Seve

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@CWB_Research Possible. I'd argue consensus is sandbagged. Pre orders open in a few weeks. GTA V consensus were off by 100%. I think the anecdotals support another meaningful surprise. Further upside doesnt come from the multiple, but monetising the property.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

$TTWO
Worth remembering the GTA V timeline: Pre launch expectations were 14m units. Actual was 29m in 6 weeks. 230m over 12 years. Have to assume GTA VI is larger TAM. Zelnick canny keeping expectations very much in check.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

4/ Granted console is a limiter medium term. But.
GTA Online.
That is all.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

Worth remembering the GTA V timeline:
1/ pre launch expectations were 14m units. Actual was 29m in 6 weeks. 230m over 12 years. Have to assume GTA VI is larger TAM. Zelnick canny keeping expectations very much in check.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

3/ Given where stock is and the delay, the cultural phenom this property represents pre orders in next few weeks will be something to behold.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@Crussian17 @Wambscapital Went back to check on Trailer 2. Reminder: 30m views in 7 hours. TAM is big.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@Crussian17 @Wambscapital Trailer 3 release should be imminent too right. Was surprised move lower on an upgrade yday. Should be a bunch of hard catalysts next few weeks.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@PassionAndLuck which is right? Polymarket or SATS share price? Stock off another 4% after hours is sketchy. I'm wondering if the equity mkts are pricing insto reaction, polymkt retail? Tradfi really bitching about Elon dumping on retail, the valuation.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@origoinvest Morning mate, what hold co discount do you assume for SATS? Seems closer we get to SpaceX IPO SATS uniqueness is eroded and ever larger discount on Ergen?

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@BDeveran hello mate, what hold co discount are you assuming? Seems as we get closer to IPO, and access, s/holders placing ever larger discount on being held captive by Charlie Ergen. That can persist for a while.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@PassionAndLuck @Money_or_Life_X Agreed. So why the discount? You have anything other than 1/ mkt applying greater hold co discount because of Charlie 2/ Space x isn’t coming at 2tn 3/ there is a weirdly high cohort of SpaceX holders hedging lower than where speculation it will come. Concerned I’m missing smthg

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@origoinvest 😂

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@Crussian17 Agree - but do we know why the reversal? I've seen nothing on it.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@wtp345 @stevehou totally agree. Possible another bout of bombs as a show of 'force'. Then some made up long term agreement that is so loose Iran doesnt even need to pretend to adhere.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@DeepInference why do you think its trading so poorly out of interest?

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@MikeZaccardi big move in SBAC.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

@BDeveran SpaceX 2trn valn.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

Also means we're probably closer to 1 or 2 than 3. This was never on the cards. Reckon can buy some here.

[Seve @LDDBCap]

Trying to think of a framework for path forward. Three options as I see them. Option 1: He's crashed the car. Hands back the keys. Your problem now. Claims regime change and decreased capability. Not ideal. Messy. Mkt finds a way to muddle through....

[Seve @LDDBCap]

I thought this was 4D chess. They must have gamed this out. But the gap between the bombs and the troops makes me think they miscalculated: The Iranians always had SoH strangle and economic repurcussions as their defence. Speed was important.