If you are making a prediction on how the SpaceX IPO will perform based on 'fundamentals' you are missing the point.
You should look at who is incentivized to make absolutely certain it trades well and why they are incentivized.
Thats all the will matter for now.
Gavin Baker is one of the best tech investors alive and he explains why the AI cycle might actually avoid a bubble.
Every major technology in history ended in a bubble. Railroads, canals, the internet and even the PC. Every single one.
The pattern is always the same:
1. Investors get excited about a genuine breakthrough
2. Diversity of opinion breaks down
3. Everyone converges on the same thesis
4. Valuations disconnect from reality and then it collapses.
But Baker thinks AI is different this time and that's because of a physical constraint that no past technology ever had:
Watts and wafers.
TSMC is run by what he calls "flinty old men and women" who view themselves as the guardians of the most important institution in Taiwan. Jensen Huang flies to Taipei every three months and pushes them to double or triple capacity. They expand about 5%.
Here's Baker's math:
If TSMC actually gave Jensen what he wanted, Nvidia could probably sell $1.5 to $2 trillion worth of chips next year. He really believes that. The demand is there.
But a boom that size would almost certainly end in a bust. And a bust is catastrophic for TSMC. So TSMC's conservatism isn't a bottleneck. It's a release valve. A real-world physical constraint that enforces discipline on the whole cycle and prevents the kind of overbuilding that turned the internet boom into the dot-com crash.
Baker believes TSMC is the key reason why we won't have an AI bubble.
@BlackScholesMan Just came back from a stressful trip. He needs rest. Canโt fly to Miami all the time, right. Plus, weather is so hot to play golf in Miami nowโฆ
Tรผrkiye, kendi kendine sรผrekli sorunlar yaratan sonra da o sorunlarฤฑ รงรถzmeye รงalฤฑลmak yerine unutturmak iรงin yeni ve daha bรผyรผk sorunlar yaratan bir รผlkedir.
รlkeler 4'e ayrฤฑlฤฑr: Geliลmiล รผlkeler, Geliลmekte olan รผlkeler, Arjantin ve Tรผrkiye.
Investing is risky.
Relying on a paycheck is risky.
Building a business is risky.
Everything in life carries risk.
But the biggest risk is standing still while inflation eats away at your future.