Lisa Reisman

Lisa Reisman, Founder CEO MetalMiner. Industrial metal prices, forecasting and public policy. Mom of 3 boys on the go-go.

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@DavidSacks That was hysterical

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend @PatrickCeresna @DrPippaM @biancoresearch Greatest POV on the economy ever Pippa! Fantastic! So nice not to hear from the sooner crowd! Great take on Iran!!! This really made me think!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@havivrettiggur Well said Haviv!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@EYakoby Now expel any of those students who blocked you!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@AmitSegal FAFO

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@chamath Egregious!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@Gaurab @MetalMiner has grain oriented electrical steel forecasts and tracks prices across multiple regions!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

Critical minerals are no longer a niche issue. They are central to industrial competitiveness, procurement strategy, and supply chain resilience. Proud to see MetalMiner included in this deep dive from @chamath

[Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath]

https://t.co/20b1VnWcUn

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

Intelligent analysis....

[M.A. Rothman @MichaelARothman]

𝐕𝐃𝐇: 𝐈𝐑𝐀𝐍 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐓 𝐀 𝐇𝐀𝐋𝐅 𝐓𝐑𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐃𝐎𝐋𝐋𝐀𝐑𝐒 𝐀𝐍𝐃 𝐈𝐓𝐒 𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐈𝐑𝐄 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐈𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐘. 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐌𝐄𝐃𝐈𝐀 𝐖𝐎𝐍'𝐓 𝐓𝐄𝐋𝐋 𝐘𝐎𝐔.

Victor Davis Hanson just did what no one in legacy media will do. He looked at the Iran war empirically.

The verdict isn't close.

Iran — 𝟗𝟑 𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐩𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐥𝐞, the largest military power in the Middle East by every measure, feared by the Gulf monarchies and Europeans alike — has just suffered one of the most lopsided asymmetric defeats in modern history.

Hanson: "𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘶𝘯𝘶𝘴𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘰 𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘴𝘺𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘤 𝘸𝘢𝘳, 𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘱𝘰𝘸𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘔𝘪𝘥𝘥𝘭𝘦 𝘌𝘢𝘴𝘵."

The scorecard:

Iran has lost 𝐡𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 — possibly 𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐟 𝐚 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐫𝐬 — in a half-century of investment in missiles, drones, submarines, and capital ships. Gone.

Their command and control is "𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘳𝘥 𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘳." Nobody — not the theocracy, not the IRGC, not the political class, not the army — knows who's actually in charge. They're afraid of each other. They're afraid to look soft. And they're afraid that cutting a deal means "𝘸𝘦'𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘨𝘰𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘸𝘦'𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯𝘦."

Meanwhile, the American left spent one day calling Trump a warmonger and a "𝘏𝘪𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘧𝘪𝘨𝘶𝘳𝘦." The next day, after he announced negotiations, they called him a "𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘰" — a Neville Chamberlain, a Jimmy Carter.

Hanson nailed the pathology. They don't analyze the war empirically. They analyze it politically. In his words, Tom Friedman and Bill Kristol "𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘧𝘦𝘦𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘯 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯 𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘣𝘦 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘵 𝘸𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘩𝘶𝘳𝘵 𝘋𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘥 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱."

𝟏𝟎𝟎,𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐞𝐫𝐬 are in that theater right now. Risking their lives to make sure Iran never puts a nuclear-tipped missile on Tel Aviv, London, or eventually Chicago. And half the political class is 𝐫𝐨𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 because of who's in the Oval Office.

Read that again.

And the losers don't stop at Tehran.

𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚: no more Venezuela. No more Latin America. No more Middle East. Assad is gone. The drone pipeline with Iran is severed. Bogged down in Ukraine, bleeding over a million and a half casualties.

𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚: took 80 percent of all Iranian oil. That pipeline is now contingent on the United States. And Beijing just watched America broadcast to the world that it's about to mass-produce a half-million to a million drones. Any fantasy of crossing 110 nautical miles to take Taiwan just got a lot more expensive.

𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞, in Hanson's words, is "𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘨 𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘳." We asked them for bases and airspace. That was it. Spain closed its embassy in Israel — "𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴, 𝘚𝘱𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵." France wouldn't let us use its airpower or clean up H-z-b in Lebanon, its own post-colonial responsibility. Italy wouldn't let our bombers land in Sicily. The United Kingdom — the nation that built the Royal Navy — "𝘤𝘢𝘯'𝘵 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘳" to protect its own base in Cyprus.

Turkey, a NATO member, is openly siding with Iran and threatening a NATO partner, Israel.

Hanson's verdict: "𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘕𝘈𝘛𝘖, 𝘯𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺." Going forward, the United States will pick and choose which NATO members are actually worth the alliance. The rest are "𝘦𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘯𝘦𝘶𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘰𝘳 𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘭𝘦."

And the Strait of Hormuz? The left spent two weeks shrieking that closure would end the world. Reality: it carries 𝟐𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭 of world oil, 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝟖𝟎. The Saudis are expanding their Red Sea pipeline. The Emirates are expanding theirs. A pipeline across the desert through Jordan to Haifa is on the table. Within a few years, the Gulf "𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘷𝘦 𝘐𝘳𝘢𝘯." Their leverage becomes their liability.

If the war ends in two or three weeks, Hanson estimates seven months to economic recovery. Then comes the realization.

Iran is not threatening the Middle East. Iran has no ballistic missile threat. Iran has no immediate path to a nuclear weapon. Iran has no military. Its command and control is wiped out. Its population is stewing.

"𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘞𝘢𝘭𝘭."

Not the next day. Not the next month. But within months — or within two years, like the Soviet Union — regime change.

This war was fought on Western American terms. No Fallujah. No house-to-house in Taji. No villages in Afghanistan where you can't tell friend from enemy. The asymmetry — by design — was total.

The 24-hour news cycle will keep shrieking. The Democrat-media borg will keep cycling through whichever narrative hurts Trump most that morning.

But the map has already been redrawn. 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝. 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐝. 𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤. 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐯𝐞𝐬.

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@ChicagosMayor Your Iranian community supports the war, fyi

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@BillAckman @mihaschw @X FIght! Fight! Fight! If not you, who will? It’s not a money thing is a moral and ethical thing. I can think of another high profile situation garnering a lot of media attention that shares some similarities to your situation….

[Arsen Ostrovsky @Ostrov_A]

From Von Clausewitz to Sun Tzu, you seriously won’t find a better military theorist today than @SpencerGuard. This is some must read analysis by him on the Iran war!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@Osint613 Keep em coming

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@Saul_Sadka I dropped this vapid publication years ago. the Economist has lost its way….

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@OliaOnX @joelmowbray @jaredkushner @IvankaTrump @TuckerCarlson @TCNetwork @megynkelly @MegynKellyShow 100%

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@joelmowbray @jaredkushner @IvankaTrump @TuckerCarlson @TCNetwork @megynkelly @MegynKellyShow It sounds like Tucker is having a mental health crisis. He doesn't know anything about Chabad. Rabid anti-Semitism stems from profound insecurity.

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@havivrettiggur This analysis does not consider the IDF and US destroying missile launchers, sites, and missile production facilities faster than Iran produces missiles as a way to slow consumption of interceptors.

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@havivrettiggur Spot on Haviv!!!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@David_Khait @RashidaTlaib facts!

[Lisa Reisman @LReismanMM]

@KamalaHarris Yeah you guys did a great job of keeping American soldiers out of harm’s way. Nice Afghanistan exit…. No harm now fowl. Just American lives lost. Wrong side of history….