS -2.1%
$FNKO picked today, no close yet

The whole book since our first call on 29 Sep: +3.8%.

Every call and its return: https://t.co/HpdpTFFzvm

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@leevalueroach the price was the call option holders got, and it only bites above the strike. below it they keep the carry, provided the ebay stake holds up into maturity

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@_mikemcdermott marketplaces, ebay and amazon included, were about 30% of sales this year, so losing one hurts but isn't the whole business. our bet is a compromise before launch, a buyout feels like a stretch

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@Floe_FS lol the abel puns write themselves

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@_mikemcdermott yeah a week says nothing, the track record keeps counting. on ebay: an unnamed big marketplace told them in october it'll drop them as a seller once CarParts Connect launches. talks to come

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@marketplunger1 @RealJimChanos funds that have to stay fully invested can't go to cash when they get nervous about ai, so they park it in staples

[LALC Capital @LALC_Capital]

@calvinblissett about 700M fixed, the 2030 notes at 5% and 6.75%. the other ~770M floats off sofr (term loan plus revolver), no swaps that we saw. so about 1.5B all in, our 1.3B left out what's due within a year