Rachel Reeves’ first budget marked a significant tax-raising event. Tax rises immediately after an election are not unprecedented, but the net tax rise announced at this budget was of a scale we have not seen for many years.
Poorer and younger households will be most impacted by the bus fare cap increasing to £3. The lowest income fifth take twice as many £2+ bus trips than the richest, and those under 30 take almost 4 times as many as the over 60's.
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This morning’s @ONS inflation data shows CPI was 2.2% in August, unchanged from July and in line with expectations. Details a bit disappointing with measures of underlying inflation remaining sticky. Not a lot here to encourage a BoE rate cut tomorrow. Short thread to follow...
📈 Following the General Election, living standards growth must be on the agenda for the new government.
@LalithaTry, Economist at the @resfoundation, explores new research on how living standards have changed over the last Parliament and since 2010 👇
https://t.co/CeekTvolfs
Services inflation also came in below expectations. Was 5.2% in July, less than the BoE's latest forecast (5.6%) and market expectations (5.5%).
This is a big surprise just 1 month into the August MPR forecast.
Overall then, the rise in headline inflation was smaller than expected, and the concentration of news in services is a positive sign for domestic price pressures easing. Combined with yesterday’s weak wage data, this boosts the chances of further rate cuts later this year.